The model favours a home win, with a 56% chance of FC Differdange 03 lifting the trophy, 26% for a draw and 18% for F91 Dudelange. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.4% probability. Differdange’s home form shows 1.0 goal scored and 0.83 conceded against similar opposition, while Dudelange’s away record yields 1.58 scored and 1.5 conceded. Recent form tells a story: Differdange are on a four-game winning run, having edged US Hostert 2-0, whereas Dudelange are on a two-game winning streak, beating Wiltz 2-1. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Over 2.5 cards (95.8%), Under 5.5 (95.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.1%), Over 19.5 fouls (93.9%) and Home +2 handicap (93.8%). Each pick carries its own probability, with no overlap to match-result percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Differdange 03 win
56.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange win
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Differdange 03
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.80
2.00
0.71
1.92
0.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.38
1.15
1.00
0.83
1.71
1.43
vs Weaker (17)
2.41
0.53
2.55
0.64
2.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F91 Dudelange
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.27
1.79
1.29
1.44
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.55
1.40
1.50
1.25
1.58
1.50
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
1.00
2.17
1.33
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.3%
Under 1.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.1%
Under 2.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.3%
Under 3.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.2%
No
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-0
11.7%
2-0
11.0%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.6%
3-0
6.3%
3-1
5.5%
0-1
5.4%
FC Differdange 03 goals ↓
F91 Dudelange goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
5.4%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
1
12%
12%
5.0%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.7%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
6.3%
5.5%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.7%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Differdange 03 goals (down), columns = F91 Dudelange goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
UNA Strassen
3.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
3.00
FC Differdange 03
2.40
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.80
Atert Bissen
1.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
US Rumelange
1.20
F91 Dudelange
1.20
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
0.80
Wiltz
0.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.60
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.20
Swift Hesperange
0.00
FC Differdange 03 is 1.20 points better than F91 Dudelange in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.60
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.40
Résidence Walferdange
2.20
US Hostert
2.20
FC Differdange 03
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Wiltz
2.00
UNA Strassen
2.00
US Rumelange
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.40
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.00
Swift Hesperange
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.40
FC Differdange 03 is 1.20 goals better than F91 Dudelange in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UNA Strassen
0.20
Progres Niederkorn
0.80
FC Differdange 03
0.80
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.20
Résidence Walferdange
1.20
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.20
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Wiltz
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.40
US Rumelange
2.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.60
Swift Hesperange
4.20
FC Differdange 03 is 0.80 goals better than F91 Dudelange in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Differdange 03
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
F91 Dudelange
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Differdange 03
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.0
6.0
-
0.2
0.4
0.0
28.5
28.5
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
6.0
6.0
-
0.2
0.4
0.0
26.0
26.0
-
vs Weaker (28)
6.0
6.0
-
0.2
0.4
0.0
31.0
31.0
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
4%
7%
0%
100%
100%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
96%
93%
100%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F91 Dudelange
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
9.0
7.5
0.7
1.0
0.5
24.7
25.0
24.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
9.0
9.0
-
0.8
1.7
0.0
25.0
25.0
-
vs Weaker (18)
7.5
-
7.5
0.7
0.0
1.3
24.5
-
24.5
% over line
0%
0%
0%
8%
12%
4%
67%
100%
50%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
92%
88%
96%
33%
0%
50%
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Differdange 03 or Draw
82.0%
Avg Implied -
56%
26%
18%
covers FC Differdange 03 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 or F91 Dudelange
74.0%
Avg Implied -
56%
26%
18%
covers FC Differdange 03 + F91 Dudelange
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or F91 Dudelange
44.0%
Avg Implied -
56%
26%
18%
covers Draw + F91 Dudelange
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 0.5
Over
82.0%
Under
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 1.5
Over
51.1%
Under
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 2.5
Over
24.7%
Under
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 3.5
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 0.5
Over
58.6%
Under
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 1.5
Over
22.1%
Under
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 2.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Differdange 03, so a minus line means FC Differdange 03 give that many goals of a start and F91 Dudelange receive them. At -1, FC Differdange 03 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Differdange 03 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Differdange 03)
FC Differdange 03 -2
14.2%
Draw -2
17.6%
F91 Dudelange +2
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Differdange 03)
FC Differdange 03 -1
31.9%
Draw -1
24.1%
F91 Dudelange +1
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Differdange 03)
FC Differdange 03 +1
82.0%
Draw +1
11.8%
F91 Dudelange -1
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Differdange 03)
FC Differdange 03 +2
93.8%
Draw +2
4.7%
F91 Dudelange -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Differdange 03
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.27
0.71
0.12
1.15
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.38
0.33
0.00
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
1.12
0.18
0.91
0.18
1.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F91 Dudelange
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.79
0.50
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.55
0.75
0.50
0.58
0.58
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.40
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Differdange 03
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
1.29
0.59
0.77
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.77
0.67
0.83
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
1.29
0.35
1.64
0.45
0.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F91 Dudelange
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.77
1.00
0.79
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.85
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.92
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.60
1.33
0.83
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
FC Differdange 03 and F91 Dudelange have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
FC Differdange 03 and F91 Dudelange have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
FC Differdange 03 and F91 Dudelange have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
FC Differdange 03 and F91 Dudelange have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →
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UNA Strassen
US Mondorf-les-bains
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Résidence Walferdange
UN Kaerjeng 97
Progres Niederkorn
Atert Bissen
US Hostert
US Rumelange
Wiltz
Victoria Rosport
AS Jeunesse Esch
Etzella Ettelbruck
Swift Hesperange