Falkirk are tipped to lift the trophy, with a 61% chance of victory, 23% for a draw and 15% for Hearts to win. The model favours a 2-0 win for the home side, the most likely scoreline, with a 11.2% probability. The expected total of 2.8 goals suggests a moderate-scoring affair, but the most probable total is two goals, a 25% chance. Falkirk, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 2.56 goals scored and 0.78 conceded, while Hearts, on the road, average 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Under 6.5 (97.5%), Home +2 handicap (94.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.1%), Under 5.5 (93.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (86.7%) and Home over 0.5 goals (85.7%). The model’s selection set reflects a strong home advantage, with Falkirk’s recent form still recovering from a defeat to Celtic, whereas Hearts remain unbeaten in their last five.
Results analysis
The latest League Cup clash saw Falkirk extend their recent run, while Hearts were still unbeaten in their last five. The model predicted a home win with a 61% probability, and the result confirmed that call. The final score was 2-0, a home victory that matched the model’s expectation. Every suggested pick also came through: Under 7.5 hit at 99.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.8%, Under 6.5 at 97.5%, Home +2 handicap at 94.8%, Away under 2.5 goals at 94.1%, Under 5.5 at 93.3%, Home under 3.5 goals at 86.7%, and Home over 0.5 goals at 85.7%. All selections were settled and the model’s predictions proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Falkirk win✓ Hit
61.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian win✗ Miss
15.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Falkirk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.73
0.77
2.80
0.80
2.67
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
2.67
0.61
2.56
0.78
2.78
0.44
vs Weaker (12)
2.83
1.00
3.17
0.83
2.50
1.17
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.13
1.80
0.80
1.27
1.47
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.71
1.25
1.00
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (6)
1.50
0.67
1.67
0.33
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.76
1.06
2.12
0.88
1.44
1.22
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.3%
Under 1.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.3%
Under 3.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 ✓
11.2%
1-1
11.2%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-0
7.3%
0-0
7.0%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
4.5%
Falkirk goals ↓
Heart Of Midlothian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
4.2%
2.3%
0.7%
0.1%
1
11%
11%
4.5%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
7.3%
6.4%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.5%
3.1%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Falkirk goals (down), columns = Heart Of Midlothian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Aberdeen
2.57
Celtic
2.50
Dundee
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Ross County
2.40
Livingston
2.25
Ayr Utd
2.25
Dundee Utd
2.00
Spartans
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Queen's Park
1.80
Hibernian
1.80
Airdrie United
1.80
ST Johnstone
1.80
Alloa Athletic
1.75
East Fife
1.75
Montrose
1.75
Partick
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.75
Raith Rovers
1.75
Motherwell
1.71
Peterhead
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Morton
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Inverness CT
1.00
Cove Rangers
1.00
Kelty Hearts
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Kilmarnock
1.00
Arbroath
1.00
Dunfermline
0.75
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Stirling
0.50
Elgin
0.25
Stranraer
0.25
Dumbarton
0.25
East Kilbride
0.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.25
Buckie Thistle
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
ST Mirren
0.00
Brechin
0.00
Edinburgh City
0.00
Falkirk is 2.00 points better than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
4.25
Dundee
4.00
Queen's Park
3.20
Airdrie United
3.20
Hibernian
3.00
Aberdeen
2.86
Partick
2.75
Falkirk
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Clyde
2.25
Ayr Utd
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.20
Dundee Utd
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Ross County
2.00
Alloa Athletic
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.75
Raith Rovers
1.75
Montrose
1.50
Motherwell
1.43
Spartans
1.33
Buckie Thistle
1.25
Peterhead
1.25
Livingston
1.25
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Queen of the South
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Stranraer
1.00
Dunfermline
1.00
Dumbarton
1.00
Elgin
0.75
Inverness CT
0.75
Cove Rangers
0.75
Forfar
0.75
Morton
0.75
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.75
Kelty Hearts
0.50
Stirling
0.50
East Kilbride
0.50
Brechin
0.50
Arbroath
0.25
Edinburgh City
0.25
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
Kilmarnock
0.00
ST Mirren
0.00
Falkirk is 2.50 goals better than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 0.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kilmarnock
0.00
Livingston
0.25
Motherwell
0.71
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Ross County
0.80
Hibernian
1.00
Aberdeen
1.00
Dundee
1.00
Rangers
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Raith Rovers
1.00
ST Mirren
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.17
Spartans
1.17
Falkirk
1.17
Queen's Park
1.20
Alloa Athletic
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
East Fife
1.25
Montrose
1.25
Partick
1.25
Annan Athletic
1.25
Ayr Utd
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
ST Johnstone
1.40
Celtic
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Morton
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Inverness CT
1.75
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Stirling
2.00
Heart Of Midlothian
2.00
Airdrie United
2.20
Cove Rangers
2.25
Stranraer
2.50
Brechin
2.50
Peterhead
2.75
Stenhousemuir
2.75
Dumbarton
3.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
3.25
Elgin
3.50
East Kilbride
4.00
Edinburgh City
4.00
Buckie Thistle
4.25
Falkirk is 0.83 goals better than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Falkirk
For 9.5 · Against 4.8 · Total 14.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 9.3 · Total 19.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
For 5.6 · Against 6.9 · Total 12.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.4 · Against 11.0 · Total 19.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Falkirk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
11.5
10.8
3.4
2.8
4.1
21.5
19.7
23.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
11.0
12.1
10.0
3.0
2.6
3.4
20.7
19.0
22.4
vs Weaker (18)
11.4
10.6
12.1
4.2
3.0
5.6
22.9
20.9
25.0
% over line
71%
67%
76%
50%
32%
68%
43%
29%
57%
% under line
29%
33%
24%
50%
68%
32%
57%
71%
43%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.7
11.6
11.8
3.7
3.7
3.6
22.7
23.1
22.3
vs Stronger (13)
11.8
9.8
14.2
3.2
3.4
3.0
23.2
24.0
22.2
vs Similar (13)
12.5
13.6
10.8
3.8
3.1
5.2
24.3
22.9
26.8
vs Weaker (24)
11.2
11.3
11.2
3.8
4.4
3.4
21.7
22.7
21.0
% over line
73%
73%
73%
56%
58%
54%
59%
68%
50%
% under line
27%
27%
27%
44%
42%
46%
41%
32%
50%
This opponent (Falkirk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
12.0
Rangers
11.4
Heart Of Midlothian
11.4
Falkirk
11.2
Kelty Hearts
11.2
Dundee Utd
11.1
Ross County
11.1
Dundee
11.0
Kilmarnock
11.0
ST Mirren
10.8
Motherwell
10.8
Morton
10.7
Dumbarton
10.7
Dunfermline
10.7
Arbroath
10.6
Aberdeen
10.5
Stenhousemuir
10.4
Hibernian
10.4
Inverness CT
10.2
Cove Rangers
10.2
ST Johnstone
10.1
Stirling
10.1
Montrose
10.1
Stranraer
10.1
Forfar
10.0
Brechin
10.0
Annan Athletic
10.0
Edinburgh City
10.0
Airdrie United
10.0
Partick
9.9
Clyde
9.7
Livingston
9.7
East Fife
9.7
Spartans
9.3
Peterhead
8.9
Elgin
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Peterhead
4.9
Annan Athletic
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.5
Morton
4.3
Aberdeen
4.2
Kilmarnock
4.1
Rangers
4.1
Dumbarton
4.1
Dundee
4.1
Stenhousemuir
4.1
Montrose
4.0
Hibernian
4.0
ST Johnstone
4.0
Dundee Utd
3.9
Falkirk
3.9
Motherwell
3.9
Stirling
3.8
East Fife
3.7
Ross County
3.7
Dunfermline
3.6
Celtic
3.6
Edinburgh City
3.6
Partick
3.5
Brechin
3.5
Stranraer
3.5
Elgin
3.5
Livingston
3.5
Kelty Hearts
3.5
Forfar
3.4
Arbroath
3.4
Clyde
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Spartans
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.3
ST Mirren
3.3
Inverness CT
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
25.0
Aberdeen
24.2
Forfar
24.0
Livingston
23.7
Elgin
23.7
Heart Of Midlothian
22.8
Kilmarnock
22.5
Morton
22.4
ST Johnstone
22.4
Motherwell
22.0
Stenhousemuir
22.0
Ross County
22.0
Rangers
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.8
ST Mirren
21.6
Kelty Hearts
21.5
Falkirk
21.5
Hibernian
21.4
East Fife
21.3
Montrose
21.0
Spartans
20.9
Annan Athletic
20.9
Arbroath
20.8
Edinburgh City
20.5
Clyde
20.5
Stirling
20.5
Dumbarton
20.4
Brechin
20.4
Dundee
20.0
Partick
19.9
Stranraer
19.8
Celtic
19.7
Inverness CT
19.4
Dunfermline
19.3
Airdrie United
18.7
Cove Rangers
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
70.2%
Under 9.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.9%
Under 3.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
59.6%
Under 21.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Falkirk or Draw✓ Hit
84.7%
Avg Implied -
61%
23%
15%
covers Falkirk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Falkirk or Heart Of Midlothian✓ Hit
76.6%
Avg Implied -
61%
23%
15%
covers Falkirk + Heart Of Midlothian
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Heart Of Midlothian✗ Miss
38.7%
Avg Implied -
61%
23%
15%
covers Draw + Heart Of Midlothian
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Falkirk over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.7%
Under
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
57.9%
Under
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
58.5%
Under
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
22.0%
Under
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Falkirk, so a minus line means Falkirk give that many goals of a start and Heart Of Midlothian receive them. At -1, Falkirk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Falkirk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Falkirk)Actual: Draw
Falkirk -2
18.5%
Draw -2
19.2%
Heart Of Midlothian +2
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Falkirk)Actual: Falkirk
Falkirk -1
37.7%
Draw -1
23.7%
Heart Of Midlothian +1
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Falkirk)Actual: Falkirk
Falkirk +1
84.7%
Draw +1
10.1%
Heart Of Midlothian -1
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Falkirk)Actual: Falkirk
Falkirk +2
94.8%
Draw +2
3.9%
Heart Of Midlothian -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Falkirk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.47
1.47
0.40
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.44
1.11
0.56
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (12)
1.42
0.50
2.00
0.17
0.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.67
0.40
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.86
0.50
0.25
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.17
0.33
0.33
0.67
0.00
vs Weaker (17)
0.59
0.59
0.88
0.50
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Falkirk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Falkirk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.30
1.33
0.40
1.73
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.61
0.17
1.44
0.22
1.78
0.11
vs Weaker (12)
1.42
0.50
1.17
0.67
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.13
0.40
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.75
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.00
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
0.47
1.25
0.38
1.11
0.56
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Falkirk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 9.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Falkirk · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Ethan Ross0%
Liam Henderson0%
Leon McCann0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Aodhan Doherty0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Leon McCann33%
Aodhan Doherty33%
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Ethan Ross0%
Liam Henderson0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Ethan Ross0%
Liam Henderson0%
Leon McCann0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Aodhan Doherty0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ethan Ross33%
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Liam Henderson0%
Leon McCann0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Aodhan Doherty0%
Heart Of Midlothian
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Elton Kabangu29%
James Wilson19%
Yutaro Oda17%
Blair Spittal15%
Musa Drammeh14%
Alan Forrest14%
Lawrence Shankland13%
Michael Steinwender11%
Kenneth Vargas11%
Stephen Kingsley9%
Jamie McCart9%
Frankie Kent9%
Jorge Grant9%
Calem Nieuwenhof8%
Craig Halkett6%
James Penrice5%
Daniel Oyegoke4%
Yan Dhanda3%
Craig Gordon0%
Cameron Devlin0%
Kye Rowles0%
Barrie McKay0%
Beni Baningime0%
Liam Boyce0%
Zander Clark0%
Ryan Fulton0%
Harry Milne0%
Sander Erik Kartum0%
Lewis Neilson0%
Malachi Boateng0%
Gerald Taylor0%
Adam Forrester0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Cameron Devlin31%
James Penrice31%
Adam Forrester27%
Gerald Taylor25%
Craig Halkett22%
Lawrence Shankland21%
Stephen Kingsley18%
Kye Rowles16%
Jorge Grant14%
Elton Kabangu14%
Frankie Kent13%
Daniel Oyegoke12%
Yan Dhanda10%
Beni Baningime10%
Sander Erik Kartum8%
Kenneth Vargas8%
Malachi Boateng8%
Craig Gordon5%
James Wilson4%
Alan Forrest3%
Michael Steinwender0%
Barrie McKay0%
Liam Boyce0%
Yutaro Oda0%
Zander Clark0%
Ryan Fulton0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Harry Milne0%
Calem Nieuwenhof0%
Lewis Neilson0%
Musa Drammeh0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryan Fulton33%
Lawrence Shankland21%
Liam Boyce17%
James Penrice13%
Kenneth Vargas11%
Beni Baningime10%
Malachi Boateng8%
James Wilson7%
Blair Spittal7%
Elton Kabangu7%
Musa Drammeh5%
Yan Dhanda3%
Adam Forrester3%
Cameron Devlin3%
Jorge Grant3%
Alan Forrest3%
Craig Gordon0%
Kye Rowles0%
Michael Steinwender0%
Frankie Kent0%
Barrie McKay0%
Stephen Kingsley0%
Yutaro Oda0%
Zander Clark0%
Craig Halkett0%
Jamie McCart0%
Harry Milne0%
Sander Erik Kartum0%
Daniel Oyegoke0%
Calem Nieuwenhof0%
Lewis Neilson0%
Gerald Taylor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lawrence Shankland34%
Elton Kabangu29%
Musa Drammeh18%
Liam Boyce8%
James Wilson7%
Craig Halkett6%
Blair Spittal5%
Kye Rowles4%
Cameron Devlin3%
Jorge Grant3%
Kenneth Vargas3%
Alan Forrest3%
Craig Gordon0%
Michael Steinwender0%
Frankie Kent0%
Yan Dhanda0%
Barrie McKay0%
Stephen Kingsley0%
Beni Baningime0%
Yutaro Oda0%
Zander Clark0%
Ryan Fulton0%
Jamie McCart0%
James Penrice0%
Harry Milne0%
Sander Erik Kartum0%
Daniel Oyegoke0%
Calem Nieuwenhof0%
Lewis Neilson0%
Malachi Boateng0%
Gerald Taylor0%
Adam Forrester0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Falkirk's squad is €16m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€6m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Falkirk's attack is €11m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€2m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Falkirk's midfield is €3m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€1m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Falkirk's defence is €2m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€3m vs €6m).
Scotland: Championship 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
Heart Of Midlothian plays in Scotland - Premiership
Scotland: Premiership 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Livingston
Partick
Morton
Ayr Utd
Airdrie United
Raith Rovers
Dunfermline
Hamilton Academical
Queens Park
Queen's Park
Cove Rangers
Queen of the South
Stenhousemuir
Celtic
Rangers
Hibernian
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
Motherwell
Kilmarnock
Dundee
Ross County
ST Johnstone