FC Bacau are favoured to win this Liga II clash, with a 46% chance of triumph, 28% for a draw and 27% for Gloria Bistrița to lift the trophy. The model expects 2.7 goals in total, leaning toward a modest 2-goal affair (26% probability). The single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 13.2% chance. FC Bacau, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.67 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. Gloria Bistrița, on the road, average 1.75 goals scored and 1.08 conceded. Recent form shows Bacau coming off a 2-2 draw, while Gloria are buoyed by a 1-0 win. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 5.5 (94.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.4%), Home +2 handicap (89.1%) and Under 4.5 (86.4%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Bacau win
45.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa win
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Bacau
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.20
1.67
0.93
1.33
1.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.45
1.09
1.67
0.75
1.20
1.50
vs Weaker (6)
2.00
1.33
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gloria Bistriţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gloria Bistriţa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.03
1.19
0.94
1.71
1.14
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.75
0.50
2.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (23)
1.65
0.91
1.55
0.73
1.75
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Bacau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.9%
Under 1.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.1%
Under 2.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.7%
Under 3.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.4%
No
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
10.5%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
9.1%
2-0
8.6%
0-1
7.3%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
4.8%
FC Bacau goals ↓
Gloria Bistriţa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
7.3%
4.5%
1.6%
0.4%
1
10%
14%
6.6%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.6%
9.1%
4.8%
1.7%
0.5%
3
4.2%
4.4%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.5%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Bacau goals (down), columns = Gloria Bistriţa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.60
Slatina
2.60
Concordia
2.40
CSM Reşiţa
2.40
Popești-Leordeni
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.80
FC Bacau
1.60
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.60
Metalul Buzău
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
CS Afumati
1.40
Ştefăneşti
1.20
Bihor Oradea
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
ASA Targu Mures
0.80
CS Dinamo București
0.60
Dumbrăviţa
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.40
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.20
Unirea Slobozia
0.20
FC Bacau is 0.20 points worse than Gloria Bistriţa in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Concordia
2.20
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.20
Popești-Leordeni
2.00
Chindia Targoviste
2.00
FC Bacau
2.00
Slatina
2.00
CSM Reşiţa
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Bihor Oradea
1.20
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.20
CS Afumati
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.00
Metalul Buzău
1.00
CS Dinamo București
0.80
Dumbrăviţa
0.80
Ştefăneşti
0.80
ASA Targu Mures
0.60
Unirea Slobozia
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.20
FC Bacau is 0.60 goals better than Gloria Bistriţa in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.40
Slatina
0.40
Gloria Bistriţa
0.80
Bihor Oradea
0.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.00
FC Bacau
1.00
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.00
Popești-Leordeni
1.20
Dumbrăviţa
1.20
CSM Reşiţa
1.20
Metalul Buzău
1.20
CSM Satu Mare
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Concordia
1.60
ASA Targu Mures
1.60
Metaloglobus
1.60
Unirea Slobozia
1.80
CS Afumati
1.80
CS Dinamo București
2.00
Ştefăneşti
2.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
2.20
FC Bacau is 0.20 goals worse than Gloria Bistriţa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Bacau or Draw
73.7%
Avg Implied -
45%
29%
26%
covers FC Bacau + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Bacau or Gloria Bistriţa
71.3%
Avg Implied -
45%
29%
26%
covers FC Bacau + Gloria Bistriţa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Gloria Bistriţa
55.0%
Avg Implied -
45%
29%
26%
covers Draw + Gloria Bistriţa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Bacau over/under 0.5
Over
76.7%
Under
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Bacau over/under 1.5
Over
42.8%
Under
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Bacau over/under 2.5
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Bacau over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 0.5
Over
65.4%
Under
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 1.5
Over
28.7%
Under
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 2.5
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Bacau, so a minus line means FC Bacau give that many goals of a start and Gloria Bistriţa receive them. At -1, FC Bacau must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Bacau win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Bacau)
FC Bacau -2
8.8%
Draw -2
13.9%
Gloria Bistriţa +2
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Bacau)
FC Bacau -1
22.7%
Draw -1
22.2%
Gloria Bistriţa +1
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Bacau)
FC Bacau +1
73.7%
Draw +1
15.9%
Gloria Bistriţa -1
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Bacau)
FC Bacau +2
89.6%
Draw +2
7.4%
Gloria Bistriţa -2
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Bacau
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.93
0.33
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.55
1.00
0.17
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Gloria Bistriţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gloria Bistriţa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.44
0.31
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.39
0.64
0.18
0.75
0.58
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.33
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Bacau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Bacau over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Bacau over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Bacau over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Bacau
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.73
0.60
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.55
0.67
0.58
0.70
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Gloria Bistriţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gloria Bistriţa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
0.75
0.62
1.07
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.52
0.91
0.55
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Bacau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Bacau over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Bacau over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Bacau over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gloria Bistriţa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (37)
€11m
CON (26)
€5m
BO (23)
€4m
CT (21)
€3m
CSB (24)
€3m
SLA (23)
€3m
ATM (22)
€3m
CR (20)
€3m
MB (19)
€3m
FB (23)
€2m
VŞ (19)
€2m
GB (20)
€2m
CSM (19)
€2m
MET (15)
€1m
US (13)
€1m
DUM (15)
€1m
CA (14)
€1m
CDB (14)
€1m
ŞTE (8)
€1m
CRV (10)
€1m
POP (9)
€1m
FC Bacau and Gloria Bistriţa have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (13)
€5m
CON (11)
€2m
CT (8)
€2m
SLA (10)
€1m
ATM (7)
€1m
MB (6)
€1m
CSB (8)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
CR (9)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
GB (8)
€1m
FB (8)
€1m
MET (5)
€1m
CRV (5)
€1m
CA (6)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
CSM (7)
€0m
CDB (3)
€0m
POP (3)
€0m
DUM (3)
€0m
ŞTE (2)
€0m
FC Bacau and Gloria Bistriţa have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€2m
CON (6)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
CSB (6)
€1m
FB (6)
€1m
ATM (4)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
GB (5)
€0m
DUM (4)
€0m
CR (4)
€0m
MB (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
POP (4)
€0m
CT (2)
€0m
MET (3)
€0m
VŞ (3)
€0m
ŞTE (3)
€0m
CSM (4)
€0m
SLA (4)
€0m
CDB (4)
€0m
CRV (1)
€0m
FC Bacau and Gloria Bistriţa have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (15)
€5m
BO (11)
€2m
SLA (9)
€1m
CR (7)
€1m
CSB (10)
€1m
CT (11)
€1m
ATM (11)
€1m
MB (9)
€1m
CON (9)
€1m
CSM (8)
€1m
FB (9)
€1m
CDB (7)
€1m
ŞTE (3)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
DUM (8)
€1m
GB (7)
€1m
MET (7)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
CRV (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
POP (2)
€0m
FC Bacau and Gloria Bistriţa have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Romania: Liga II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →