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FC Dnepr Mogilev vs ML Vitebsk Result & Analysis

Date: 29/10/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 2-1
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Vs
54%
22%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

FC Dnepr Mogilev are poised for a high-scoring outing against ML Vitebsk, with the model projecting an average of 3.5 goals and a 54% chance of a home win. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.6% probability, while the overall most probable total is three goals, at 21%. Dnepr’s recent form shows a draw-heavy run but they have been defensively solid, conceding only 1.93 goals on the road for Vitebsk, who are coming off a win and have an average of 2.57 goals scored away. The match is expected to see both sides contribute to the tally, with Dnepr’s home attack and Vitebsk’s away potency suggesting a balanced contest. The model’s selection, Over 1.5, carries an 87.6% probability. Home win 54%, draw 22%, away win 24%. The suggested pick is Over 1.5 with 87.6%.

Results analysis

The final score of 2-1 for FC Dnepr Mogilev over ML Vitebsk confirmed the model’s prediction of a home win, a result that the Pythia model had assigned a 54% probability to. The win extends Dnepr’s recent run, coming off a draw, while Vitebsk, after a win, showed a solid away form against a weaker opponent. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 87.6% chance, also hit, matching the 3-goal total. All suggested picks were settled: Over 1.5 hit, and the home win prediction was correct. The most likely score of 2-0 was close, but the actual 2-1 outcome still aligned with the model’s overall forecast.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Dnepr Mogilev win✓ Hit
54.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk win✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-550W20W00D40W21W30W20W30W10W50WH·BUM16/08A·VOL20/08H·FC 27/08A·ZHO02/09H·NIV10/09A·LID24/09H·ARS01/10A·LOK07/10H·BAR15/10A·SLO21/10
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.271.002.140.712.381.25
vs Stronger (1)2.005.00--2.005.00
vs Similar (24)1.920.832.000.671.831.00
vs Weaker (5)4.001.003.001.004.671.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-652W42W31W21W12L20W42W04L14L63WA·OST19/08H·MOL27/08A·SHA02/09H·OSI10/09A·ORS16/09H·BUM23/09A·VOL01/10H·FC 07/10A·ZHO14/10H·NIV21/10
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.531.772.501.622.571.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)2.531.772.501.622.571.93
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%09%119%221%319%413%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.6%
Under 1.5
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.4%
Under 2.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.9%
Under 3.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.0%
No
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
2-1 ✓
9.3%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
6.7%
2-2
6.5%
1-2
6.0%
1-0
5.4%
3-0
4.8%
FC Dnepr Mogilev goals ↓
ML Vitebsk goals →
01234
03.8%3.2%2.8%1.3%0.4%
15.4%9.6%6.0%2.8%1.0%
26.8%9.3%6.5%3.0%1.0%
34.8%6.7%4.6%2.1%0.7%
42.6%3.6%2.5%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Dnepr Mogilev goals (down), columns = ML Vitebsk goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.53
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.28
FC Vitebsk
2.28
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.94
ML Vitebsk
1.91
Baranovichi
1.50
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.44
Volna
1.34
Lida
1.28
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.28
Niva
1.28
Ostrovets FC
1.22
Bumprom
1.19
Orsha
0.97
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.69
Slonim
0.69
Osipovichy
0.16
FC Dnepr Mogilev is 0.38 points better than ML Vitebsk in terms of average points per game (2.28 vs 1.91).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.69
ML Vitebsk
2.62
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.34
FC Vitebsk
2.12
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.72
Ostrovets FC
1.69
Niva
1.66
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.59
Orsha
1.56
Baranovichi
1.44
Bumprom
1.41
Lida
1.38
Volna
1.28
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.03
Slonim
0.81
Osipovichy
0.66
FC Dnepr Mogilev is 0.28 goals worse than ML Vitebsk in terms of goals scored per game (2.34 vs 2.62).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.69
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.75
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.25
Lida
1.50
Baranovichi
1.53
Volna
1.53
ML Vitebsk
1.62
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.62
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.75
Orsha
1.94
Ostrovets FC
1.94
Bumprom
1.94
Slonim
1.97
Niva
2.06
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.25
Osipovichy
2.66
FC Dnepr Mogilev is 0.88 goals better than ML Vitebsk in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 1.62).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D00D00D00D10W00D30W00D30WH·BUM16/08A·VOL20/08H·FC 27/08A·ZHO02/09H·NIV10/09A·LID24/09H·ARS01/10A·LOK07/10H·BAR15/10A·SLO21/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.470.860.361.060.56
vs Stronger (1)2.002.00--2.002.00
vs Similar (24)0.540.380.580.330.500.42
vs Weaker (5)2.800.602.500.503.000.67
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W21W00D20W10W20W12L01L14L20WA·OST19/08H·MOL27/08A·SHA02/09H·OSI10/09A·ORS16/09H·BUM23/09A·VOL01/10H·FC 07/10A·ZHO14/10H·NIV21/10
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.901.060.621.071.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)1.070.901.060.621.071.21
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W20W00D40W21W20W20W00D10W20WH·BUM16/08A·VOL20/08H·FC 27/08A·ZHO02/09H·NIV10/09A·LID24/09H·ARS01/10A·LOK07/10H·BAR15/10A·SLO21/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.531.290.361.310.69
vs Stronger (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
vs Similar (24)1.380.461.420.331.330.58
vs Weaker (5)1.200.400.500.501.670.33
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D21W31W01L02L00D30W03L00D43WA·OST19/08H·MOL27/08A·SHA02/09H·OSI10/09A·ORS16/09H·BUM23/09A·VOL01/10H·FC 07/10A·ZHO14/10H·NIV21/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.470.871.441.001.500.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)1.470.871.441.001.500.71
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
FC Dnepr Mogilev's squad is €10m less valuable than ML Vitebsk's (€3m vs €14m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
FV (13)
€2m
FDM (9)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
FC Dnepr Mogilev's attack is €4m less valuable than ML Vitebsk's (€1m vs €6m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
FDM (6)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
FC Dnepr Mogilev's midfield is €2m less valuable than ML Vitebsk's (€1m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
FC Dnepr Mogilev's defence is €4m less valuable than ML Vitebsk's (€1m vs €5m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
FDM wins
0
Draws
1
MV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Dnepr Mogilev vs ML Vitebsk · H/A from FDM
DateH/AGameScore
25/06/23AML Vitebsk Vs FDM5-2

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/10/23ASlonim Vs FDM0-5
15/10/23HFDM Vs Baranovichi1-0
07/10/23ALokomotiv Gomel Vs FDM0-3
01/10/23HFDM Vs Arsenal (Belarus)2-0
24/09/23ALida Vs FDM0-3
10/09/23HFDM Vs Niva2-1
02/09/23AZhodino Yuzhnoe Vs FDM0-4
27/08/23HFDM Vs FC Vitebsk0-0
20/08/23AVolna Vs FDM0-2
16/08/23HFDM Vs Bumprom5-0

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/10/23HMV Vs Niva6-3
14/10/23AZhodino Yuzhnoe Vs MV4-1
07/10/23HMV Vs FC Vitebsk0-4
01/10/23AVolna Vs MV2-4
23/09/23HMV Vs Bumprom2-0
16/09/23AOrsha Vs MV2-1
10/09/23HMV Vs Osipovichy2-1
02/09/23AShakhtyor Petrikov Vs MV1-3
27/08/23HMV Vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 44-2
19/08/23AOstrovets FC Vs MV2-5

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.42
HomeWDWWW1.56
AwayWWWWW1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%48%36%
AVG goals3.363.363.36
Over 1.5 %82%84%80%
Over 2.5 %60%64%56%
Over 3.5 %44%44%44%
Scored1.741.721.76
Conceded1.621.641.60
BTTS44%52%36%
Clean Sheet28%24%32%
Corners---
Cards---
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLW1.78
HomeWWWLW1.96
AwayWWLWL1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%58%50%
AVG goals4.004.004.00
Over 1.5 %88%92%83%
Over 2.5 %78%73%83%
Over 3.5 %68%69%67%
Scored2.362.382.33
Conceded1.641.621.67
BTTS66%65%67%
Clean Sheet20%15%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Arsenal (Belarus)Arsenal (Belarus)3281
81%
2.5
8630+56
3.6
84%
69%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.70.9
-
2FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev3273
69%
2.3
7524+51
3.1
75%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.8
-
3FC VitebskFC Vitebsk3273
72%
2.3
6822+46
2.8
72%
66%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2012.10.7
-
4Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel3262
59%
1.9
5540+15
3.0
88%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.2
-
5ML VitebskML Vitebsk3261
59%
1.9
8452+32
4.2
94%
81%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6352.61.6
-
6BaranovichiBaranovichi3248
44%
1.5
4649-3
3.0
81%
53%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.5
-
7Zhodino YuzhnoeZhodino Yuzhnoe3246
41%
1.4
6252+10
3.6
88%
72%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
8VolnaVolna3243
38%
1.3
4149-8
2.8
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.5
-
9LidaLida3241
38%
1.3
4448-4
2.9
72%
62%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.5
-
10Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 43241
34%
1.3
5156-5
3.3
88%
72%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.8
-
11NivaNiva3241
38%
1.3
5366-13
3.7
88%
69%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.72.1
-
12Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC3239
31%
1.2
5462-8
3.6
84%
69%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.71.9
-
13BumpromBumprom3238
31%
1.2
4562-17
3.3
88%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.9
-
14OrshaOrsha3231
25%
1.0
5062-12
3.5
88%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.9
-
15SlonimSlonim3222
16%
0.7
2663-37
2.8
62%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.0
-
16Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov3222
19%
0.7
3372-39
3.3
81%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
17OsipovichyOsipovichy325
3%
0.2
2185-64
3.3
84%
62%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.7
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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