FC BW Linz are the clear favourites, with a 51% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of a First Vienna win. The match is expected to see 2.4 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.3% probability. Linz’s home form against similar opposition shows an average of 2.57 goals scored and only 0.86 conceded, while First Vienna, playing away, averages 0.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 90.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 83.6%, Over 21.5 fouls at 80.9%, Under 3.5 at 76.9% (hit), Over 8.5 corners at 74.1%, and Over 1.5 at 71.3% (hit). Linz’s recent run of four wins after a defeat and First Vienna’s two-game winning streak set the stage for a likely home victory.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as FC BW Linz secured a 3-0 home win, extending their winning streak after a recent defeat. The pre-match favourite was Home win, with a 51% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The suggested picks also performed well: Under 3.5 goals hit at 76.9% and Over 1.5 goals hit at 71.3%. The match finished 3-0 in favour of the home side, confirming the model’s overall assessment. The win extended FC BW Linz’s run, while First Vienna’s two-game winning run ended with a loss. The final score matched the model’s expectations, with the home side delivering a decisive victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC BW Linz win✓ Hit
50.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
First Vienna win✗ Miss
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC BW Linz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.13
2.57
0.86
2.12
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
2.50
1.14
2.57
0.86
2.43
1.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (First Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
First Vienna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.67
1.62
0.62
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
1.29
0.64
1.62
0.62
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FC BW Linz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.3%
Under 1.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.2%
Under 2.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.1%
Under 3.5
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
12.1%
2-0
10.2%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
5.5%
3-0 ✓
5.2%
FC BW Linz goals ↓
First Vienna goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
6.7%
3.6%
1.1%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.5%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.3%
4.2%
1.3%
0.3%
3
5.2%
4.8%
2.2%
0.7%
0.1%
4
2.0%
1.8%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC BW Linz goals (down), columns = First Vienna goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC BW Linz
2.03
Grazer AK
2.00
SKN ST. Polten
1.87
SV Horn
1.60
SKU Amstetten
1.50
Floridsdorfer AC
1.50
First Vienna
1.43
SV Lafnitz
1.37
FC Liefering
1.23
Admira Wacker
1.20
Dornbirn
1.17
Sturm Graz II
1.13
SV Kapfenberg
1.13
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.07
Rapid Wien II
1.00
Austria Vienna (Am)
0.97
FC BW Linz is 0.60 points better than First Vienna in terms of average points per game (2.03 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC BW Linz
2.10
Grazer AK
1.73
FC Liefering
1.73
SKN ST. Polten
1.70
SKU Amstetten
1.63
SV Lafnitz
1.60
Sturm Graz II
1.43
Dornbirn
1.43
Floridsdorfer AC
1.37
SV Kapfenberg
1.33
Admira Wacker
1.30
SV Horn
1.27
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.20
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.13
First Vienna
1.13
Rapid Wien II
1.10
FC BW Linz is 0.97 goals better than First Vienna in terms of goals scored per game (2.10 vs 1.13).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SKN ST. Polten
0.90
FC BW Linz
0.90
Grazer AK
0.97
Floridsdorfer AC
1.00
First Vienna
1.10
SV Horn
1.10
Admira Wacker
1.40
Dornbirn
1.47
SV Lafnitz
1.53
SKU Amstetten
1.63
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.80
FC Liefering
1.80
Rapid Wien II
1.83
Sturm Graz II
1.87
SV Kapfenberg
1.87
Austria Vienna (Am)
2.03
FC BW Linz is 0.20 goals better than First Vienna in terms of goals conceded per game (0.90 vs 1.10).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Liefering
54%
SKN ST. Polten
53%
FC BW Linz
53%
Floridsdorfer AC
52%
Grazer AK
52%
First Vienna
51%
SV Horn
51%
SV Lafnitz
51%
Austria Vienna (Am)
50%
SKU Amstetten
49%
Rapid Wien II
49%
Admira Wacker
49%
SK Vorwarts Steyr
47%
Dornbirn
47%
SV Kapfenberg
41%
FC BW Linz is 1.5 percentage points better than First Vienna in terms of average possession (53% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC BW Linz
For 5.4 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 11.4 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
First Vienna
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC BW Linz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (15)
10.0
10.3
9.5
0.9
1.1
0.8
25.2
26.0
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
10.0
10.3
9.5
1.0
1.1
0.9
25.2
26.0
24.0
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
80%
100%
50%
13%
29%
0%
60%
67%
50%
% under line
20%
0%
50%
87%
71%
100%
40%
33%
50%
This opponent (First Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
First Vienna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (15)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC BW Linz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dornbirn
13.1
SV Kapfenberg
11.0
SK Vorwarts Steyr
10.6
FC Liefering
10.5
Floridsdorfer AC
10.5
SV Horn
10.3
SKN ST. Polten
10.2
Grazer AK
10.2
FC BW Linz
10.0
Admira Wacker
9.9
SKU Amstetten
9.3
Rapid Wien II
9.2
Austria Vienna (Am)
8.8
SV Lafnitz
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Horn
6.2
Dornbirn
5.0
Floridsdorfer AC
4.8
SV Lafnitz
4.8
Austria Vienna (Am)
4.6
Admira Wacker
4.6
Grazer AK
4.4
SK Vorwarts Steyr
4.4
Rapid Wien II
4.2
SV Kapfenberg
4.2
FC Liefering
4.0
FC BW Linz
3.5
SKN ST. Polten
3.2
SKU Amstetten
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Horn
32.2
Floridsdorfer AC
30.2
Grazer AK
28.4
SV Lafnitz
26.4
SV Kapfenberg
26.2
FC BW Linz
25.2
FC Liefering
24.8
Dornbirn
24.0
SKN ST. Polten
23.6
Admira Wacker
22.9
Austria Vienna (Am)
22.6
SK Vorwarts Steyr
22.0
SKU Amstetten
21.4
Rapid Wien II
21.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
62.7%
Under 9.5
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.2%
Under 3.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
80.9%
Under 21.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC BW Linz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.27
1.14
0.00
0.88
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.29
1.14
0.00
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (First Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
First Vienna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.27
0.75
0.25
0.71
0.29
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.29
0.75
0.25
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (FC BW Linz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC BW Linz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC BW Linz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC BW Linz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC BW Linz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.87
1.43
0.86
1.25
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.43
0.86
1.43
0.86
1.43
0.86
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (First Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
First Vienna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.40
0.88
0.38
0.14
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.36
0.88
0.38
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FC BW Linz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC BW Linz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC BW Linz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC BW Linz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC BW Linz · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ronivaldo27%
Shon Weissman26%
Simon Seidl21%
Nico Maier14%
David Bumberger6%
Dominik Reiter6%
Thomas Goiginger6%
Martin Moormann5%
Christopher Cvetko4%
Mamadou Fofana4%
Alexander Briedl4%
Manuel Maranda0%
Simon Pirkl0%
Paul Mensah0%
Alem Pašić0%
Anderson0%
Fabio Varesi-Strauss0%
Nico Mantl0%
João Luiz0%
Oliver Wahling0%
Cheick Oumar Condé0%
Muharem Husković0%
Isak Dahlqvist0%
David Riegler0%
Jakob Knollmuller0%
Elias Bakatukanda0%
Viktor Baier0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alem Pašić46%
Fabio Varesi-Strauss36%
Martin Moormann26%
Dominik Reiter25%
Manuel Maranda23%
Thomas Goiginger22%
Cheick Oumar Condé20%
Muharem Husković18%
Anderson17%
David Bumberger12%
Christopher Cvetko12%
João Luiz12%
Shon Weissman11%
David Riegler11%
Alexander Briedl11%
Simon Seidl10%
Ronivaldo10%
Nico Maier10%
Isak Dahlqvist9%
Paul Mensah7%
Nico Mantl7%
Elias Bakatukanda7%
Simon Pirkl0%
Mamadou Fofana0%
Oliver Wahling0%
Jakob Knollmuller0%
Viktor Baier0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anderson33%
David Bumberger19%
Simon Pirkl17%
Simon Seidl14%
Thomas Goiginger11%
Isak Dahlqvist9%
Fabio Varesi-Strauss7%
Paul Mensah7%
Dominik Reiter6%
Nico Maier5%
Mamadou Fofana4%
Shon Weissman4%
Alexander Briedl4%
Ronivaldo3%
Manuel Maranda0%
Christopher Cvetko0%
Alem Pašić0%
Nico Mantl0%
João Luiz0%
Martin Moormann0%
Oliver Wahling0%
Cheick Oumar Condé0%
Muharem Husković0%
David Riegler0%
Jakob Knollmuller0%
Elias Bakatukanda0%
Viktor Baier0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Shon Weissman22%
Simon Seidl21%
Ronivaldo20%
Fabio Varesi-Strauss14%
Jakob Knollmuller14%
David Bumberger12%
Paul Mensah7%
Dominik Reiter6%
Thomas Goiginger6%
Nico Maier5%
Alem Pašić4%
Manuel Maranda0%
Simon Pirkl0%
Christopher Cvetko0%
Anderson0%
Nico Mantl0%
João Luiz0%
Martin Moormann0%
Mamadou Fofana0%
Oliver Wahling0%
Cheick Oumar Condé0%
Muharem Husković0%
Isak Dahlqvist0%
Alexander Briedl0%
David Riegler0%
Elias Bakatukanda0%
Viktor Baier0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GA (23)
€9m
FL (17)
€5m
FBL (21)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
AV( (23)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
RWI (24)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
FC BW Linz and First Vienna have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
GA (7)
€2m
RWI (12)
€2m
FBL (9)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
AV( (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
FC BW Linz and First Vienna have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FBL (4)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
AV( (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
RWI (4)
€1m
FC BW Linz and First Vienna have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GA (13)
€6m
AV( (11)
€2m
FBL (8)
€2m
AW (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
SSP (8)
€1m
RWI (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
FC BW Linz and First Vienna have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Grazer AK
SKN ST. Polten
SV Horn
Floridsdorfer AC
SKU Amstetten
SV Lafnitz
FC Liefering
Admira Wacker
Dornbirn
Sturm Graz II
SV Kapfenberg
SK Vorwarts Steyr
Rapid Wien II
Austria Vienna (Am)