Fakel hosts FC Orenburg in the Russia: Premier League on August 22. The recent form storyline is that both teams are coming off draws, with Fakel drawing 0-0 against Akhmat and FC Orenburg drawing 1-1 against Lokomotiv.
The model predicts a draw as the most likely match result. This match is expected to be low-scoring, with an average of 1.5 goals expected and the most likely total number of goals being 1. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a probability of 24.4%.
Fakel's home form is modest, scoring an average of 1.23 goals at home and conceding 0.54 goals. FC Orenburg's away form is similarly unimpressive, scoring 0.83 goals away and conceding 1.67 goals.
The model's selection is the draw, with a 40% probability. The draw percentage is 40%. The home win percentage is 32%, and the away win percentage is 29%. The model also suggests selecting Under 3.5 goals, which has a 93.9% probability and an 18% edge. Over 21.5 fouls is another selection, with a 89.3% probability.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as the match finished 0-0, a draw that extends both sides’ recent streaks of mixed results. The pre-match favourite was a draw, assigned a 40 % probability, and the model’s call was correct. The most likely scoreline was 0-0 with a 24.4 % chance, and the expected total of 1.5 goals matched the single goalless outcome. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 100 %, Under 6.5 at 99.9 %, Under 5.5 at 99.6 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.4 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 99.2 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5 %, and Under 4.5 at 98.3 %. The model’s selections all delivered as forecast.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fakel win✗ Miss
32.3%
Avg Implied 37.8% · @ 2.50
Edge
-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.62
Pinnacle
2.56
Marathonbet
2.55
Dafabet
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Draw✓ Hit
39.7%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.21
Edge
+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.34
Pinnacle
3.27
Marathonbet
3.26
Dafabet
3.25
Superbet
3.15
FC Orenburg win✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied 32.7% · @ 2.89
Edge
-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.97
Marathonbet
2.92
Dafabet
2.90
Superbet
2.85
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fakel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.90
1.35
0.82
1.38
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.44
0.81
1.44
0.81
1.45
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Orenburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.67
1.08
1.15
0.71
2.06
vs Stronger (20)
0.60
1.95
0.67
1.44
0.55
2.36
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.10
2.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Fakel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (31%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.2%
@ 1.35-24.7%
Under 1.5
55.8%
@ 2.99+24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.12
Superbet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.95
1xBet
2.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.2%
@ 2.19-25.5%
Under 2.5
81.8%
@ 1.70+25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.24
Pinnacle
2.23
SBO
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
Under
1xBet
1.76
SBO
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Superbet
1.65
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
6.1%
@ 3.89-17.8%
Under 3.5
93.9%
@ 1.23+17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.10
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.78
1xBet
3.78
Under
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
28.1%
@ 1.85-22.1%
No
71.9%
@ 1.86+22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
No
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0 ✓
24.4%@ 8.30+19.1%
1-0
16.5%@ 6.92+10.2%
0-1
14.9%@ 7.64+9.1%
1-1
13.6%@ 5.63+5.8%
2-0
6.8%@ 11.19+2.9%
0-2
5.6%@ 13.49+2.3%
2-1
4.7%@ 9.35+0.1%
1-2
4.3%@ 10.21+0.0%
Fakel goals ↓
FC Orenburg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
24%
15%
5.6%
1.3%
0.2%
1
17%
14%
4.3%
1.0%
0.2%
2
6.8%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
3
1.7%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
4
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fakel goals (down), columns = FC Orenburg goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Krasnodar
3.00
Spartak Moscow
2.17
CSKA Moscow
2.00
Zenit
2.00
Dynamo
1.67
Baltika
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.50
Rubin
1.50
FC Orenburg
1.17
Krylia Sovetov
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
FC Rostov
0.83
Rodina Moskva
0.67
Akron
0.50
Lokomotiv
0.50
Fakel
0.33
Fakel is 0.83 points worse than FC Orenburg in terms of average points per game (0.33 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zenit
2.17
Spartak Moscow
1.83
FC Krasnodar
1.83
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
Baltika
1.67
CSKA Moscow
1.50
Akhmat
1.50
Rubin
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.33
Dynamo
1.33
Rodina Moskva
1.33
FC Rostov
1.17
Akron
1.00
Lokomotiv
0.83
FC Orenburg
0.83
Fakel
0.50
Fakel is 0.33 goals worse than FC Orenburg in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Krasnodar
0.67
Zenit
0.67
Spartak Moscow
0.83
CSKA Moscow
1.00
Baltika
1.00
Fakel
1.17
Dynamo
1.17
FC Orenburg
1.17
Akhmat
1.33
Lokomotiv
1.33
Rubin
1.33
Krylia Sovetov
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
FC Rostov
1.67
Akron
2.50
Rodina Moskva
2.83
Fakel and FC Orenburg are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dynamo
63%
Spartak Moscow
62%
Zenit
60%
CSKA Moscow
57%
FC Krasnodar
57%
Akron
54%
Lokomotiv
51%
FC Rostov
49%
Fakel
48%
Akhmat
47%
Rubin
47%
Krylia Sovetov
46%
Rodina Moskva
44%
Dinamo Makhachkala
40%
FC Orenburg
39%
Baltika
36%
Fakel is 9.0 percentage points better than FC Orenburg in terms of average possession (48% vs 39%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fakel
For 6.0 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 12.2 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Orenburg
For 4.7 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 14.7 · Total 29.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fakel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.6
9.8
3.0
3.0
3.0
28.0
30.0
25.6
vs Stronger (7)
10.7
12.0
9.3
4.9
4.5
5.3
27.5
31.7
23.3
vs Similar (43)
9.9
9.5
10.3
2.7
2.7
2.7
28.6
28.3
29.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
69%
57%
83%
44%
38%
50%
91%
100%
80%
% under line
31%
43%
17%
56%
62%
50%
9%
0%
20%
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Orenburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.2
10.3
4.5
5.0
4.0
28.2
30.2
26.0
vs Stronger (32)
10.1
10.6
9.5
4.8
5.1
4.5
29.2
30.8
27.3
vs Similar (18)
10.5
9.4
11.6
4.0
5.0
3.2
26.4
29.0
23.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
59%
60%
58%
64%
79%
50%
90%
95%
84%
% under line
41%
40%
42%
36%
21%
50%
10%
5%
16%
This opponent (Fakel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rodina Moskva
11.8
CSKA Moscow
10.5
FC Orenburg
10.2
Dynamo
10.0
Zenit
9.7
Akhmat
9.4
Krylia Sovetov
9.4
Akron
9.2
Fakel
9.2
Spartak Moscow
9.2
Lokomotiv
9.2
Dinamo Makhachkala
8.9
Rubin
8.6
FC Rostov
8.4
FC Krasnodar
8.4
Baltika
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spartak Moscow
5.2
Baltika
5.1
FC Krasnodar
5.0
FC Rostov
4.9
Lokomotiv
4.6
Rubin
4.6
Krylia Sovetov
4.6
CSKA Moscow
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.5
Akhmat
4.4
Dynamo
4.4
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.4
Fakel
4.2
Zenit
4.0
Akron
3.9
Rodina Moskva
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Baltika
30.3
Spartak Moscow
29.9
Dinamo Makhachkala
29.5
FC Krasnodar
29.1
Akhmat
28.8
Rubin
28.8
FC Rostov
28.7
FC Orenburg
28.2
Fakel
27.8
Dynamo
27.6
Rodina Moskva
27.5
Lokomotiv
27.4
Akron
27.3
Zenit
27.2
CSKA Moscow
26.6
Krylia Sovetov
26.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
50.9%
@ 1.91+2.1%
Under 9.5
49.1%
@ 1.82-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.79
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.6%
Under 3.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
88.9%
Under 21.5
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fakel or Draw✓ Hit
72.0%
Avg Implied 67.3% · @ 1.41
Edge
+4.8%
32%
40%
28%
covers Fakel + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.39
SBO
1.35
Fakel or FC Orenburg✗ Miss
60.3%
Avg Implied 70.5% · @ 1.34
Edge
-10.3%
32%
40%
28%
covers Fakel + FC Orenburg
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
Superbet
1.33
SBO
1.29
Draw or FC Orenburg✓ Hit
67.7%
Avg Implied 62.2% · @ 1.52
Edge
+5.5%
32%
40%
28%
covers Draw + FC Orenburg
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Superbet
1.50
SBO
1.48
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fakel over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
53.6%
@ 1.32-17.3%
Under
46.4%
@ 3.23+17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.36
Marathonbet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Fakel over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
18.0%
@ 2.58-18.6%
Under
82.0%
@ 1.49+18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.72
Marathonbet
2.57
Superbet
2.55
1xBet
2.48
Under
1xBet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Fakel over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 6.20-10.7%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.09+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.40
1xBet
6.20
Superbet
6.00
Under
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Fakel over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 16.00-5.1%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.01+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Under
Superbet
1.01
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
50.1%
@ 1.38-17.8%
Under
49.9%
@ 2.92+17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
Marathonbet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.02
Marathonbet
2.89
1xBet
2.89
Superbet
2.87
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
15.4%
@ 2.87-17.6%
Under
84.6%
@ 1.41+17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.03
Marathonbet
2.86
Superbet
2.82
1xBet
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.41
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 7.33-9.3%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.06+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Superbet
7.00
Under
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
FC Orenburg over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.6%
@ 19.00-4.5%
Under
99.4%
@ 1.01+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Under
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fakel, so a minus line means Fakel give that many goals of a start and FC Orenburg receive them. At -1, Fakel must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fakel win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fakel)Actual: FC Orenburg
Fakel -2
2.4%
@ 8.93-7.1%
Draw -2
8.1%
@ 5.67-6.8%
FC Orenburg +2
89.4%
@ 1.12+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.85
Draw
Superbet
6.70
Marathonbet
4.65
Away
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Handicap -1 (Fakel)Actual: FC Orenburg
Fakel -1
10.6%
@ 5.03-7.5%
Draw -1
21.7%
@ 4.03-0.9%
FC Orenburg +1
67.7%
@ 1.53+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.20
Superbet
4.85
Draw
Marathonbet
4.15
Superbet
3.90
Away
Marathonbet
1.55
Superbet
1.52
Handicap +1 (Fakel)Actual: Fakel
Fakel +1
72.0%
@ 1.42+7.9%
Draw +1
19.5%
@ 4.40-1.1%
FC Orenburg -1
8.4%
@ 6.00-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.44
Superbet
1.40
Draw
Marathonbet
4.50
Superbet
4.30
Away
Marathonbet
6.30
Superbet
5.70
Handicap +2 (Fakel)Actual: Fakel
Fakel +2
91.6%
Draw +2
6.7%
FC Orenburg -2
1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fakel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.53
0.41
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.52
0.56
0.44
0.73
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Orenburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.70
0.38
0.62
0.24
0.76
vs Stronger (20)
0.10
0.75
0.11
0.67
0.09
0.82
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Fakel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
65.4%
@ 1.46+1.1%
Under 0.5
34.6%
@ 2.64-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.45
Under
Pinnacle
2.75
1xBet
2.60
Superbet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.60
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
26.4%
@ 3.19-3.1%
Under 1.5
73.6%
@ 1.33+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.26
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Under
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.8%
@ 8.47-2.2%
Under 2.5
91.2%
@ 1.04+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
8.70
Superbet
8.00
Under
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fakel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.1%
@ 2.17+0.2%
Under
56.9%
@ 1.64-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.22
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
Superbet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Fakel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.4%
@ 7.53-2.9%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.06+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.90
Superbet
6.80
Under
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Fakel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 24.00-98.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.1%
@ 2.32-0.1%
Under
59.9%
@ 1.56+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.39
Superbet
2.30
1xBet
2.29
Marathonbet
2.29
Under
Pinnacle
1.59
1xBet
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 8.53-0.9%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.04+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
Marathonbet
9.00
Superbet
7.60
Under
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 30.00-98.7%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fakel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
0.82
0.41
0.77
0.31
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.30
0.88
0.38
0.73
0.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Orenburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.97
0.69
0.54
0.47
1.29
vs Stronger (20)
0.50
1.20
0.56
0.78
0.45
1.55
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Fakel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
72.0%
Under 0.5
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.8%
Under 1.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.3%
Under 2.5
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fakel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
47.7%
Under
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.9%
Under
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
99.6%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.2%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
98.3%
1.03
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
96.6%
1.06
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
-
-
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
95.7%
1.09
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
-
-
+10.7%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
93.9%
1.23
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
-
+17.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.2%
1.04
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.6%
1.06
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.1%
1.04
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
89.4%
1.12
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-
-
+13.9%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
84.6%
1.41
1xBet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.41
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
-
+17.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
82.0%
1.49
1xBet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
-
+18.6%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
79.2%
1.32
1xBet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
73.6%
1.33
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.6%
1.28
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
72.0%
1.41
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.39
SBO
1.35
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
72.0%
1.42
Marathonbet
1.44
Superbet
1.40
-
-
-
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fakel
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Maksim Turishchev25%
Alexey Sutormin20%
Vyacheslav Yakimov17%
Darko Todorović0%
Belajdi Pusi0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Nikolay Giorgobiani0%
Butta Magomedov0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Albert Gabaraev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Axel Gnapi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Darko Todorović33%
Alexey Sutormin20%
Vyacheslav Yakimov17%
Nikolay Giorgobiani17%
Butta Magomedov17%
Albert Gabaraev17%
Axel Gnapi17%
Belajdi Pusi0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Maksim Turishchev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Belajdi Pusi20%
Nikolay Giorgobiani17%
Darko Todorović0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Vyacheslav Yakimov0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Alexey Sutormin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Butta Magomedov0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Maksim Turishchev0%
Albert Gabaraev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Axel Gnapi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vyacheslav Yakimov17%
Darko Todorović0%
Belajdi Pusi0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Alexey Sutormin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Nikolay Giorgobiani0%
Butta Magomedov0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Maksim Turishchev0%
Albert Gabaraev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Axel Gnapi0%
FC Orenburg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ruslan Kul33%
Andrey Kasadzhikov33%
Emil Tsenov20%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Maxime Sivis0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Aleksey Tataev0%
Gedeon Guzina0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Damián Puebla0%
Renat Golybin0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksey Tataev50%
Jhon Palacios50%
Evgeniy Bolotov33%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov20%
Danila Vedernikov20%
Emil Tsenov20%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy17%
Maxime Sivis17%
Gedeon Guzina17%
Ruslan Kul17%
Andrey Kasadzhikov17%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Damián Puebla0%
Renat Golybin0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maxime Sivis17%
Gedeon Guzina17%
Ruslan Kul17%
Andrey Kasadzhikov17%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Aleksey Tataev0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Damián Puebla0%
Renat Golybin0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Renat Golybin25%
Alexandre Jesus20%
Aleksey Tataev17%
Gedeon Guzina17%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Maxime Sivis0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Ruslan Kul0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Damián Puebla0%
Andrey Kasadzhikov0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
Fakel's squad is €5m less valuable than FC Orenburg's (€14m vs €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
FAK (10)
€5m
Fakel's attack is €3m less valuable than FC Orenburg's (€5m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
FAK (4)
€2m
Fakel's midfield is €2m less valuable than FC Orenburg's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
AKH (10)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
Fakel and FC Orenburg have a similar defence value (both €7m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
Zenit
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
Akhmat
Krylia Sovetov
FC Rostov
Rodina Moskva
Lokomotiv
Akron