FC Bacau are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model favouring a home win. The odds lean 50% for a Bacau victory, 26% for a draw and 24% for a Dumbrăvița win. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of two goals and a 12.3% chance of a 1-1 scoreline. Bacau’s home form shows they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.07 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Dumbrăvița, on the road, averages 1.22 scored and 1.56 conceded. The model’s single selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a 79% probability. The recent form narrative is that Bacau are coming off a draw, whereas Dumbrăvița are returning from a defeat. All figures are presented as percentages, with each selection and outcome stated once.
FC Bacau’s win extended a modest run, ending a draw and adding a victory to their recent form. The final score was 1-0, confirming a home win. The model had picked a home win with a 50% probability, and this call proved correct. The suggested pick Over 1.5 goals, with a 79% probability, missed as only one goal was scored. The match delivered the most likely 1-0 scoreline, aligning with the 25% chance for the most probable total of two goals. Overall, the model’s favourite was right, but its single additional suggestion fell short.
FC Bacau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.20 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.38 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.07 | 1.50 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
Dumbrăviţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.57 | 1.12 | 1.31 | 1.14 | 1.86 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 1.08 | 2.17 | 1.14 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.11 | 0.78 | 1.22 | 1.56 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| Dumbrăviţa goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 12% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.5% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 4.9% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
FC Bacau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.87 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.86 | 0.43 | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.80 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Dumbrăviţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.80 | 0.56 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.50 | 1.25 | 0.71 | 1.14 | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.56 | 0.50 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
FC Bacau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.43 | 0.64 | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Dumbrăviţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.77 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.64 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.58 | 0.92 | 0.43 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.61 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.56 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 79.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/25 | H | 1-0 |
FC Bacau| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 13/12/25 | A | 1-5 |
Dumbrăviţa| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 10/02/26 | H | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 31 | 69 | 68% | 2.2 | 50 | 21 | +29 | 2.3 | 58% | 39% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | FC Voluntari | 31 | 64 | 61% | 2.1 | 51 | 24 | +27 | 2.4 | 68% | 39% | 19% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 3 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 30 | 64 | 63% | 2.1 | 49 | 23 | +26 | 2.4 | 77% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | ASA Targu Mures | 28 | 51 | 54% | 1.8 | 53 | 29 | +24 | 2.9 | 79% | 64% | 36% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | Metalul Buzău | 28 | 50 | 57% | 1.8 | 49 | 32 | +17 | 2.9 | 71% | 54% | 32% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | Bihor Oradea | 31 | 50 | 48% | 1.6 | 56 | 45 | +11 | 3.3 | 87% | 71% | 42% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 31 | 49 | 48% | 1.6 | 49 | 46 | +3 | 3.1 | 81% | 58% | 35% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | - |
| 8 | Slatina | 28 | 43 | 43% | 1.5 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 2.6 | 79% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | - |
| 9 | FC Bacau | 28 | 42 | 43% | 1.5 | 35 | 37 | -2 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | - |
| 10 | Concordia | 28 | 41 | 43% | 1.5 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 2.4 | 68% | 36% | 18% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 11 | Politehnica Iasi | 28 | 41 | 43% | 1.5 | 32 | 28 | +4 | 2.1 | 61% | 36% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | - |
| 12 | CSM Reşiţa | 28 | 40 | 43% | 1.4 | 41 | 39 | +2 | 2.9 | 82% | 46% | 32% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | - |
| 13 | Chindia Targoviste | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 42 | 41 | +1 | 2.8 | 77% | 47% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 14 | CS Afumati | 28 | 37 | 39% | 1.3 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 2.6 | 71% | 50% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 15 | Gloria Bistriţa | 28 | 34 | 32% | 1.2 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 2.7 | 82% | 57% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | - |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 30 | 34 | 30% | 1.1 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 2.7 | 73% | 43% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | - |
| 17 | Dumbrăviţa | 28 | 32 | 32% | 1.1 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 2.5 | 64% | 46% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | - |
| 18 | CSM Satu Mare | 28 | 28 | 29% | 1.0 | 35 | 54 | -19 | 3.2 | 79% | 57% | 46% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.9 | - |
| 19 | Tunari | 28 | 27 | 21% | 1.0 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 2.6 | 86% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 20 | CS Dinamo București | 30 | 26 | 20% | 0.9 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 2.6 | 83% | 43% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 21 | Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ | 28 | 20 | 18% | 0.7 | 24 | 62 | -38 | 3.1 | 86% | 61% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 2.2 | - |
| 22 | Muscelul Câmpulung Elite | 28 | 11 | 7% | 0.4 | 14 | 72 | -58 | 3.1 | 71% | 57% | 36% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.6 | - |