FC Besa Peja are tipped to win the match at home, with a 42% chance of victory, 28% for a draw and 30% for Dinamo Ferizaj to win. The expected total goals hover around 2.7, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.2% probability. Besa’s home form shows they average one goal scored and 1.5 conceded against stronger opponents, while Dinamo’s away record against weaker teams yields 1.83 goals scored and 1.25 conceded.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Under 5.5 (94.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.0%), Home +2 handicap (86.7%) and Under 4.5 (85.6%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcome is given a win probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Besa Peja win
39.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj win
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Besa Peja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.33
1.20
1.00
0.93
1.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
2.00
0.75
1.50
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (22)
1.18
1.09
1.36
0.82
1.00
1.36
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Ferizaj) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Ferizaj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.17
2.40
1.00
1.60
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.50
2.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (26)
2.12
1.12
2.46
1.00
1.77
1.23
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Besa Peja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.7%
Under 2.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
9.1%
0-0
8.8%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
5.6%
FC Besa Peja goals ↓
Dinamo Ferizaj goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
7.9%
5.6%
2.3%
0.7%
1
9.1%
14%
7.6%
3.1%
0.9%
2
7.0%
8.6%
5.2%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.2%
3.9%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.1%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Besa Peja goals (down), columns = Dinamo Ferizaj goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
FC Besa Peja is 1.03 points worse than Dinamo Ferizaj in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 2.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
FC Besa Peja is 0.61 goals worse than Dinamo Ferizaj in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
FC Besa Peja is 0.43 goals worse than Dinamo Ferizaj in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Besa Peja or Draw
67.9%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
32%
covers FC Besa Peja + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja or Dinamo Ferizaj
71.1%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
32%
covers FC Besa Peja + Dinamo Ferizaj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dinamo Ferizaj
61.0%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
32%
covers Draw + Dinamo Ferizaj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Besa Peja over/under 0.5
Over
74.5%
Under
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 1.5
Over
39.6%
Under
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 2.5
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 0.5
Over
70.4%
Under
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 1.5
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 2.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Besa Peja, so a minus line means FC Besa Peja give that many goals of a start and Dinamo Ferizaj receive them. At -1, FC Besa Peja must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Besa Peja win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Besa Peja)
FC Besa Peja -2
6.8%
Draw -2
11.9%
Dinamo Ferizaj +2
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Besa Peja)
FC Besa Peja -1
18.6%
Draw -1
20.4%
Dinamo Ferizaj +1
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Besa Peja)
FC Besa Peja +1
67.9%
Draw +1
18.0%
Dinamo Ferizaj -1
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Besa Peja)
FC Besa Peja +2
86.0%
Draw +2
9.4%
Dinamo Ferizaj -2
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Besa Peja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.60
0.36
0.29
0.19
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.86
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.32
0.50
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Ferizaj) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Ferizaj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.93
0.60
0.40
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.62
0.50
0.77
0.69
0.46
0.31
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Besa Peja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Besa Peja over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Besa Peja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.71
0.57
0.69
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.14
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.73
0.80
0.40
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Ferizaj) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Ferizaj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.70
1.20
0.33
1.07
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (26)
1.27
0.58
1.38
0.23
1.15
0.92
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Besa Peja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Besa Peja over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →