The encounter between FC Botosani and Rapid is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win yet the odds are close: 38 % for Botosani, 29 % for a draw and 33 % for Rapid. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate scoring game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 13.9 % chance. Botosani, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.5 conceded, while Rapid, on the road versus a weaker side, averages 2.2 scored and only 0.4 conceded. The model’s selections include an 84.8 % chance of over 2.5 cards, an 83.6 % chance of over 19.5 fouls, a 74.7 % chance of under 11.5 corners, a 74.6 % chance of under 3.5 goals, a 73.7 % chance of over 1.5 goals, and a 70.9 % chance of over 21.5 fouls. All figures are expressed as percentages and no other outcomes are mentioned.
Results analysis
The match ended 1-1, a draw that surprised the pre-match favourite, FC Botosani, who had a 38 % chance of winning. The model’s call was wrong, as the game finished in a stalemate. Both sides had been coming off wins, with FC Botosani’s recent form noted as “coming off a win” and Rapid likewise. The model’s other selections all hit: Over 2.5 cards at 84.8 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 83.6 %, Under 11.5 corners at 74.7 %, Under 3.5 goals at 74.6 %, Over 1.5 goals at 73.7 %, and Over 21.5 fouls at 70.9 %. The most likely total was 2 goals, with a 27 % probability, but the final tally matched the 1-1 outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Botosani win✗ Miss
38.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rapid win✗ Miss
32.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Botosani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.57
1.29
1.29
0.88
1.81
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.33
2.67
vs Similar (23)
1.04
1.43
1.40
1.20
0.77
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rapid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.23
1.21
1.00
1.25
1.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.55
1.27
1.18
0.82
1.91
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
0.38
1.00
0.33
2.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Botosani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.7%
Under 1.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.0%
Under 2.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.4%
Under 3.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.9%
1-0
9.1%
0-0
9.0%
2-1
8.4%
0-1
8.2%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
5.8%
FC Botosani goals ↓
Rapid goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
8.2%
5.8%
2.4%
0.7%
1
9.1%
14%
7.7%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.9%
8.4%
5.2%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.1%
3.7%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Botosani goals (down), columns = Rapid goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Bucuresti
2.17
Arges Pitesti
2.00
FCSB
1.83
Rapid
1.83
Universitatea Cluj
1.80
Universitatea Craiova
1.67
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.50
Farul Constanta
1.50
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.50
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.20
Oţelul
1.20
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.17
FC Voluntari
0.67
FC Botosani
0.60
Uta Arad
0.50
Csikszereda
0.20
FC Botosani is 1.23 points worse than Rapid in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Universitatea Craiova
2.17
Dinamo Bucuresti
2.17
Farul Constanta
1.67
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.60
FCSB
1.50
Universitatea Cluj
1.40
FC Botosani
1.20
Oţelul
1.20
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.17
Rapid
1.17
FC Voluntari
0.83
Arges Pitesti
0.80
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.67
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
0.50
Uta Arad
0.50
Csikszereda
0.40
FC Botosani is 0.03 goals better than Rapid in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Corvinul Hunedoara
0.50
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
0.50
Rapid
0.50
Arges Pitesti
0.60
Dinamo Bucuresti
0.67
FCSB
0.83
Universitatea Cluj
1.20
Oţelul
1.20
Universitatea Craiova
1.33
Farul Constanta
1.33
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.33
Uta Arad
1.50
FC Botosani
1.60
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.60
Csikszereda
1.80
FC Voluntari
2.67
FC Botosani is 1.10 goals worse than Rapid in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Universitatea Craiova
60%
FCSB
58%
CFR 1907 Cluj
55%
Dinamo Bucuresti
54%
Universitatea Cluj
54%
Oţelul
53%
Rapid
51%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
50%
FC Botosani
49%
Farul Constanta
48%
Uta Arad
48%
Corvinul Hunedoara
46%
Csikszereda
45%
Petrolul Ploiesti
45%
Arges Pitesti
43%
FC Voluntari
40%
FC Botosani is 1.7 percentage points worse than Rapid in terms of average possession (49% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Botosani
For 3.7 · Against 5.1 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 13.9 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rapid
For 6.1 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 11.1 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Botosani
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.0
9.9
4.1
3.8
4.3
26.4
27.2
25.7
vs Stronger (12)
9.8
9.2
10.3
5.2
5.5
4.8
26.8
27.7
26.0
vs Similar (38)
9.4
8.9
9.8
3.7
3.2
4.2
26.2
27.0
25.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
43%
41%
46%
64%
62%
65%
74%
77%
71%
% under line
57%
59%
54%
36%
38%
35%
26%
23%
29%
This opponent (Rapid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rapid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.8
9.8
4.0
4.2
3.8
24.0
24.0
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (35)
10.4
10.2
10.5
4.0
4.1
3.9
23.4
24.0
22.8
vs Weaker (15)
8.5
9.0
7.8
3.9
4.4
3.5
25.5
24.1
27.2
% over line
41%
43%
39%
50%
52%
48%
57%
52%
61%
% under line
59%
57%
61%
50%
48%
52%
43%
48%
39%
This opponent (FC Botosani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FCSB
10.3
Farul Constanta
10.0
Universitatea Cluj
9.9
Rapid
9.8
Petrolul Ploiesti
9.8
Oţelul
9.7
Uta Arad
9.7
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
9.6
FC Botosani
9.5
Dinamo Bucuresti
9.5
Arges Pitesti
9.3
Universitatea Craiova
9.2
Csikszereda
9.0
CFR 1907 Cluj
8.7
FC Voluntari
8.6
Corvinul Hunedoara
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arges Pitesti
5.0
Universitatea Craiova
5.0
FCSB
4.9
FC Botosani
4.8
Corvinul Hunedoara
4.8
Petrolul Ploiesti
4.8
Uta Arad
4.7
FC Voluntari
4.5
Dinamo Bucuresti
4.5
Rapid
4.4
Oţelul
4.4
Csikszereda
4.4
Farul Constanta
4.3
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
4.2
CFR 1907 Cluj
4.0
Universitatea Cluj
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Oţelul
27.1
FC Botosani
26.4
Arges Pitesti
25.7
Corvinul Hunedoara
25.5
Petrolul Ploiesti
25.1
Universitatea Craiova
24.6
FCSB
24.5
Csikszereda
24.5
Uta Arad
24.4
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
24.0
Rapid
23.8
Dinamo Bucuresti
23.7
Farul Constanta
23.5
FC Voluntari
23.5
CFR 1907 Cluj
22.5
Universitatea Cluj
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.4%
Under 9.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
69.1%
Under 3.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
70.9%
Under 21.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Botosani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.57
0.71
0.38
0.75
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.65
0.60
0.50
0.38
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rapid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.43
0.50
0.36
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.55
0.64
0.45
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.12
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Botosani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Botosani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Botosani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Botosani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Botosani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.71
0.57
0.50
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.00
0.50
0.25
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.78
0.80
0.70
0.38
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rapid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.71
0.64
0.69
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.55
1.00
0.64
0.73
0.45
1.27
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Botosani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Botosani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Botosani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Botosani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
C1C (45)
€40m
UC (34)
€37m
FCS (31)
€34m
RAP (24)
€25m
UC (33)
€19m
FB (31)
€12m
UA (30)
€12m
PP (40)
€12m
OŢE (28)
€10m
FC (32)
€10m
CSI (42)
€9m
CH (24)
€7m
SOS (31)
€6m
FV (24)
€6m
FC Botosani's squad is €13m less valuable than Rapid's (€12m vs €25m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
C1C (18)
€18m
UC (13)
€15m
FCS (8)
€14m
RAP (10)
€10m
UC (11)
€8m
FB (11)
€6m
FC (11)
€4m
UA (11)
€4m
OŢE (12)
€4m
PP (13)
€4m
CH (12)
€3m
CSI (16)
€3m
SOS (12)
€2m
FV (11)
€2m
FC Botosani's attack is €5m less valuable than Rapid's (€6m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UC (6)
€9m
FCS (8)
€8m
C1C (7)
€5m
UC (8)
€5m
RAP (6)
€4m
PP (11)
€4m
UA (8)
€3m
CSI (9)
€3m
FB (7)
€2m
FC (7)
€2m
OŢE (4)
€2m
SOS (7)
€1m
CH (2)
€1m
FV (2)
€1m
FC Botosani's midfield is €2m less valuable than Rapid's (€2m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
C1C (20)
€17m
UC (15)
€13m
FCS (15)
€11m
RAP (8)
€10m
UC (14)
€7m
PP (16)
€5m
UA (11)
€5m
OŢE (12)
€4m
FB (13)
€4m
CSI (17)
€4m
FC (14)
€4m
CH (10)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
SOS (12)
€2m
FC Botosani's defence is €6m less valuable than Rapid's (€4m vs €10m).
Romania: Liga I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga I stats & trends →