PythiaFootballBETA
FC Basel 1893 are the clear favourites to win this match, with the Pythia prediction model rating them at 66% to take the three points. This is largely due to Lausanne's poor away form, particularly against stronger opponents, where they average just 0.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded.
The most likely match result is a home win, with the expected total goals standing at 3.1. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 to FC Basel 1893, with a probability of 11.2%. FC Basel 1893 have struggled to score at home, averaging just 1 goal per match, but they have also been somewhat defensively solid, conceding 1.4 goals on average.
The Pythia model has selected several other outcomes, including Over 1.5 goals at 81.9%, Over 21.5 fouls at 79.1%, and Over 3.5 cards at 74.5%. The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 66%, 21%, and 13% respectively.
FC Basel 1893's three-match winning streak came to an end as they fell to a 0-1 defeat at home to Lausanne. The actual result was an away win, a surprise given FC Basel 1893's 66% chance of taking all three points before kick-off. The model correctly identified Lausanne as the pre-match favourite, albeit with a lower probability of 13%. The model's selection of an away win was incorrect. The model's selection of Over 21.5 fouls hit, while Over 3.5 cards also came in, both with high probabilities of 79.1% and 74.5% respectively. The model's call of Over 1.5 goals missed, given its 81.9% probability.
FC Basel 1893| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.67 | 1.20 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 2.07 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 1.00 | 2.33 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.95 | 1.68 | 1.17 | 1.33 | 0.57 | 2.29 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 2.00 | 1.38 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 2.17 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Lausanne| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 1.70 | 1.20 | 1.60 | 0.93 | 1.80 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.17 | 1.83 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.88 | 1.65 | 1.25 | 1.88 | 0.56 | 1.44 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.43 | 1.71 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
| Lausanne goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 11% | 9.8% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 8.1% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
FC Basel 1893LausanneFC Basel 1893| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.4 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 26.8 | 27.4 | 26.2 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 7.3 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 26.3 | 24.5 | 27.2 |
| vs Similar (31) | 10.7 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 26.6 | 27.7 | 25.5 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 10.9 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 27.5 | 27.6 | 27.3 |
| % over line | 56% | 52% | 60% | 74% | 80% | 68% | 86% | 92% | 80% |
| % under line | 44% | 48% | 40% | 26% | 20% | 32% | 14% | 8% | 20% |
Lausanne| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.7 | 10.4 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 24.6 | 24.2 | 25.0 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 10.6 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 26.5 | 26.4 | 26.6 |
| vs Similar (32) | 10.8 | 10.7 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 24.1 | 23.2 | 24.9 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 10.4 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 24.4 | 25.2 | 23.5 |
| % over line | 68% | 56% | 80% | 78% | 64% | 92% | 76% | 72% | 80% |
| % under line | 32% | 44% | 20% | 22% | 36% | 8% | 24% | 28% | 20% |
FC Basel 1893| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.37 | 0.68 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.14 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.75 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Lausanne| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.59 | 0.47 | 1.00 | 0.62 | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.43 | 0.86 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 91.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 88.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 83.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 81.9% | 1.14 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.14 | -0.0% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 3.5 cards | 75.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 74.2% | 1.33 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.31 | +5.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 71.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 14/12/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 26/10/25 | A | 5-1 | |
| 14/05/25 | A | 2-3 | |
| 16/02/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 30/11/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 21/07/24 | A | 3-2 | |
| 10/05/24 | A | 0-0 |
FC Basel 1893| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 14/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 3-1 |
Lausanne| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 12/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 0-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  FC Lugano | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 8.7 | 33% | 2.7 | 0% | 21.7 | 67% | 69 | 8 | 9 | 52 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 56% |
| 2 |  BSC Young Boys | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 5.3 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 8.0 | 33% | 4.0 | 33% | 28.0 | 100% | 83 | 18 | 21 | 44 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 55% |
| 3 |  FC ST. Gallen | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 12.0 | 67% | 4.7 | 67% | 26.7 | 67% | 41 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 45% |
| 4 |  FC Sion | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 8.7 | 67% | 3.7 | 33% | 21.3 | 33% | 29 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 51% |
| 5 | FC Basel 1893 | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 2.7 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 11.0 | 67% | 5.5 | 100% | 27.7 | 100% | 70 | 37 | 17 | 15 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 55% |
| 6 | Lausanne | 3 | 5 | 33% | 1.7 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 2.3 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 7.7 | 33% | 7.0 | 100% | 31.0 | 100% | 47 | 18 | 9 | 20 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 7 |  Servette FC | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 13.0 | 100% | 6.5 | 100% | 24.7 | 100% | 17 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 8 |  FC Zurich | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 8.7 | 33% | 4.0 | 67% | 30.3 | 100% | 58 | 23 | 16 | 19 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 51% |
| 9 |  FC Thun | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 5.3 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 11.0 | 33% | 3.3 | 67% | 26.0 | 100% | 30 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 46% |
| 10 |  Grasshoppers | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 8.7 | 33% | 5.7 | 67% | 24.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 45% |
| 11 |  FC Luzern | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 12.7 | 67% | 4.7 | 67% | 22.0 | 67% | 41 | 15 | 5 | 20 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 50% |
| 12 |  FC Vaduz | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 12.0 | 100% | 3.7 | 33% | 19.3 | 33% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | 2.7 | - |