FC Bacau are the clear favourites to win this Liga II encounter, with the model assigning a 50 % chance to a home victory, 27 % to a draw and 23 % to a Cetatea Suceava win. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a moderate-scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.8 % probability. Bacau’s home form shows they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.75 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Cetatea Suceava, playing away, averages 2.0 goals scored and a clean sheet against comparable sides. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3 %), Under 6.5 (97.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7 %), Under 5.5 (94.2 %), Home under 3.5 goals (91.4 %), Home +2 handicap (90.9 %), Away under 2.5 goals (90.7 %) and Under 4.5 (86.0 %). Bacau are coming off a draw, while Cetatea Suceava return after a defeat, setting the stage for a tight contest that is likely to finish 1-1.
FC Bacau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.20 | 1.67 | 0.93 | 1.33 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.45 | 1.09 | 1.67 | 0.75 | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 2.00 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Cetatea Suceava| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (2) | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Cetatea Suceava goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.1% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 11% | 13% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.4% | 9.4% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
FC Bacau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.63 | 0.93 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.77 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.17 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Cetatea Suceava| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (2) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
FC Bacau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.57 | 0.73 | 0.60 | 0.73 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.68 | 0.55 | 0.67 | 0.58 | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Cetatea Suceava| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (2) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 99.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 98.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 98.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 95.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 92.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 92.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 91.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 88.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 79.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 78.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Draw | 76.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +1 handicap | 76.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 75.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 74.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 goals | 73.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 73.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 72.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
FC Bacau| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 31/08/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 19/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 16/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 12/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-0 |
Cetatea Suceava| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 12/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 2.6 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | - |
| 2 | Slatina | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 2.4 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 | Concordia | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 4 | CSM Reşiţa | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Chindia Targoviste | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Popești-Leordeni | 5 | 9 | 40% | 1.8 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 3.2 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Gloria Bistriţa | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | FC Bacau | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | Cetatea Suceava | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Metaloglobus | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Metalul Buzău | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 13 | CS Afumati | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Bihor Oradea | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.0 | 80% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Ştefăneşti | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 17 | ASA Targu Mures | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Dumbrăviţa | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 19 | CS Dinamo București | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1.4 | 60% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 21 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 22 | Unirea Slobozia | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2.4 | 80% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | AFC Hermannstadt | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |