The match between FC Besa Peja and Vëllaznimi is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 34 % for a home victory, 28 % for a draw and 38 % for a win by Vëllaznimi. The expected total is 2.7 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6 % chance. FC Besa Peja, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.67 conceded. Vëllaznimi, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.64 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.4 %), Under 6.5 (98.1 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.4 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.9 %) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.9 %). FC Besa Peja’s recent form shows a 5-game stretch of LWWWL, coming off a defeat, while Vëllaznimi are on a two-game winning run. The outcome remains uncertain, but the model’s pick points to a Vëllaznimi victory.
Results analysis
The win extends Vëllaznimi’s three-game winning run, while FC Besa Peja’s recent form has slipped after two straight defeats. The final score was 0-1, confirming the away victory that the model had predicted. The pre-match favourite was an away win at 38 percent, and the model’s call was correct. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.4 percent, Under 6.5 hit at 98.1 percent, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 95.8 percent, and Away under 3.5 goals hit at 94.9 percent. The match delivered the favoured result and the selections largely came in.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Besa Peja win✗ Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vëllaznimi win✓ Hit
37.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Besa Peja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.53
1.29
1.00
0.94
2.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.17
1.00
1.67
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (23)
1.17
1.35
1.36
0.82
1.00
1.83
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Vëllaznimi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vëllaznimi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.93
1.73
0.60
1.60
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
1.77
0.92
1.77
0.54
1.77
1.31
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Besa Peja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.7%
Under 2.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.3%
No
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-2
8.5%
0-1 ✓
8.3%
0-0
8.2%
2-1
8.0%
1-0
7.8%
0-2
6.6%
2-0
5.8%
FC Besa Peja goals ↓
Vëllaznimi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
8.3%
6.6%
3.0%
1.0%
1
7.8%
14%
8.5%
3.9%
1.3%
2
5.8%
8.0%
5.5%
2.5%
0.9%
3
2.5%
3.4%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Besa Peja goals (down), columns = Vëllaznimi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
FC Besa Peja is 1.00 points worse than Vëllaznimi in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 2.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
FC Besa Peja is 0.52 goals worse than Vëllaznimi in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
FC Besa Peja is 0.63 goals worse than Vëllaznimi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 0.94).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Besa Peja or Draw✗ Miss
62.3%
Avg Implied -
34%
28%
38%
covers FC Besa Peja + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja or Vëllaznimi✓ Hit
71.5%
Avg Implied -
34%
28%
38%
covers FC Besa Peja + Vëllaznimi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vëllaznimi✓ Hit
66.2%
Avg Implied -
34%
28%
38%
covers Draw + Vëllaznimi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Besa Peja over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
72.5%
Under
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.9%
Under
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vëllaznimi over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.7%
Under
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vëllaznimi over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
39.9%
Under
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vëllaznimi over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vëllaznimi over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Besa Peja, so a minus line means FC Besa Peja give that many goals of a start and Vëllaznimi receive them. At -1, FC Besa Peja must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Besa Peja win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Besa Peja)Actual: Vëllaznimi
FC Besa Peja -2
5.3%
Draw -2
10.1%
Vëllaznimi +2
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Besa Peja)Actual: Vëllaznimi
FC Besa Peja -1
15.4%
Draw -1
18.5%
Vëllaznimi +1
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Besa Peja)Actual: Draw
FC Besa Peja +1
62.3%
Draw +1
19.7%
Vëllaznimi -1
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Besa Peja)Actual: FC Besa Peja
FC Besa Peja +2
82.0%
Draw +2
11.4%
Vëllaznimi -2
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Besa Peja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.64
0.36
0.19
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.52
0.73
0.27
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Vëllaznimi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vëllaznimi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.40
0.33
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.73
0.42
0.46
0.31
1.00
0.54
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Besa Peja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
65.2%
Under 0.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.0%
Under 1.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.7%
Under 2.5
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Besa Peja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.8%
Under
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vëllaznimi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.2%
Under
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vëllaznimi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vëllaznimi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Besa Peja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.79
0.64
0.69
1.06
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.78
0.82
0.55
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Vëllaznimi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vëllaznimi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.47
1.33
0.33
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.25
1.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.92
0.50
1.31
0.31
0.54
0.69
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Besa Peja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.2%
Under 0.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.3%
Under 1.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.4%
Under 2.5
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Besa Peja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
47.8%
Under
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vëllaznimi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
60.7%
Under
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vëllaznimi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vëllaznimi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →