FC Bacau is expected to secure a home win, but their recent form has been a concern, coming off a defeat in their last match against Popești-Leordeni. The model's selection is a Home win, with a 45% probability, while a draw is 28% likely and an away win 27%. The expected total goals in this match is 2.6, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 13.4% of the time.
At home, FC Bacau have been scoring an average of 3 goals and conceding 2, while CSA Steaua București, away from home, have been scoring 1.88 goals and conceding 1.88 against weaker opponents.
The model suggests selecting Over 1.5 goals, with a 75.4% probability, and Under 3.5 goals, with a 72.6% probability. In terms of match outcomes, FC Bacau have a 45% chance of winning, a 28% chance of a draw, and CSA Steaua București have a 27% chance of winning.
The win extends FC Bacau's run of form, following a 3-0 victory over CSA Steaua București. The final score of 3-0 confirms the actual result of a home win, as predicted by the Pythia model. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 45%. The suggested picks largely came in, with the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hitting with a 75.4% probability, and Under 3.5 goals also hitting, as predicted with a 72.5% probability.
FC Bacau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.23 | 1.47 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.33 | 1.17 | 1.38 | 0.92 | 1.27 | 1.45 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.60 | 1.40 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
CSA Steaua Bucureşti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.57 | 1.73 | 1.60 | 1.27 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.52 | 1.72 | 1.92 | 1.62 | 1.08 | 1.83 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.40 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
| CSA Steaua Bucureşti goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 9.5% | 13% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.1% | 9.2% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
FC Bacau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.60 | 0.87 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.75 | 0.58 | 0.85 | 0.31 | 0.64 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.80 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
CSA Steaua Bucureşti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.93 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.68 | 1.04 | 0.85 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.08 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
FC Bacau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.80 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
CSA Steaua Bucureşti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.84 | 0.68 | 1.08 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 75.4% | 1.24 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.23 | +1.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 72.5% | 1.32 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.31 | +3.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/25 | H | 3-2 |
FC Bacau| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 |
CSA Steaua Bucureşti| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 02/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 07/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 01/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 15/04/26 | H | 3-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 2.6 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | - |
| 2 | Slatina | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 2.4 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 | Concordia | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 4 | CSM Reşiţa | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Chindia Targoviste | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Popești-Leordeni | 5 | 9 | 40% | 1.8 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 3.2 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Gloria Bistriţa | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | FC Bacau | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | Cetatea Suceava | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Metaloglobus | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Metalul Buzău | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 13 | CS Afumati | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Bihor Oradea | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.0 | 80% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Ştefăneşti | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 17 | ASA Targu Mures | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Dumbrăviţa | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 19 | CS Dinamo București | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1.4 | 60% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 21 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 22 | Unirea Slobozia | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2.4 | 80% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | AFC Hermannstadt | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |