PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

FC Besa Peja vs Dinamo Ferizaj Prediction & Stats

Date: 26/09/2026
Time: 14:30
FC Besa Peja
FC Besa Peja
Vs
39%
29%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dinamo Ferizaj
Dinamo Ferizaj
Kosovo: Liga E Pare
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

FC Besa Peja are tipped to win the match at home, with a 42% chance of victory, 28% for a draw and 30% for Dinamo Ferizaj to win. The expected total goals hover around 2.7, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.2% probability. Besa’s home form shows they average one goal scored and 1.5 conceded against stronger opponents, while Dinamo’s away record against weaker teams yields 1.83 goals scored and 1.25 conceded.

The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Under 5.5 (94.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.0%), Home +2 handicap (86.7%) and Under 4.5 (85.6%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcome is given a win probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Besa Peja win
39.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj win
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC Besa PejaFC Besa Peja

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W23L11D01L31W32W10W12L01LA·KIK05/04H·SUH12/04A·DIN19/04H·RIL26/04A·LIR03/05H·TEF09/05A·VJO16/05H·VJO16/08A·IST22/08H·VËL30/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.331.201.000.931.67
vs Stronger (7)0.712.000.751.500.672.67
vs Similar (22)1.181.091.360.821.001.36
vs Weaker (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Ferizaj) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo FerizajDinamo Ferizaj

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W32W02L43W15L20W02L20W50W11DA·KIK25/04H·SUH03/05A·TRE09/05A·RIL16/05H·LIR23/05A·LIR29/05H·LLA06/06H·RIL16/08H·TRE23/08A·KIK30/08← SuperligaLiga E Pare →
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.172.401.001.601.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.251.502.001.000.502.00
vs Weaker (26)2.121.122.461.001.771.23
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Besa Peja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.7%
Under 2.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
9.1%
0-0
8.8%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
5.6%
FC Besa Peja goals ↓
Dinamo Ferizaj goals →
01234
08.8%7.9%5.6%2.3%0.7%
19.1%14%7.6%3.1%0.9%
27.0%8.6%5.2%2.1%0.6%
33.2%3.9%2.4%1.0%0.3%
41.1%1.3%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Besa Peja goals (down), columns = Dinamo Ferizaj goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
FC Besa Peja is 1.03 points worse than Dinamo Ferizaj in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 2.09).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
FC Besa Peja is 0.61 goals worse than Dinamo Ferizaj in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.79).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
FC Besa Peja is 0.43 goals worse than Dinamo Ferizaj in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.15).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Besa Peja or Draw
67.9%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
32%
covers FC Besa Peja + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja or Dinamo Ferizaj
71.1%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
32%
covers FC Besa Peja + Dinamo Ferizaj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dinamo Ferizaj
61.0%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
32%
covers Draw + Dinamo Ferizaj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Besa Peja over/under 0.5
Over
74.5%
Under
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 1.5
Over
39.6%
Under
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 2.5
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 0.5
Over
70.4%
Under
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 1.5
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 2.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to FC Besa Peja, so a minus line means FC Besa Peja give that many goals of a start and Dinamo Ferizaj receive them. At -1, FC Besa Peja must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Besa Peja win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Besa Peja)
FC Besa Peja -2
6.8%
Draw -2
11.9%
Dinamo Ferizaj +2
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Besa Peja)
FC Besa Peja -1
18.6%
Draw -1
20.4%
Dinamo Ferizaj +1
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Besa Peja)
FC Besa Peja +1
67.9%
Draw +1
18.0%
Dinamo Ferizaj -1
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Besa Peja)
FC Besa Peja +2
86.0%
Draw +2
9.4%
Dinamo Ferizaj -2
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC Besa PejaFC Besa Peja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W02L00D00D22D00D01L00DA·TRE29/03A·KIK05/04H·SUH12/04A·DIN19/04A·LIR03/05H·TEF09/05A·VJO16/05H·VJO16/08A·IST22/08H·VËL30/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.600.360.290.190.88
vs Stronger (7)0.140.860.250.500.001.33
vs Similar (22)0.320.500.400.200.250.75
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Ferizaj) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo FerizajDinamo Ferizaj

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W11D00D00D05L00D02L10W00D10WA·KIK25/04H·SUH03/05A·TRE09/05A·RIL16/05H·LIR23/05A·LIR29/05H·LLA06/06H·RIL16/08H·TRE23/08A·KIK30/08← SuperligaLiga E Pare →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.430.930.600.400.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.000.002.000.000.000.00
vs Weaker (26)0.620.500.770.690.460.31
Clean sheet %77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Besa Peja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Besa Peja over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC Besa PejaFC Besa Peja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L10W00D21W01L31W10W10W11D01LA·TRE29/03A·KIK05/04H·SUH12/04A·DIN19/04A·LIR03/05H·TEF09/05A·VJO16/05H·VJO16/08A·IST22/08H·VËL30/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.830.710.570.691.06
vs Stronger (7)0.571.140.501.000.671.33
vs Similar (22)0.730.730.800.400.671.00
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Ferizaj) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo FerizajDinamo Ferizaj

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D21W02L43W10W20W00D10W50W01LA·KIK25/04H·SUH03/05A·TRE09/05A·RIL16/05H·LIR23/05A·LIR29/05H·LLA06/06H·RIL16/08H·TRE23/08A·KIK30/08← SuperligaLiga E Pare →
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.701.200.331.071.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.251.500.001.000.502.00
vs Weaker (26)1.270.581.380.231.150.92
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Besa Peja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Besa Peja over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.5%-------
Under 6.598.3%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.5%-------
Under 5.595.2%-------
Home under 3.5 goals95.0%-------
Under 4.588.0%-------
Away under 2.5 goals87.6%-------
Home +2 handicap86.0%-------
Home under 2.5 goals84.2%-------
Away +2 handicap81.4%-------
Home over 0.5 goals74.5%-------
Over 1.574.2%-------
Under 3.574.0%-------
Home or Away71.1%-------
Away over 0.5 goals70.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
FBP wins
0
Draws
2
DF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Besa Peja vs Dinamo Ferizaj · H/A from FBP
DateH/AGameScore
19/04/26ADinamo Ferizaj Vs FBP3-2
18/10/25HFBP Vs Dinamo Ferizaj1-3

FC Besa PejaFC Besa Peja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HFBP Vs Vëllaznimi0-1
22/08/26AIstogu Vs FBP2-1
16/08/26HFBP Vs Vjosa1-0
16/05/26AVjosa Vs FBP2-3
09/05/26HFBP Vs Tefik Canga3-1
03/05/26ALiria Prizren Vs FBP1-0
26/04/26HFBP Vs Rilindja 19741-1
19/04/26ADinamo Ferizaj Vs FBP3-2
12/04/26HFBP Vs Suhareka1-0
05/04/26AKika Vs FBP0-1

Dinamo FerizajDinamo Ferizaj

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26AKika Vs DF1-1
23/08/26HDF Vs Trepça Mitrovicë5-0
16/08/26HDF Vs Rilindja 19742-0
06/06/26HDF Vs Llapi0-2
29/05/26ALiria Prizren Vs DF0-2
23/05/26HDF Vs Liria Prizren1-5
16/05/26ARilindja 1974 Vs DF3-4
09/05/26ATrepça'89 Vs DF2-0
03/05/26HDF Vs Suhareka3-2
25/04/26AKika Vs DF0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Besa Peja
FC Besa Peja
Kosovo: Liga E Pare
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.06
HomeWDWWL1.56
AwayWLLWL0.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%39%17%
AVG goals2.672.502.83
Over 1.5 %67%61%72%
Over 2.5 %50%39%61%
Over 3.5 %22%28%17%
Scored1.141.390.89
Conceded1.531.111.94
BTTS53%56%50%
Clean Sheet25%39%11%
Corners---
Cards---
Dinamo Ferizaj
Dinamo Ferizaj
Kosovo: Liga E Pare
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWD2.08
HomeWLLWW2.40
AwayWLWWD1.74
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %64%75%53%
AVG goals2.902.803.00
Over 1.5 %77%85%68%
Over 2.5 %49%45%53%
Over 3.5 %33%30%37%
Scored1.822.001.63
Conceded1.080.801.37
BTTS49%40%58%
Clean Sheet41%55%26%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VëllaznimiVëllaznimi39
100%
3.0
61+5
2.3
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.3
-
2Dinamo FerizajDinamo Ferizaj37
67%
2.3
81+7
3.0
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.70.3
-
3TrepçaTrepça'8937
67%
2.3
30+3
1.0
33%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.0
-
4Liria PrizrenLiria Prizren37
67%
2.3
42+2
2.0
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.7
-
5SuharekaSuhareka36
67%
2.0
73+4
3.3
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.0
-
62 Korriku2 Korriku36
67%
2.0
42+2
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.7
-
7Rilindja 1974Rilindja 197434
33%
1.3
34-1
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
8VjosaVjosa33
33%
1.0
54+1
3.0
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.3
-
9Ramiz SadikuRamiz Sadiku33
0%
1.0
44+0
2.7
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
10KikaKika33
0%
1.0
11+0
0.7
33%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.30.3
-
11FC Besa PejaFC Besa Peja33
33%
1.0
23-1
1.7
33%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.0
-
12Trepça MitrovicëTrepça Mitrovicë33
33%
1.0
48-4
4.0
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.7
-
13Prishtina e RePrishtina e Re33
33%
1.0
26-4
2.7
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.0
-
14IstoguIstogu33
33%
1.0
27-5
3.0
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.3
-
15KF LepenciKF Lepenci32
0%
0.7
24-2
2.0
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.3
-
16MitrovicaMitrovica32
0%
0.7
13-2
1.3
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.31.0
-
17FerizajFerizaj31
0%
0.3
24-2
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.3
-
18Tefik CangaTefik Canga31
0%
0.3
36-3
3.0
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →

← all matches