Fakel’s recent draw-heavy run has left them still struggling to find the net, while Zenit’s away form shows a potent attack against weaker opposition. The model’s most confident pick is an away win, with a 59 % chance, followed by a 32 % draw and a 9 % home win. The expected total goals hover at 1.5, and the most likely scoreline is 0-1 for Zenit, with a 25.5 % probability. Fakel averages 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded at home against stronger sides, whereas Zenit averages 1.57 goals scored and 0.5 conceded on the road versus weaker teams. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (100 %), Home under 3.5 goals (100 %), Under 6.5 (99.9 %), Home under 2.5 goals (99.6 %), Under 5.5 (99.5 % with an 8 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.3 %), Away +2 handicap (98.7 %), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.7 %).
Results analysis
The Pythia model’s prediction proved spot on as Zenit claimed a 1-0 away win, extending their winning run while Fakel finished coming off a defeat. The model had chosen the away win with a 60% probability, and the result matched that call. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the predicted outcome. Every model selection performed as expected: Under 7.5 goals hit at 100%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 100%, Under 6.5 hit at 99.9%, Home under 2.5 goals hit at 99.6%, Under 5.5 hit at 99.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.8%, and Away +2 handicap hit at 98.7%. The model’s confidence in a low-scoring affair was fully justified.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fakel win✗ Miss
8.3%
Avg Implied 15.6% · @ 6.05
Edge
-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.51
Pinnacle
6.42
Marathonbet
6.35
Dafabet
6.00
SBO
5.51
Draw✗ Miss
31.7%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.90
Edge
+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.02
Dafabet
3.95
Pinnacle
3.95
Marathonbet
3.92
Superbet
3.90
Zenit win✓ Hit
60.1%
Avg Implied 60.1% · @ 1.57
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.59
Dafabet
1.59
Superbet
1.58
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fakel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.87
1.24
0.76
1.38
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.37
0.78
1.31
0.75
1.45
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Zenit) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zenit
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.53
1.50
0.56
1.57
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.33
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (26)
1.65
0.50
1.62
0.62
1.69
0.38
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Fakel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (31%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
46.8%
@ 1.34-22.6%
Under 1.5
53.2%
@ 3.05+22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Under
Superbet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.04
Marathonbet
2.95
1xBet
2.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.5%
@ 2.10-25.1%
Under 2.5
79.5%
@ 1.76+25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.22
Pinnacle
2.18
Marathonbet
2.15
SBO
1.99
Superbet
1.95
Under
SBO
1.83
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
7.3%
@ 3.73-17.7%
Under 3.5
92.7%
@ 1.24+17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.98
Marathonbet
3.78
1xBet
3.78
Superbet
3.40
Under
Superbet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
19.7%
@ 2.09-24.8%
No
80.3%
@ 1.67+24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Superbet
2.02
No
Superbet
1.71
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.64
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1 ✓
25.5%@ 5.21+17.2%
0-0
21.9%@ 8.95+17.1%
0-2
16.4%@ 6.14+9.3%
1-1
8.9%@ 6.96+2.6%
0-3
6.8%@ 10.70+2.8%
1-0
5.7%@ 12.82+2.3%
1-2
5.1%@ 7.94-0.4%
0-4
2.1%@ 20.86+0.0%
Fakel goals ↓
Zenit goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
22%
26%
16%
6.8%
2.1%
1
5.7%
8.9%
5.1%
2.1%
0.7%
2
1.0%
1.2%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
3
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
4
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fakel goals (down), columns = Zenit goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Krasnodar
3.00
Spartak Moscow
2.17
CSKA Moscow
2.00
Zenit
2.00
Dynamo
1.67
Baltika
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.50
Rubin
1.50
FC Orenburg
1.17
Krylia Sovetov
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
FC Rostov
0.83
Rodina Moskva
0.67
Akron
0.50
Lokomotiv
0.50
Fakel
0.33
Fakel is 1.67 points worse than Zenit in terms of average points per game (0.33 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zenit
2.17
Spartak Moscow
1.83
FC Krasnodar
1.83
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
Baltika
1.67
CSKA Moscow
1.50
Akhmat
1.50
Rubin
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.33
Dynamo
1.33
Rodina Moskva
1.33
FC Rostov
1.17
Akron
1.00
Lokomotiv
0.83
FC Orenburg
0.83
Fakel
0.50
Fakel is 1.67 goals worse than Zenit in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Krasnodar
0.67
Zenit
0.67
Spartak Moscow
0.83
CSKA Moscow
1.00
Baltika
1.00
Fakel
1.17
Dynamo
1.17
FC Orenburg
1.17
Akhmat
1.33
Lokomotiv
1.33
Rubin
1.33
Krylia Sovetov
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
FC Rostov
1.67
Akron
2.50
Rodina Moskva
2.83
Fakel is 0.50 goals worse than Zenit in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dynamo
63%
Spartak Moscow
62%
Zenit
60%
CSKA Moscow
57%
FC Krasnodar
57%
Akron
54%
Lokomotiv
51%
FC Rostov
49%
Fakel
48%
Akhmat
47%
Rubin
47%
Krylia Sovetov
46%
Rodina Moskva
44%
Dinamo Makhachkala
40%
FC Orenburg
39%
Baltika
36%
Fakel is 11.8 percentage points worse than Zenit in terms of average possession (48% vs 60%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fakel
For 6.0 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 13.4 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Zenit
For 5.7 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 15.3 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fakel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.5
9.8
3.0
3.0
3.1
28.0
30.0
24.5
vs Stronger (7)
10.7
12.0
9.3
4.9
4.5
5.3
27.5
31.7
23.3
vs Similar (43)
9.9
9.6
10.5
2.7
2.7
2.8
28.6
28.8
28.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
69%
62%
80%
46%
41%
52%
91%
100%
75%
% under line
31%
38%
20%
54%
59%
48%
9%
0%
25%
This opponent (Zenit) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zenit
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.5
10.1
4.0
3.8
4.3
26.9
26.3
27.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
9.0
6.0
11.0
5.8
3.7
8.0
29.4
31.5
28.0
vs Weaker (44)
9.9
9.9
9.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
26.5
25.6
27.4
% over line
51%
44%
58%
52%
52%
52%
84%
72%
95%
% under line
49%
56%
42%
48%
48%
48%
16%
28%
5%
This opponent (Fakel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rodina Moskva
10.8
CSKA Moscow
10.2
FC Orenburg
10.1
Dynamo
9.9
Zenit
9.7
Krylia Sovetov
9.5
Akhmat
9.4
Fakel
9.2
Spartak Moscow
9.1
Akron
9.1
Dinamo Makhachkala
9.0
Lokomotiv
9.0
FC Krasnodar
8.5
Rubin
8.5
FC Rostov
8.3
Baltika
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spartak Moscow
5.3
Baltika
4.9
FC Krasnodar
4.9
FC Rostov
4.8
Krylia Sovetov
4.6
Lokomotiv
4.6
Rubin
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.6
CSKA Moscow
4.5
Dynamo
4.4
Akhmat
4.4
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.3
Fakel
4.1
Zenit
4.1
Akron
4.0
Rodina Moskva
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Baltika
30.1
Spartak Moscow
30.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
29.0
FC Rostov
28.8
Akhmat
28.7
Rubin
28.6
FC Orenburg
28.6
FC Krasnodar
28.5
Fakel
28.0
Akron
27.5
Lokomotiv
27.5
Dynamo
27.4
Zenit
27.3
CSKA Moscow
26.7
Rodina Moskva
26.6
Krylia Sovetov
26.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.3%
@ 1.95-0.4%
Under 9.5
52.7%
@ 1.77+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.96
Superbet
1.90
Under
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
64.3%
@ 1.60+7.0%
Under 3.5
35.7%
@ 2.15-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.60
Under
Superbet
2.15
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
90.2%
Under 21.5
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fakel or Draw✗ Miss
39.9%
Avg Implied 39.7% · @ 2.38
Edge
+0.2%
8%
32%
60%
covers Fakel + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.43
1xBet
2.42
SBO
2.40
Superbet
2.27
Fakel or Zenit✓ Hit
68.3%
Avg Implied 75.8% · @ 1.25
Edge
-7.5%
8%
32%
60%
covers Fakel + Zenit
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.23
SBO
1.19
Draw or Zenit✓ Hit
91.7%
Avg Implied 84.4% · @ 1.12
Edge
+7.3%
8%
32%
60%
covers Draw + Zenit
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
SBO
1.07
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fakel over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
26.5%
@ 1.79-25.9%
Under
73.5%
@ 1.98+25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.87
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.79
Superbet
1.71
Under
Superbet
2.07
Pinnacle
1.99
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Fakel over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 4.87-15.4%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.16+15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.45
1xBet
4.70
Superbet
4.45
Under
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
Fakel over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
0.4%
@ 14.00-6.4%
Under
99.6%
@ 1.02+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Under
Superbet
1.02
Fakel over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.0%
@ 45.00-100.0%
Under
100.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Zenit over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.3%
@ 1.16-9.6%
Under
28.7%
@ 4.90+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Under
Superbet
4.90
1xBet
4.90
Zenit over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.4%
@ 1.84-16.1%
Under
64.6%
@ 1.96+16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Superbet
1.76
Under
Superbet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
Zenit over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 3.63-12.8%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.26+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.84
1xBet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.62
Superbet
3.35
Under
Superbet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Zenit over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 8.07-7.7%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.05+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.70
Marathonbet
8.40
Superbet
7.10
Under
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fakel, so a minus line means Fakel give that many goals of a start and Zenit receive them. At -1, Fakel must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fakel win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fakel)Actual: Zenit
Fakel -2
0.1%
@ 36.00-2.5%
Draw -2
1.1%
@ 15.00-5.1%
Zenit +2
98.7%
@ 1.02+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
36.00
Draw
Superbet
15.00
Away
Superbet
1.02
Handicap -1 (Fakel)Actual: Zenit
Fakel -1
1.3%
@ 7.60-9.1%
Draw -1
7.0%
@ 4.00-12.7%
Zenit +1
91.7%
@ 1.13+21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
7.60
Draw
Marathonbet
4.00
Away
Marathonbet
1.13
Handicap +1 (Fakel)Actual: Draw
Fakel +1
39.9%
@ 2.37+1.6%
Draw +1
30.9%
@ 3.35+3.8%
Zenit -1
29.2%
@ 2.62-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.43
Superbet
2.30
Draw
Superbet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Away
Marathonbet
2.68
Superbet
2.57
Handicap +2 (Fakel)Actual: Fakel
Fakel +2
70.8%
@ 1.44+7.9%
Draw +2
18.6%
@ 4.58-1.1%
Zenit -2
10.5%
@ 5.22-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.42
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Superbet
4.40
Away
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
5.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fakel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.41
0.35
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.48
0.44
0.38
0.73
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Zenit) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zenit
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.20
0.81
0.12
0.71
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.81
0.15
0.85
0.15
0.77
0.15
Clean sheet %
83% (+56pp vs league)
This opponent (Fakel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
68.1%
@ 1.43+2.3%
Under 0.5
31.9%
@ 2.75-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.38
Under
Superbet
2.90
Pinnacle
2.80
1xBet
2.66
Marathonbet
2.66
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.3%
@ 3.09+1.8%
Under 1.5
67.7%
@ 1.35-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.19
1xBet
3.18
Marathonbet
3.18
Superbet
2.80
Under
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.3%
@ 8.00-1.3%
Under 2.5
89.7%
@ 1.05+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.60
Superbet
6.80
Under
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fakel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
28.1%
@ 3.29-0.3%
Under
71.9%
@ 1.30+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.61
Marathonbet
3.30
1xBet
3.20
Superbet
3.05
Under
Superbet
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Fakel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.0%
@ 12.00-2.9%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.02+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Under
Superbet
1.02
Fakel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 55.00-99.2%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
55.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Zenit over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
56.0%
@ 1.74+2.2%
Under
44.0%
@ 2.02-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Superbet
1.68
Under
Pinnacle
2.09
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.96
Zenit over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
18.5%
@ 4.72-1.1%
Under
81.5%
@ 1.15+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.10
1xBet
4.80
Superbet
4.25
Under
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Zenit over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 12.00-3.8%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.02+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Under
Superbet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fakel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
0.82
0.41
0.77
0.31
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.30
0.88
0.38
0.73
0.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Zenit) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zenit
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
0.69
0.44
0.86
0.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.25
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.85
0.35
0.77
0.46
0.92
0.23
Clean sheet %
80% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Fakel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.7%
@ 1.26+2.7%
Under 0.5
23.3%
@ 3.58-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Under
Superbet
3.65
1xBet
3.54
Marathonbet
3.54
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.3%
@ 2.30+3.2%
Under 1.5
55.7%
@ 1.60-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Superbet
2.20
Under
Superbet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.8%
@ 5.22-1.1%
Under 2.5
83.2%
@ 1.13+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.45
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
4.75
Under
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fakel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
31.8%
@ 2.62-3.7%
Under
68.2%
@ 1.44+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.69
1xBet
2.65
Superbet
2.52
Under
Superbet
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
Fakel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.1%
@ 10.07-2.2%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.02+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
12.00
1xBet
9.60
Superbet
8.60
Under
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Fakel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 37.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
37.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Zenit over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
66.0%
@ 1.51+4.8%
Under
34.0%
@ 2.39-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.53
Superbet
1.50
Under
Superbet
2.42
1xBet
2.36
Zenit over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
30.8%
@ 3.47+4.2%
Under
69.2%
@ 1.26-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Superbet
3.35
Under
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Zenit over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.1%
@ 9.15-1.9%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.02+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.80
Superbet
8.50
Under
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
99.6%
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
99.5%
1.01
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
98.7%
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
97.9%
1.06
Pinnacle
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
+10.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.05
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
-
-
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
96.1%
1.16
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-
+15.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.0%
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
95.0%
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
92.9%
1.02
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
92.7%
1.24
Superbet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
-
+17.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.9%
1.02
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
91.7%
1.12
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
SBO
1.07
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.05
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.9%
1.26
Superbet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
-
+12.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.2%
1.13
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
81.5%
1.15
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.7%
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.7%
1.26
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Zenit clean sheet
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 0.5 HT goals
71.9%
1.30
Superbet
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.3%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
-
-
-
-9.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
70.8%
1.44
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.42
-
-
-
+7.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fakel
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Maksim Turishchev25%
Alexey Sutormin20%
Vyacheslav Yakimov17%
Darko Todorović0%
Belajdi Pusi0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Nikolay Giorgobiani0%
Butta Magomedov0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Albert Gabaraev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Axel Gnapi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Darko Todorović33%
Alexey Sutormin20%
Vyacheslav Yakimov17%
Nikolay Giorgobiani17%
Butta Magomedov17%
Albert Gabaraev17%
Axel Gnapi17%
Belajdi Pusi0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Maksim Turishchev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Belajdi Pusi20%
Nikolay Giorgobiani17%
Darko Todorović0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Vyacheslav Yakimov0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Alexey Sutormin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Butta Magomedov0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Maksim Turishchev0%
Albert Gabaraev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Axel Gnapi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vyacheslav Yakimov17%
Darko Todorović0%
Belajdi Pusi0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Alexey Sutormin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Nikolay Giorgobiani0%
Butta Magomedov0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Maksim Turishchev0%
Albert Gabaraev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Axel Gnapi0%
Zenit
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Maksim Glushenkov60%
Aleksandr Sobolev50%
Jhon Jhon20%
Gustavo Mantuan17%
Felipe Augusto17%
Igor Diveev0%
Wílmar Barrios0%
Wendel0%
Denis Adamov0%
Nino0%
Kevin Andrade0%
Douglas Santos0%
Nuraly Alip0%
Luiz Henrique0%
Román Vega0%
Pedro0%
Daniil Kondakov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Wendel60%
Maksim Glushenkov40%
Román Vega33%
Wílmar Barrios17%
Kevin Andrade17%
Igor Diveev0%
Denis Adamov0%
Nino0%
Douglas Santos0%
Aleksandr Sobolev0%
Nuraly Alip0%
Luiz Henrique0%
Gustavo Mantuan0%
Jhon Jhon0%
Felipe Augusto0%
Pedro0%
Daniil Kondakov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maksim Glushenkov40%
Pedro40%
Wendel20%
Jhon Jhon20%
Aleksandr Sobolev17%
Igor Diveev0%
Wílmar Barrios0%
Denis Adamov0%
Nino0%
Kevin Andrade0%
Douglas Santos0%
Nuraly Alip0%
Luiz Henrique0%
Gustavo Mantuan0%
Román Vega0%
Felipe Augusto0%
Daniil Kondakov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Maksim Glushenkov60%
Igor Diveev17%
Kevin Andrade17%
Aleksandr Sobolev17%
Román Vega17%
Felipe Augusto17%
Wílmar Barrios0%
Wendel0%
Denis Adamov0%
Nino0%
Douglas Santos0%
Nuraly Alip0%
Luiz Henrique0%
Gustavo Mantuan0%
Jhon Jhon0%
Pedro0%
Daniil Kondakov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
Fakel's squad is €168m less valuable than Zenit's (€14m vs €182m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
FAK (10)
€5m
Fakel's attack is €95m less valuable than Zenit's (€5m vs €100m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
FAK (4)
€2m
Fakel's midfield is €29m less valuable than Zenit's (€2m vs €31m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
AKH (10)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
Fakel's defence is €43m less valuable than Zenit's (€7m vs €50m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
Akhmat
Krylia Sovetov
FC Rostov
Rodina Moskva
Lokomotiv
Akron