FC Bacau are tipped to lift the win, with the model favouring a home victory at 44%. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.7% probability. FC Bacau’s home form shows they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Dumbrăvița, on the road, averages 1.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded versus comparable opposition. The match-result probabilities read 44% for a home win, 29% for a draw, and 27% for an away win. In addition to the favoured outcome, the model offers several selections: Under 3.5 goals at 74.6%, Over 1.5 goals at 73.6%. The recent form narrative adds that FC Bacau are coming off a 2-2 draw, while Dumbrăvița return after a 0-1 defeat, setting the stage for a tightly contested game.
FC Bacau’s 1-0 win over Dumbrăviţa extended their recent form, coming off a draw to stay on a positive run. The model had picked a home win with a 44% probability, and that call proved correct. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 13.7%, but the match settled for 1-0, the top-scoring 2-1 scenario at 9.1% never materialised. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, supported by a 74.6% probability, while its Over 1.5 pick missed despite a 73.6% chance. Overall, the predictions were largely accurate, with only the over-goals choice falling short.
FC Bacau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.06 | 1.41 | 0.75 | 1.12 | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.00 | 1.54 | 0.75 | 1.12 | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.67 | 0.67 | - | - | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 18% (-14pp vs league) | |||||
Dumbrăviţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.53 | 0.87 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.93 | 1.86 | 0.80 | 2.60 | 1.00 | 1.44 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.25 | 1.25 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 1.83 | 2.17 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| Dumbrăviţa goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.0% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 10% | 14% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.3% | 9.1% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
FC Bacau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.59 | 0.88 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.67 | 1.11 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.54 | 0.92 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 0.67 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 29% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Dumbrăviţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.83 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.57 | 1.21 | 0.60 | 1.80 | 0.56 | 0.89 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.69 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
FC Bacau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.46 | 0.62 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Dumbrăviţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.70 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.36 | 0.64 | 0.20 | 0.80 | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.56 | 0.75 | 0.40 | 0.10 | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 74.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 73.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
FC Bacau| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 01/11/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/10/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 04/10/25 | A | 4-0 | |
| 27/09/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 19/09/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 13/09/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 31/08/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 23/08/25 | H | 1-1 |
Dumbrăviţa| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 02/11/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 30/10/25 | H | 0-4 | |
| 25/10/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 18/10/25 | A | 5-1 | |
| 04/10/25 | A | 1-4 | |
| 27/09/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 20/09/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 13/09/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 02/09/25 | A | 2-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 31 | 69 | 68% | 2.2 | 50 | 21 | +29 | 2.3 | 58% | 39% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | FC Voluntari | 31 | 64 | 61% | 2.1 | 51 | 24 | +27 | 2.4 | 68% | 39% | 19% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 3 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 30 | 64 | 63% | 2.1 | 49 | 23 | +26 | 2.4 | 77% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | ASA Targu Mures | 28 | 51 | 54% | 1.8 | 53 | 29 | +24 | 2.9 | 79% | 64% | 36% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | Metalul Buzău | 28 | 50 | 57% | 1.8 | 49 | 32 | +17 | 2.9 | 71% | 54% | 32% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | Bihor Oradea | 31 | 50 | 48% | 1.6 | 56 | 45 | +11 | 3.3 | 87% | 71% | 42% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 31 | 49 | 48% | 1.6 | 49 | 46 | +3 | 3.1 | 81% | 58% | 35% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | - |
| 8 | Slatina | 28 | 43 | 43% | 1.5 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 2.6 | 79% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | - |
| 9 | FC Bacau | 28 | 42 | 43% | 1.5 | 35 | 37 | -2 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | - |
| 10 | Concordia | 28 | 41 | 43% | 1.5 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 2.4 | 68% | 36% | 18% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 11 | Politehnica Iasi | 28 | 41 | 43% | 1.5 | 32 | 28 | +4 | 2.1 | 61% | 36% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | - |
| 12 | CSM Reşiţa | 28 | 40 | 43% | 1.4 | 41 | 39 | +2 | 2.9 | 82% | 46% | 32% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | - |
| 13 | Chindia Targoviste | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 42 | 41 | +1 | 2.8 | 77% | 47% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 14 | CS Afumati | 28 | 37 | 39% | 1.3 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 2.6 | 71% | 50% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 15 | Gloria Bistriţa | 28 | 34 | 32% | 1.2 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 2.7 | 82% | 57% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | - |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 30 | 34 | 30% | 1.1 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 2.7 | 73% | 43% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | - |
| 17 | Dumbrăviţa | 28 | 32 | 32% | 1.1 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 2.5 | 64% | 46% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | - |
| 18 | CSM Satu Mare | 28 | 28 | 29% | 1.0 | 35 | 54 | -19 | 3.2 | 79% | 57% | 46% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.9 | - |
| 19 | Tunari | 28 | 27 | 21% | 1.0 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 2.6 | 86% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 20 | CS Dinamo București | 30 | 26 | 20% | 0.9 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 2.6 | 83% | 43% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 21 | Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ | 28 | 20 | 18% | 0.7 | 24 | 62 | -38 | 3.1 | 86% | 61% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 2.2 | - |
| 22 | Muscelul Câmpulung Elite | 28 | 11 | 7% | 0.4 | 14 | 72 | -58 | 3.1 | 71% | 57% | 36% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.6 | - |