The contest between FC Bacau and Slatina is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The probability of a home victory sits at 40 %, a draw at 27 %, and an away win at 33 %. The expected total goals is 2.9, yet the most likely total is two goals, making a 1-1 scoreline the single most probable outcome with a 12.7 % chance. FC Bacau, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, while Slatina, on the road, averages 1.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.2 %), Under 6.5 (97.1 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.4 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (94.8 % with a 3 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.2 % with a 3 % edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (93.1 % with a 2 % edge). The match is finely balanced, but the model’s pick remains a home win.
The pre-match favourite, FC Bacau, failed to deliver a win, as the match finished 0-0, a draw. The model had picked a home win with a 40% probability, but the outcome proved wrong. The game was a tight, low-scoring affair, with both sides staying unbeaten in their last five outings, each ending with a 0-0 stalemate against the other. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.9%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.7%, Under 6.5 at 97.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.3%, Away under 3.5 goals at 94.8%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 93.1%. The final score confirmed the low-scoring nature predicted by the model.
FC Bacau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.17 | 1.71 | 0.86 | 1.31 | 1.44 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.45 | 1.09 | 1.67 | 0.75 | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.86 | 1.29 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Slatina| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.10 | 1.40 | 0.80 | 1.93 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 2.50 | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.61 | 1.09 | 1.10 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 1.54 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 2.60 | 0.60 | 3.33 | 0.67 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Slatina goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 13% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 6.4% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
FC Bacau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.21 | 0.56 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.77 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.17 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.86 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Slatina| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.50 | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.57 | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.30 | 0.46 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.20 | 0.40 | 1.67 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
FC Bacau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.57 | 0.71 | 0.64 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.68 | 0.55 | 0.67 | 0.58 | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.00 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Slatina| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.43 | 0.60 | 0.33 | 1.47 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.04 | 0.43 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 1.54 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.40 | 0.20 | 1.67 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 99.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 97.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +3.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 97.7% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +3.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 6.5 | 97.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 96.5% | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.01 | - | - | - | +3.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 95.3% | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.01 | - | - | - | +2.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 94.8% | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.01 | - | - | - | +2.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 93.1% | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.01 | - | - | - | -0.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 | 92.5% | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.01 | - | -0.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 87.6% | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.05 | - | - | +0.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 86.8% | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.05 | 1.04 | -1.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 86.3% | 1.07 | 1.09 | 1.07 | 1.05 | - | - | -0.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 84.4% | 1.11 | 1.13 | 1.10 | - | - | - | +3.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 83.9% | 1.13 | 1.15 | 1.12 | 1.11 | - | - | +1.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 83.8% | 1.10 | 1.12 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.09 | - | -0.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 | 83.1% | 1.06 | 1.09 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 1.04 | -4.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 80.3% | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.08 | - | -4.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Away +2 handicap | 79.9% | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1.11 | - | - | +0.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 79.9% | 1.15 | 1.17 | 1.14 | 1.13 | - | - | -0.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 79.8% | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.32 | +10.4% | ✗ Miss |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 79.7% | 1.14 | 1.16 | 1.13 | 1.12 | - | - | -1.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 79.7% | 1.27 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.26 | - | +6.8% | ✗ Miss |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 78.2% | 1.32 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.30 | 1.30 | +8.5% | ✗ Miss |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 74.9% | 1.32 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.30 | +5.0% | ✗ Miss |
| Home or Away | 73.0% | 1.30 | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.32 | +2.5% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 72.8% | 1.42 | 1.47 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.44 | +7.8% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 | H | 3-2 |
FC Bacau| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 19/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 16/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 12/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-1 |
Slatina| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 19/08/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 2.6 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | - |
| 2 | Slatina | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 2.4 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 | Concordia | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 4 | CSM Reşiţa | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Chindia Targoviste | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Popești-Leordeni | 5 | 9 | 40% | 1.8 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 3.2 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Gloria Bistriţa | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | FC Bacau | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | Cetatea Suceava | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Metaloglobus | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Metalul Buzău | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 13 | CS Afumati | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Bihor Oradea | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.0 | 80% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Ştefăneşti | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 17 | ASA Targu Mures | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Dumbrăviţa | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 19 | CS Dinamo București | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1.4 | 60% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 21 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 22 | Unirea Slobozia | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2.4 | 80% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | AFC Hermannstadt | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |