Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor face a finely balanced clash, with the model favouring a home win. The odds sit at 40% for a Fatih Karagümrük victory, 31% for a draw and 29% for a Kayserispor triumph. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 14.5% chance. Fatih Karagümrük’s home form shows they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.78 conceded against similar opposition, while Kayserispor’s away record is 0.82 scored and 1.27 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Under 5.5 (98.2%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.6%) and Home under 3.5 goals (96.3%). Fatih Karagümrük’s recent run of five matches, with a 2-game winning streak, and Kayserispor’s four-game winning streak, give both sides momentum, but the slight edge remains with the home side.
Results analysis
The match ended 1-1, a draw that surprised everyone, especially after Fatih Karagümrük’s recent form of DDWWL and Kayserispor’s DLWWW, both coming off a 1-1 tie. The model had picked a Home win with a 41% probability, but that call was wrong. Every suggested selection was a hit: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Under 5.5 (98.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.5%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.6%) and Home under 3.5 goals (96.4%). The game’s low total of two goals matched the model’s most likely score of 1-1, confirming the under-goals predictions.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük win✗ Miss
41.0%
Avg Implied 35.9% · @ 2.54
Edge
+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.80
Pinnacle
2.61
Betano
2.57
BetVictor
2.55
Bet365
2.55
Draw✓ Hit
30.7%
Avg Implied 28.3% · @ 3.22
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.54
Dafabet
3.30
William Hil
3.30
Marathonbet
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Kayserispor win✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied 35.8% · @ 2.55
Edge
-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.67
Dafabet
2.65
Betano
2.62
Pinnacle
2.61
Bet365
2.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.43
1.14
1.14
1.06
1.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.75
0.80
1.80
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (22)
1.23
1.32
1.33
0.78
1.15
1.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kayserispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kayserispor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.40
1.07
1.40
0.67
1.40
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
2.62
0.33
3.33
0.60
2.20
vs Similar (22)
1.00
0.95
1.25
0.92
0.70
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Fatih Karagümrük) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.1%
@ 1.28-3.9%
Under 1.5
31.9%
@ 3.30+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.53
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.3%
@ 1.92-8.1%
Under 2.5
59.7%
@ 1.81+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.95
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.86
Bet365
1.85
SBO
1.83
Betano
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.0%
@ 3.26-8.4%
Under 3.5
80.0%
@ 1.29+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.39
10Bet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Under
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.4%
@ 1.71-6.5%
No
52.6%
@ 2.00+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
No
Betfair
2.05
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.01
BetVictor
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.4%@ 5.75+6.8%
1-0
11.6%@ 7.84+6.0%
0-0
11.4%@ 9.33+6.7%
0-1
8.9%@ 8.01+3.5%
2-1
8.4%@ 8.71+3.3%
2-0
8.2%@ 11.75+4.5%
1-2
6.7%@ 8.83+1.7%
0-2
5.2%@ 12.03+1.6%
Fatih Karagümrük goals ↓
Kayserispor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.9%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
1
12%
14%
6.7%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.2%
8.4%
4.3%
1.4%
0.4%
3
3.5%
3.6%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fatih Karagümrük goals (down), columns = Kayserispor goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Batman Petrolspor
2.60
Bursaspor
2.40
Sarıyer
2.00
Kayserispor
2.00
Iğdır FK
1.80
Mardin 1969
1.80
Keçiörengücü
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.60
Fatih Karagümrük
1.60
Muğlaspor
1.60
Bandırmaspor
1.20
Antalyaspor
1.20
Pendikspor
1.00
Vanspor FK
0.80
Esenler Erokspor
0.80
Bodrum FK
0.80
Sivasspor
0.60
Ümraniyespor
0.60
İstanbulspor
0.40
Boluspor
0.00
Fatih Karagümrük is 0.40 points worse than Kayserispor in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Keçiörengücü
2.40
Batman Petrolspor
2.00
Bursaspor
2.00
Manisa F.K.
2.00
Antalyaspor
1.60
Sarıyer
1.60
Mardin 1969
1.60
Iğdır FK
1.40
Pendikspor
1.40
Kayserispor
1.40
Fatih Karagümrük
1.20
Vanspor FK
1.00
Bandırmaspor
1.00
Sivasspor
1.00
İstanbulspor
1.00
Ümraniyespor
0.80
Muğlaspor
0.60
Esenler Erokspor
0.40
Bodrum FK
0.40
Boluspor
0.20
Fatih Karagümrük is 0.20 goals worse than Kayserispor in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Muğlaspor
0.40
Bandırmaspor
0.60
Esenler Erokspor
0.60
Mardin 1969
0.60
Bursaspor
0.60
Kayserispor
0.60
Sarıyer
0.80
Batman Petrolspor
0.80
Iğdır FK
0.80
Bodrum FK
0.80
Ümraniyespor
1.20
Fatih Karagümrük
1.20
Keçiörengücü
1.60
Sivasspor
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.60
Antalyaspor
2.00
Vanspor FK
2.20
Boluspor
2.20
Pendikspor
2.20
İstanbulspor
2.60
Fatih Karagümrük is 0.60 goals worse than Kayserispor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Esenler Erokspor
61%
Bandırmaspor
60%
Bursaspor
59%
Manisa F.K.
55%
Antalyaspor
55%
Kayserispor
53%
Batman Petrolspor
52%
Ümraniyespor
52%
Pendikspor
51%
Sarıyer
50%
Iğdır FK
49%
Mardin 1969
49%
Sivasspor
48%
Bodrum FK
46%
Keçiörengücü
45%
Fatih Karagümrük
45%
İstanbulspor
44%
Muğlaspor
43%
Vanspor FK
42%
Boluspor
41%
Fatih Karagümrük is 8.6 percentage points worse than Kayserispor in terms of average possession (45% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük
For 3.1 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 12.6 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kayserispor
For 5.5 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 12.3 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fatih Karagümrük
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.0
9.0
3.7
3.8
3.6
28.4
29.3
27.5
vs Stronger (13)
9.5
9.3
9.7
3.5
2.9
4.2
25.4
26.0
24.8
vs Similar (37)
8.8
8.8
8.7
3.8
4.2
3.4
29.5
30.5
28.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
43%
41%
58%
64%
52%
93%
91%
95%
% under line
58%
57%
59%
42%
36%
48%
7%
9%
5%
This opponent (Kayserispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kayserispor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.0
10.1
4.2
4.3
4.2
24.6
25.0
24.3
vs Stronger (17)
11.1
11.0
11.1
4.2
4.6
4.0
23.6
24.3
23.1
vs Similar (33)
9.5
9.6
9.4
4.2
4.2
4.3
25.2
25.2
25.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
65%
67%
62%
66%
68%
64%
73%
75%
71%
% under line
35%
33%
38%
34%
32%
36%
27%
25%
29%
This opponent (Fatih Karagümrük) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kayserispor
10.0
Sivasspor
9.5
Bodrum FK
9.1
Antalyaspor
9.1
Bursaspor
9.1
Bandırmaspor
9.1
Iğdır FK
9.0
Ümraniyespor
8.9
Esenler Erokspor
8.9
Fatih Karagümrük
8.9
Mardin 1969
8.8
Manisa F.K.
8.5
Pendikspor
8.4
İstanbulspor
8.4
Boluspor
8.3
Vanspor FK
8.3
Keçiörengücü
8.2
Batman Petrolspor
8.0
Sarıyer
7.8
Muğlaspor
6.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Muğlaspor
6.8
Batman Petrolspor
6.5
Antalyaspor
5.3
Vanspor FK
5.1
Pendikspor
5.1
Sarıyer
5.1
Boluspor
5.1
Manisa F.K.
5.0
Esenler Erokspor
5.0
Sivasspor
5.0
Iğdır FK
4.8
Bandırmaspor
4.7
İstanbulspor
4.6
Keçiörengücü
4.6
Kayserispor
4.5
Bursaspor
4.4
Fatih Karagümrük
4.3
Ümraniyespor
4.3
Bodrum FK
4.2
Mardin 1969
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Muğlaspor
30.8
Bursaspor
29.1
Fatih Karagümrük
28.8
Vanspor FK
27.8
Antalyaspor
27.4
Pendikspor
26.5
Batman Petrolspor
25.8
Boluspor
25.6
Kayserispor
24.9
Bandırmaspor
24.2
Bodrum FK
24.1
Keçiörengücü
23.7
Iğdır FK
23.6
Manisa F.K.
23.6
Sarıyer
23.4
Sivasspor
23.4
İstanbulspor
23.3
Ümraniyespor
23.2
Mardin 1969
23.0
Esenler Erokspor
22.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
38.0%
@ 2.12-5.7%
Under 9.5
62.0%
@ 1.64+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.16
Marathonbet
2.14
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.11
Superbet
2.05
Under
Superbet
1.70
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.57
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.6%
Under 3.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
69.5%
Under 21.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fatih Karagümrük or Draw✓ Hit
76.9%
Avg Implied 64.6% · @ 1.42
Edge
+12.3%
41%
31%
28%
covers Fatih Karagümrük + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Fatih Karagümrük or Kayserispor✗ Miss
67.7%
Avg Implied 71.8% · @ 1.27
Edge
-4.1%
41%
31%
28%
covers Fatih Karagümrük + Kayserispor
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or Kayserispor✓ Hit
55.4%
Avg Implied 63.6% · @ 1.44
Edge
-8.2%
41%
31%
28%
covers Draw + Kayserispor
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Betfair
1.44
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.5%
@ 1.28-1.7%
Under
29.5%
@ 3.33+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.44
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.4%
@ 2.39-4.1%
Under
65.5%
@ 1.50+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.53
BetVictor
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Betano
2.40
Marathonbet
2.40
Under
Betfair
1.53
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Superbet
1.52
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.5%
@ 5.54-4.2%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.11+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
1xBet
5.65
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 13.38-3.6%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.02+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Kayserispor over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
55.3%
@ 1.29-16.6%
Under
44.7%
@ 3.28+16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.54
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Kayserispor over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
19.3%
@ 2.42-19.0%
Under
80.7%
@ 1.50+19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.48
Superbet
2.45
Betano
2.42
1xBet
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.52
Betfair
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Kayserispor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 5.65-11.6%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.11+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.60
1xBet
5.60
Superbet
5.55
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Kayserispor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 13.62-6.1%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.02+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fatih Karagümrük, so a minus line means Fatih Karagümrük give that many goals of a start and Kayserispor receive them. At -1, Fatih Karagümrük must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fatih Karagümrük win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fatih Karagümrük)Actual: Kayserispor
Fatih Karagümrük -2
7.0%
@ 10.32-1.5%
Draw -2
13.5%
@ 6.73+0.4%
Kayserispor +2
79.5%
@ 1.12+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
12.00
Marathonbet
6.95
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Fatih Karagümrük)Actual: Kayserispor
Fatih Karagümrük -1
20.5%
@ 5.02+3.1%
Draw -1
24.1%
@ 4.04+2.5%
Kayserispor +1
55.4%
@ 1.43-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.15
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.20
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.40
Away
10Bet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Unibet
1.38
Handicap +1 (Fatih Karagümrük)Actual: Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük +1
76.9%
@ 1.43+16.0%
Draw +1
15.5%
@ 4.03-6.2%
Kayserispor -1
7.6%
@ 4.99-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Unibet
1.36
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.50
Away
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.30
Handicap +2 (Fatih Karagümrük)Actual: Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük +2
92.4%
@ 1.13+14.2%
Draw +2
5.9%
@ 6.68-7.4%
Kayserispor -2
1.8%
@ 10.37-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
4.55
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
12.00
Marathonbet
6.10
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fatih Karagümrük
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.64
0.50
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.75
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.64
0.67
0.33
0.62
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Kayserispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kayserispor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.60
0.40
0.53
0.13
0.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
1.12
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.36
0.41
0.50
0.33
0.20
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Fatih Karagümrük) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
65.7%
@ 1.38-1.2%
Under 0.5
34.3%
@ 2.79+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.01
William Hil
2.88
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.78
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.2%
@ 2.78+3.9%
Under 1.5
62.8%
@ 1.39-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.92
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.85
William Hil
2.80
Marathonbet
2.78
Under
10Bet
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.5%
@ 7.00-1.7%
Under 2.5
88.5%
@ 1.07+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
7.50
William Hil
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.8%
@ 2.07-1.0%
Under
56.2%
@ 1.68+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Under
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.70
Superbet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.9%
@ 6.80-1.7%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.07+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.00
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 11.00-7.0%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Kayserispor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.3%
@ 2.11+3.3%
Under
52.7%
@ 1.65-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Kayserispor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.7%
@ 6.87+3.3%
Under
83.3%
@ 1.07-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.00
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Kayserispor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 11.00-5.9%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fatih Karagümrük
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.50
0.64
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.68
0.67
0.44
0.54
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Kayserispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kayserispor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.87
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.50
0.33
2.00
0.60
1.20
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.55
0.75
0.58
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Fatih Karagümrük) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.9%
@ 1.23+5.7%
Under 0.5
19.1%
@ 3.71-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.68
Marathonbet
3.68
Superbet
3.65
Betano
3.65
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.5%
@ 2.11+4.7%
Under 1.5
51.5%
@ 1.64-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.13
Superbet
2.12
William Hil
2.10
Under
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.65
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.63
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.8%
@ 4.46-1.9%
Under 2.5
81.2%
@ 1.16+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.60
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.55
Superbet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.13
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.1%
@ 1.76-4.5%
Under
51.9%
@ 1.95+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Under
1xBet
1.98
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.89
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.1%
@ 4.65-5.7%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.15+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.00
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 9.25-6.6%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.03+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Kayserispor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.4%
@ 1.77+0.5%
Under
47.6%
@ 1.92-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Kayserispor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.1%
@ 4.77+1.8%
Under
78.9%
@ 1.14-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Kayserispor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 9.50-4.7%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.03+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.5%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.01
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.2%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
+11.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
94.5%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
-
-
+14.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.5%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.1%
1.07
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.5%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.9%
1.15
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.3%
1.07
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
-
-
-3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.7%
1.23
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.2%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.13
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.23
