The model sees FC Differdange 03 as the clear favourite, rating a 70% chance of a home win, 19% for a draw and 11% for a R\u00e9sidence Walferdange victory. That high probability comes from Differdange’s strong home form - scoring an average of 2.55 goals and conceding just 0.64 against weaker opponents - while Walferdange, playing away against a stronger side, averages only 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, with the most likely total being three goals at a 22% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 2-0 for the home side, carrying an 11% chance.
The suggested selections reflect the same narrative: Away under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Under 7.5 (98.2%), Home +2 handicap (96.4%), Over 2.5 cards (95.8%), Under 6.5 (95.2%), Over 19.5 fouls (94.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.2%), and Home over 0.5 goals (90.7%). Each probability is given in percentage form, with no additional commentary on edges. The preview remains neutral, focusing on the statistical picture that makes a home win the most likely outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Differdange 03 win
70.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange win
11.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Differdange 03
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.80
2.00
0.71
1.92
0.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.38
1.15
1.00
0.83
1.71
1.43
vs Weaker (17)
2.41
0.53
2.55
0.64
2.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Résidence Walferdange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Résidence Walferdange
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.33
1.00
1.50
2.20
1.20
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.60
0.50
1.50
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (3)
1.67
1.33
1.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
-
-
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
11% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.5%
Under 1.5
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.4%
Under 2.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.2%
Under 3.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.6%
No
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.0%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
8.8%
1-1
8.8%
1-0
8.4%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
5.2%
0-0
4.6%
FC Differdange 03 goals ↓
Résidence Walferdange goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
2.5%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
1
8.4%
8.8%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
2
11%
9.5%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
3
8.8%
7.6%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
4
5.2%
4.6%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Differdange 03 goals (down), columns = Résidence Walferdange goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
UNA Strassen
3.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
3.00
FC Differdange 03
2.40
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.80
Atert Bissen
1.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
US Rumelange
1.20
F91 Dudelange
1.20
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
0.80
Wiltz
0.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.60
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.20
Swift Hesperange
0.00
FC Differdange 03 is 0.60 points better than Résidence Walferdange in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.60
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.40
Résidence Walferdange
2.20
US Hostert
2.20
FC Differdange 03
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Wiltz
2.00
UNA Strassen
2.00
US Rumelange
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.40
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.00
Swift Hesperange
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.40
FC Differdange 03 and Résidence Walferdange are level in goals scored per game (both 2.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UNA Strassen
0.20
Progres Niederkorn
0.80
FC Differdange 03
0.80
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.20
Résidence Walferdange
1.20
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.20
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Wiltz
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.40
US Rumelange
2.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.60
Swift Hesperange
4.20
FC Differdange 03 is 0.40 goals better than Résidence Walferdange in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Differdange 03
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Résidence Walferdange
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Differdange 03
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.0
6.0
-
0.2
0.4
0.0
28.5
28.5
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
6.0
6.0
-
0.2
0.4
0.0
26.0
26.0
-
vs Weaker (26)
6.0
6.0
-
0.2
0.4
0.0
31.0
31.0
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
4%
7%
0%
100%
100%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
96%
93%
100%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Résidence Walferdange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Résidence Walferdange
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
31.3%
Under 9.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
89.1%
Under 3.5
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.8%
Under 21.5
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Differdange 03 or Draw
89.0%
Avg Implied -
70%
19%
11%
covers FC Differdange 03 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 or Résidence Walferdange
81.4%
Avg Implied -
70%
19%
11%
covers FC Differdange 03 + Résidence Walferdange
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Résidence Walferdange
29.6%
Avg Implied -
70%
19%
11%
covers Draw + Résidence Walferdange
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 0.5
Over
90.9%
Under
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 1.5
Over
69.1%
Under
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 2.5
Over
43.0%
Under
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 3.5
Over
22.1%
Under
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 0.5
Over
58.1%
Under
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 1.5
Over
21.6%
Under
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 2.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Differdange 03, so a minus line means FC Differdange 03 give that many goals of a start and Résidence Walferdange receive them. At -1, FC Differdange 03 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Differdange 03 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Differdange 03)
FC Differdange 03 -2
27.7%
Draw -2
20.9%
Résidence Walferdange +2
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Differdange 03)
FC Differdange 03 -1
48.6%
Draw -1
21.8%
Résidence Walferdange +1
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Differdange 03)
FC Differdange 03 +1
89.0%
Draw +1
7.4%
Résidence Walferdange -1
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Differdange 03)
FC Differdange 03 +2
96.4%
Draw +2
2.7%
Résidence Walferdange -2
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Differdange 03
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.27
0.71
0.12
1.15
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.38
0.33
0.00
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
1.12
0.18
0.91
0.18
1.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Résidence Walferdange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Résidence Walferdange
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.78
1.00
0.50
1.25
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.40
0.50
1.50
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Differdange 03
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
1.29
0.59
0.77
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.77
0.67
0.83
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
1.29
0.35
1.64
0.45
0.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Résidence Walferdange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Résidence Walferdange
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
0.33
0.50
0.25
1.20
0.40
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Résidence Walferdange over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
FC Differdange 03's squad is €2m more valuable than Résidence Walferdange's (€2m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
FC Differdange 03 and Résidence Walferdange have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
FC Differdange 03 and Résidence Walferdange have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
FC Differdange 03 and Résidence Walferdange have a similar defence value (both €1m).
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
FD0 wins
0
Draws
0
RW wins
Head-to-head
FC Differdange 03 vs Résidence Walferdange · H/A from FD0
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →
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US Mondorf-les-bains
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
UN Kaerjeng 97
Progres Niederkorn
Atert Bissen
US Hostert
F91 Dudelange
US Rumelange
Wiltz
Victoria Rosport
AS Jeunesse Esch
Etzella Ettelbruck
Swift Hesperange