FC Differdange 03 will face Rodange 91 in a match that the model deems most likely to end in an away win, with a 43% chance of a Rodange victory, 34% for a Differdange win and 23% for a draw. The expected total of 3.8 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 8.9% probability. Differdange, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 3.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, while Rodange, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (96%), Under 6.5 (90.9%), Over 1.5 (90.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.4%), Away over 0.5 goals (86.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (85.5%), Over 2.5 cards (83.3%) and Home over 0.5 goals (83.2%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are given a winning chance.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Rodange 91, did not come through, as the match finished 1-1 for a draw. The model had chosen an away win with a 43% probability, but this call was wrong. The final score was 1-1, confirming the draw. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 96%, Under 6.5 at 90.9%, Over 1.5 at 90.1%, Home under 3.5 goals at 89.4%, Away over 0.5 goals at 86.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 85.5%, and Home over 0.5 goals at 83.2%. FC Differdange 03, on a three-game winning run, and Rodange 91, coming off a defeat, both delivered a low-scoring, evenly matched contest.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Differdange 03 win✗ Miss
34.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rodange 91 win✗ Miss
43.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Differdange 03
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
0.80
2.75
0.94
2.14
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.80
1.07
1.75
1.12
1.86
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
3.13
0.53
3.75
0.75
2.43
0.29
Clean sheet %
50% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodange 91) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodange 91
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.97
1.08
2.23
1.35
1.76
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
3.50
0.00
4.50
2.00
2.50
vs Similar (26)
1.27
1.73
1.27
1.82
1.27
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.1%
Under 1.5
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
73.1%
Under 2.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.7%
Under 3.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
72.9%
No
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
8.9%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
7.2%
2-1
7.2%
1-3
5.4%
2-3
4.9%
0-2
4.5%
3-2
4.3%
FC Differdange 03 goals ↓
Rodange 91 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.0%
3.7%
4.5%
3.0%
1.5%
1
3.2%
8.9%
8.1%
5.4%
2.7%
2
3.6%
7.2%
7.2%
4.9%
2.4%
3
2.1%
4.3%
4.3%
2.9%
1.5%
4
0.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.3%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Differdange 03 goals (down), columns = Rodange 91 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Differdange 03
2.67
F91 Dudelange
2.67
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.40
Wiltz
2.40
Progres Niederkorn
2.25
Yellow Boys Weiler
2.25
UNA Strassen
2.25
The Belval Belvaux
2.25
Union Titus Petange
2.25
Jeunesse Junglinster
2.00
URB
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Minerva Lintgen
2.00
Jeunesse Canach
2.00
Marisca Mersch
2.00
Victoria Rosport
2.00
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
Daring Echternach
1.67
Alisontia Steinsel
1.50
Folschette
1.50
Schifflange
1.50
Lorentzweiler
1.50
Moutfort / Medingen
1.50
Obercorn
1.50
Blô-Weiss Medernach
1.50
Jeunesse Schieren
1.50
Syra Mensdorf
1.50
Sporting Mertzig
1.50
Ehlerange
1.50
Schengen
1.50
Olympia Christnach
1.50
Rodange 91
1.50
Fola Esch
1.50
Mondercange
1.50
Bettembourg
1.50
Résidence Walferdange
1.50
Swift Hesperange
1.50
US Rumelange
1.50
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.50
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.33
ALSS Luxembourg
1.01
Etzella Ettelbruck
1.00
Jeunesse Gilsdorf
0.00
Avenir Beggen
0.00
Atert Bissen
0.00
Kehlen
0.00
Grevenmacher
0.00
Les Aiglons Dalheim
0.00
Sandweiler
0.00
Heiderscheid / Eschdorf
0.00
Feulen
0.00
Koerich
0.00
Noertzange
0.00
Tricolore Gasperich
0.00
Sanem
0.00
Munsbach
0.00
RM Hamm Benfica
0.00
Jeunesse Biwer
0.00
Berdenia Berbourg
0.00
Norden
0.00
Mamer
0.00
Minière Lasauvage
0.00
Koeppchen
0.00
Kopstal 33
0.00
FC Differdange 03 is 1.17 points better than Rodange 91 in terms of average points per game (2.67 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Schengen
4.50
FC Differdange 03
4.33
Progres Niederkorn
4.00
Jeunesse Schieren
4.00
UNA Strassen
4.00
F91 Dudelange
3.50
Union Titus Petange
3.50
Mondercange
3.50
US Rumelange
3.50
US Hostert
3.33
Koerich
3.00
Sporting Mertzig
3.00
The Belval Belvaux
3.00
Ehlerange
3.00
Berdenia Berbourg
3.00
Wiltz
3.00
Yellow Boys Weiler
2.75
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.67
Moutfort / Medingen
2.50
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.40
Jeunesse Junglinster
2.33
URB
2.33
Daring Echternach
2.33
Lorentzweiler
2.00
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.00
Syra Mensdorf
2.00
Tricolore Gasperich
2.00
RM Hamm Benfica
2.00
Jeunesse Biwer
2.00
Fola Esch
2.00
Bettembourg
2.00
Marisca Mersch
2.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.00
Koeppchen
2.00
ALSS Luxembourg
1.93
Jeunesse Canach
1.67
Victoria Rosport
1.67
Alisontia Steinsel
1.50
Schifflange
1.50
Olympia Christnach
1.50
Rodange 91
1.50
Swift Hesperange
1.50
Minerva Lintgen
1.20
Folschette
1.00
Kehlen
1.00
Grevenmacher
1.00
Les Aiglons Dalheim
1.00
Blô-Weiss Medernach
1.00
Feulen
1.00
Noertzange
1.00
Sanem
1.00
Munsbach
1.00
Mamer
1.00
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Kopstal 33
1.00
Obercorn
0.50
Jeunesse Gilsdorf
0.00
Avenir Beggen
0.00
Atert Bissen
0.00
Sandweiler
0.00
Heiderscheid / Eschdorf
0.00
Norden
0.00
Minière Lasauvage
0.00
FC Differdange 03 is 2.83 goals better than Rodange 91 in terms of goals scored per game (4.33 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Differdange 03
0.33
Schifflange
0.50
Obercorn
0.50
US Mondorf-les-bains
0.50
The Belval Belvaux
0.75
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
0.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.00
Atert Bissen
1.00
Norden
1.00
Jeunesse Canach
1.00
Marisca Mersch
1.00
Victoria Rosport
1.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Swift Hesperange
1.00
Minière Lasauvage
1.00
UNA Strassen
1.25
Daring Echternach
1.33
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.33
Minerva Lintgen
1.40
Wiltz
1.40
Alisontia Steinsel
1.50
Jeunesse Schieren
1.50
Rodange 91
1.50
Bettembourg
1.50
US Rumelange
1.50
US Hostert
1.67
Union Titus Petange
1.75
F91 Dudelange
1.83
Avenir Beggen
2.00
Jeunesse Junglinster
2.00
URB
2.00
Grevenmacher
2.00
Lorentzweiler
2.00
Moutfort / Medingen
2.00
Feulen
2.00
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.00
Sanem
2.00
Munsbach
2.00
Fola Esch
2.00
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.00
Kopstal 33
2.00
Yellow Boys Weiler
2.25
Blô-Weiss Medernach
2.50
Syra Mensdorf
2.50
Sporting Mertzig
2.50
ALSS Luxembourg
2.71
Les Aiglons Dalheim
3.00
Heiderscheid / Eschdorf
3.00
Ehlerange
3.00
RM Hamm Benfica
3.00
Jeunesse Biwer
3.00
Schengen
3.00
Olympia Christnach
3.00
Mamer
3.00
Koeppchen
3.00
Folschette
3.50
Mondercange
3.50
Jeunesse Gilsdorf
4.00
Koerich
4.00
Noertzange
4.00
Tricolore Gasperich
4.00
Berdenia Berbourg
4.00
Kehlen
5.00
Sandweiler
5.00
FC Differdange 03 is 1.17 goals better than Rodange 91 in terms of goals conceded per game (0.33 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Differdange 03 or Draw✓ Hit
56.9%
Avg Implied -
34%
23%
43%
covers FC Differdange 03 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 or Rodange 91✗ Miss
77.2%
Avg Implied -
34%
23%
43%
covers FC Differdange 03 + Rodange 91
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rodange 91✓ Hit
65.9%
Avg Implied -
34%
23%
43%
covers Draw + Rodange 91
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.2%
Under
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
53.3%
Under
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
26.6%
Under
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodange 91 over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.7%
Under
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodange 91 over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
59.8%
Under
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodange 91 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodange 91 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Differdange 03, so a minus line means FC Differdange 03 give that many goals of a start and Rodange 91 receive them. At -1, FC Differdange 03 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Differdange 03 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Differdange 03)Actual: Rodange 91
FC Differdange 03 -2
7.6%
Draw -2
10.3%
Rodange 91 +2
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Differdange 03)Actual: Rodange 91
FC Differdange 03 -1
17.9%
Draw -1
16.2%
Rodange 91 +1
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Differdange 03)Actual: FC Differdange 03
FC Differdange 03 +1
56.9%
Draw +1
18.4%
Rodange 91 -1
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Differdange 03)Actual: FC Differdange 03
FC Differdange 03 +2
75.3%
Draw +2
13.1%
Rodange 91 -2
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Differdange 03
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.17
0.75
0.12
0.79
0.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.20
0.25
0.00
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.13
1.25
0.25
0.86
0.00
Clean sheet %
87% (+69pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodange 91) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodange 91
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.54
1.08
0.71
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.00
2.50
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.69
0.64
0.82
0.73
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodange 91 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodange 91 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodange 91 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Differdange 03
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.63
2.00
0.81
1.36
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.33
0.87
1.50
1.12
1.14
0.57
vs Weaker (15)
2.07
0.40
2.50
0.50
1.57
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodange 91) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodange 91
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.20
0.54
1.15
0.65
1.24
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.25
0.00
2.00
1.50
2.50
vs Similar (26)
0.58
1.04
0.64
1.00
0.53
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodange 91 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodange 91 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodange 91 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
89.4%
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-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.2%
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-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
75.3%
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-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
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Luxembourg: National Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →
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Atert Bissen
US Mondorf-les-bains
UNA Strassen
F91 Dudelange
AS Jeunesse Esch
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
UN Kaerjeng 97
US Hostert
Victoria Rosport
Progres Niederkorn
Swift Hesperange
Jeunesse Canach
Mamer
Union Titus Petange
Résidence Walferdange
Wiltz