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.20
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
80.7%
1.50
Pinnacle
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.52
Betfair
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
+19.0%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.0%
1.29
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.9%
1.14
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
76.9%
1.42
Betano
1.47
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
+12.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
76.9%
1.43
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Unibet
1.36
-
+16.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
73.5%
1.38
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.32
-
+6.8%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
70.5%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
-1.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fatih Karagümrük
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emre Akbaba25%
D. Biraschi25%
A. Pešić25%
D. Verde25%
Dorukhan Toköz0%
C. Tosun0%
M. Silvestri0%
R. Yalçın0%
Ç. Kurukalıp0%
Muhammed Emin Sarikaya0%
M. Siopis0%
R. Civelek0%
Tiago Cukur0%
Baris Kalayci0%
Traore Ahmed0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dorukhan Toköz33%
D. Biraschi25%
Ç. Kurukalıp25%
M. Siopis25%
Traore Ahmed25%
Emre Akbaba0%
C. Tosun0%
M. Silvestri0%
A. Pešić0%
D. Verde0%
R. Yalçın0%
Muhammed Emin Sarikaya0%
R. Civelek0%
Tiago Cukur0%
Baris Kalayci0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
A. Pešić50%
Tiago Cukur25%
Emre Akbaba0%
Dorukhan Toköz0%
C. Tosun0%
D. Biraschi0%
M. Silvestri0%
D. Verde0%
R. Yalçın0%
Ç. Kurukalıp0%
Muhammed Emin Sarikaya0%
M. Siopis0%
R. Civelek0%
Baris Kalayci0%
Traore Ahmed0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Pešić50%
Emre Akbaba0%
Dorukhan Toköz0%
C. Tosun0%
D. Biraschi0%
M. Silvestri0%
D. Verde0%
R. Yalçın0%
Ç. Kurukalıp0%
Muhammed Emin Sarikaya0%
M. Siopis0%
R. Civelek0%
Tiago Cukur0%
Baris Kalayci0%
Traore Ahmed0%
Kayserispor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
T. Seferi75%
Florent Hasani25%
B. Keser25%
D. Moreno0%
G. Sağlam0%
D. Radu0%
J. Tabidze0%
S. Kurt0%
M. Uçar0%
S. Güler0%
Gökhan Değirmenci0%
F. Özer0%
C. Şen0%
M. Dulca0%
T. Sarıarslan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Tabidze50%
S. Güler50%
T. Sarıarslan33%
G. Sağlam25%
Florent Hasani25%
T. Seferi25%
M. Uçar25%
Gökhan Değirmenci25%
M. Dulca25%
D. Moreno0%
D. Radu0%
S. Kurt0%
B. Keser0%
F. Özer0%
C. Şen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
G. Sağlam25%
J. Tabidze25%
S. Kurt25%
B. Keser25%
D. Moreno0%
Florent Hasani0%
D. Radu0%
T. Seferi0%
M. Uçar0%
S. Güler0%
Gökhan Değirmenci0%
F. Özer0%
C. Şen0%
M. Dulca0%
T. Sarıarslan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Moreno25%
Florent Hasani25%
T. Seferi25%
B. Keser25%
G. Sağlam0%
D. Radu0%
J. Tabidze0%
S. Kurt0%
M. Uçar0%
S. Güler0%
Gökhan Değirmenci0%
F. Özer0%
C. Şen0%
M. Dulca0%
T. Sarıarslan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (27)
€19m
ANT (25)
€16m
BF (31)
€13m
FK (23)
€12m
KAY (23)
€12m
EE (23)
€11m
SIV (26)
€10m
IF (26)
€9m
MF (24)
€9m
BP (25)
€9m
İST (28)
€8m
BAN (29)
€7m
ÜMR (25)
€7m
PEN (26)
€6m
M1 (25)
€6m
VF (21)
€6m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
MUĞ (19)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
BOL (18)
€3m
Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor have a similar squad value (both €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (10)
€10m
BF (10)
€6m
FK (9)
€5m
KAY (9)
€5m
ANT (8)
€5m
EE (8)
€4m
SIV (10)
€4m
BP (10)
€4m
IF (7)
€4m
VF (10)
€3m
İST (10)
€3m
ÜMR (8)
€3m
MUĞ (8)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
SAR (7)
€2m
MF (7)
€2m
BAN (8)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
PEN (10)
€2m
BOL (5)
€1m
Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor have a similar attack value (both €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (5)
€4m
ANT (6)
€4m
EE (6)
€3m
FK (3)
€3m
BF (10)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (5)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
BP (5)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
IF (7)
€2m
BAN (6)
€2m
KAY (4)
€2m
PEN (5)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
MUĞ (7)
€2m
SAR (4)
€1m
VF (2)
€1m
İST (5)
€1m
BOL (5)
€1m
Fatih Karagümrük's midfield is €1m more valuable than Kayserispor's (€3m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ANT (11)
€7m
KAY (10)
€5m
BUR (12)
€4m
BF (11)
€4m
FK (11)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (13)
€4m
IF (12)
€3m
BAN (15)
€3m
PEN (11)
€3m
EE (9)
€3m
BP (10)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
SIV (11)
€3m
VF (9)
€2m
M1 (9)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
ÜMR (10)
€2m
MUĞ (4)
€2m
BOL (8)
€1m
Fatih Karagümrük's defence is €1m less valuable than Kayserispor's (€4m vs €5m).
Turkey: 1. Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: 1. Lig stats & trends →
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Batman Petrolspor
Bursaspor
Sarıyer
Mardin 1969
Iğdır FK
Keçiörengücü
Manisa F.K.
Muğlaspor
Bandırmaspor
Antalyaspor
Pendikspor
Esenler Erokspor
Bodrum FK
Vanspor FK
Ümraniyespor
Sivasspor
İstanbulspor
Boluspor