FC Differdange 03 are the clear favourites to win at home, a verdict the model reaches by weighing the team’s strong home form against Victoria Rosport’s weaker away record. Differdange’s average of 2.83 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded at home, coupled with a recent four-game winning streak, outweighs Rosport’s 1.0 goal average and 2.12 conceded on the road. The prediction assigns a 66% chance to a home win, 22% to a draw and 12% to an away victory, with the model pick firmly the home win. The expected total is 2.8 goals, centring on a 2-goal total at 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, a 12.4% probability. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goal pick at 78.2%. These figures reflect Differdange’s dominance at home and Rosport’s struggles away, making the 2-0 home victory the most probable outcome.
Results analysis
The win extends FC Differdange 03’s four-game winning run, while Victoria Rosport’s form remains unsettled after a draw. The final score was 3-0, confirming a home win. The model had picked a home win with a 66% probability, and that call proved correct. The suggested pick Over 1.5 goals came with a 78.2% probability and hit, as the match produced three goals. No other selections were listed. The model’s predictions were largely accurate, with the favoured result and the single suggested pick both materialising.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Differdange 03 win✓ Hit
65.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport win✗ Miss
12.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Differdange 03
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
3.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.53
0.57
2.00
0.20
3.07
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
2.41
0.35
1.44
0.00
3.50
0.75
vs Weaker (13)
2.69
0.85
2.83
0.50
2.57
1.14
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Victoria Rosport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.33
1.36
1.07
1.38
1.56
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
2.00
1.20
1.80
1.00
2.12
vs Similar (17)
1.59
0.82
1.44
0.67
1.75
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.3%
Under 3.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.4%
1-0
11.2%
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.7%
3-0 ✓
8.5%
0-0
6.9%
3-1
6.6%
4-0
4.3%
FC Differdange 03 goals ↓
Victoria Rosport goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
3.7%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
1
11%
10%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
3
8.5%
6.6%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
4
4.3%
3.4%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Differdange 03 goals (down), columns = Victoria Rosport goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Atert Bissen
3.00
FC Differdange 03
2.60
UNA Strassen
2.00
F91 Dudelange
1.90
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.90
Progres Niederkorn
1.83
Swift Hesperange
1.80
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.77
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.40
Union Titus Petange
1.37
US Hostert
1.27
Victoria Rosport
1.13
Jeunesse Canach
1.00
Wiltz
0.97
Rodange 91
0.97
Bettembourg
0.74
Fola Esch
0.43
Mondercange
0.40
FC Differdange 03 is 1.47 points better than Victoria Rosport in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Differdange 03
2.30
F91 Dudelange
2.23
UNA Strassen
2.07
Swift Hesperange
1.87
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.77
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.67
US Hostert
1.67
Union Titus Petange
1.37
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.37
Rodange 91
1.33
Wiltz
1.23
Jeunesse Canach
1.00
Atert Bissen
1.00
Victoria Rosport
0.97
Bettembourg
0.94
Mondercange
0.70
Fola Esch
0.60
FC Differdange 03 is 1.33 goals better than Victoria Rosport in terms of goals scored per game (2.30 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Atert Bissen
0.00
FC Differdange 03
0.23
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
0.73
UNA Strassen
0.77
Jeunesse Canach
1.00
Progres Niederkorn
1.00
Union Titus Petange
1.07
F91 Dudelange
1.13
Swift Hesperange
1.13
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.30
Victoria Rosport
1.50
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.60
Bettembourg
1.94
Wiltz
2.00
Rodange 91
2.07
US Hostert
2.30
Mondercange
2.47
Fola Esch
2.60
FC Differdange 03 is 1.27 goals better than Victoria Rosport in terms of goals conceded per game (0.23 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Differdange 03
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Victoria Rosport
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Differdange 03
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.5
8.0
7.0
0.3
0.2
0.5
48.0
-
48.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
7.5
8.0
7.0
0.7
0.4
0.9
48.0
-
48.0
vs Weaker (24)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
4%
4%
4%
100%
-
100%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
96%
96%
96%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Victoria Rosport
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Progres Niederkorn
10.8
FC Differdange 03
10.0
F91 Dudelange
9.3
Swift Hesperange
8.6
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.5
Fola Esch
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
8.8
Progres Niederkorn
7.5
Fola Esch
7.0
Swift Hesperange
5.8
F91 Dudelange
5.1
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
48.0
Swift Hesperange
31.5
Progres Niederkorn
29.0
F91 Dudelange
17.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Differdange 03
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.30
0.73
0.07
1.07
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.94
0.24
0.56
0.00
1.38
0.50
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
0.38
1.00
0.17
0.71
0.57
Clean sheet %
77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Victoria Rosport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.47
0.50
0.29
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
0.69
0.20
0.40
0.25
0.88
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.29
0.67
0.22
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Differdange 03
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.27
1.27
0.13
2.00
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.47
0.12
0.89
0.00
2.12
0.25
vs Weaker (13)
1.85
0.46
1.83
0.33
1.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
83% (+57pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Victoria Rosport
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
0.86
0.79
1.00
0.94
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
1.31
1.00
1.40
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.53
0.78
0.44
1.25
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
WIL (2)
€0m
FC Differdange 03 and Victoria Rosport have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
FC Differdange 03 and Victoria Rosport have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
FC Differdange 03 and Victoria Rosport have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
FC Differdange 03 and Victoria Rosport have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →