FC Fredericia face Odense in a match that the model deems most likely to end in an away win. The odds lean heavily toward the visitors, with a 55% chance of victory, 24% for a draw and 20% for a home win. The expected goal total sits at 2.9, suggesting a fairly open game, but the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.6% probability. FC Fredericia, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. Odense, on the road, has a stronger attack, averaging 2.12 goals scored, while conceding 1.38 against similar teams. The model’s selection includes an 80.4% chance of Over 1.5 goals, a single edge pick with no further edge percentage provided. The final outcome of the previous match was a 1-0 home win for Fredericia, while Odense’s last outing ended in a 1-1 draw.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Odense, failed to deliver, as FC Fredericia snatched a 1-0 home win, extending their recent run of two straight defeats into a win that surprised everyone. The model had picked an away victory with a 55% probability, but that call was wrong. Its other selection, Over 1.5 goals, had an 80.4% chance yet missed, as only one goal was scored. The final score of 1-0 confirmed the home side’s triumph, contradicting the model’s expectations. With the favourite wrong and the over goal selection also off, the predictions fell short of the match’s outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Fredericia win✓ Hit
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Odense win✗ Miss
55.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Fredericia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.17
1.43
1.57
2.69
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.59
1.09
1.09
1.45
2.09
0.73
vs Weaker (8)
3.50
1.38
2.67
2.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Odense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Odense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.07
1.73
1.13
2.13
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.88
1.06
1.67
0.78
2.12
1.38
vs Weaker (13)
2.00
1.08
1.83
1.67
2.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Fredericia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.5%
Under 2.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.1%
Under 3.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.7%
No
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.3%
0-1
8.8%
0-0
6.3%
1-3
6.2%
0-3
5.8%
2-1
5.6%
FC Fredericia goals ↓
Odense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
8.8%
9.3%
5.8%
2.7%
1
4.5%
12%
9.9%
6.2%
2.9%
2
3.0%
5.6%
5.3%
3.3%
1.6%
3
1.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.2%
0.6%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Fredericia goals (down), columns = Odense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Odense
2.03
FC Fredericia
2.00
Hillerød
1.62
AC Horsens
1.59
Kolding IF
1.56
Hvidovre
1.41
Esbjerg
1.28
Hobro
1.22
B 93
1.09
HB Koge
1.06
Vendsyssel FF
0.94
Roskilde
0.81
FC Fredericia is 0.03 points worse than Odense in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Odense
2.16
FC Fredericia
2.03
Hillerød
1.75
Esbjerg
1.62
AC Horsens
1.53
B 93
1.31
Hobro
1.22
Roskilde
1.16
Kolding IF
1.12
HB Koge
1.12
Vendsyssel FF
1.09
Hvidovre
1.03
FC Fredericia is 0.12 goals worse than Odense in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 2.16).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kolding IF
0.88
FC Fredericia
0.94
Hvidovre
1.09
Odense
1.09
Hillerød
1.19
AC Horsens
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.53
Hobro
1.59
Esbjerg
1.75
HB Koge
1.78
B 93
1.91
Roskilde
1.91
FC Fredericia is 0.16 goals better than Odense in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Fredericia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.47
0.93
0.50
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.41
0.64
0.36
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.62
2.00
1.00
1.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Odense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Odense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.47
1.00
0.60
1.13
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.47
1.00
0.44
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (13)
1.15
0.46
1.00
0.83
1.29
0.14
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Fredericia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Fredericia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Fredericia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.70
0.50
1.07
1.69
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.68
0.45
1.09
1.45
0.27
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.75
0.67
1.00
2.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Odense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Odense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
0.73
0.53
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.59
0.67
0.33
1.12
0.88
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
0.62
0.83
0.83
0.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Fredericia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Fredericia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Fredericia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Friday Etim29%
Oscar Buch27%
Sofus Johannesen27%
Jonatan Lindekilde24%
Agon Mucolli19%
Gustav Marcussen14%
Felix Winther11%
Svenn Crone10%
Patrick Egelund7%
Anders Dahl6%
Emilio Simonsen5%
William Madsen5%
Eskild Dall4%
Jeppe Kudsk4%
Jakob Jessen3%
Moses Opondo0%
Andreas Pyndt0%
Kristian Pedersen0%
Mattias Lamhauge0%
Valdemar Birksø0%
Etienne Green0%
Frederik Rieper0%
Daniel Kristjansson0%
Elias Hansborg0%
Daniel Haarbo0%
Martin Huldahl0%
Malthe Ladefoged0%
Adam Nygaard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel Haarbo33%
Jeppe Kudsk26%
Emilio Simonsen25%
Friday Etim21%
Svenn Crone20%
Felix Winther19%
Moses Opondo12%
Oscar Buch9%
Eskild Dall9%
Andreas Pyndt7%
Adam Nygaard7%
Agon Mucolli6%
Daniel Kristjansson6%
Jakob Jessen6%
William Madsen5%
Sofus Johannesen5%
Gustav Marcussen3%
Frederik Rieper3%
Patrick Egelund0%
Kristian Pedersen0%
Mattias Lamhauge0%
Valdemar Birksø0%
Etienne Green0%
Anders Dahl0%
Elias Hansborg0%
Martin Huldahl0%
Jonatan Lindekilde0%
Malthe Ladefoged0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniel Kristjansson19%
Emilio Simonsen15%
Jakob Jessen12%
Jonatan Lindekilde12%
Andreas Pyndt11%
Sofus Johannesen9%
Eskild Dall9%
Felix Winther7%
Friday Etim7%
Gustav Marcussen7%
Patrick Egelund7%
Agon Mucolli6%
Moses Opondo6%
Anders Dahl6%
William Madsen5%
Oscar Buch5%
Adam Nygaard4%
Svenn Crone0%
Kristian Pedersen0%
Mattias Lamhauge0%
Valdemar Birksø0%
Etienne Green0%
Frederik Rieper0%
Elias Hansborg0%
Daniel Haarbo0%
Jeppe Kudsk0%
Martin Huldahl0%
Malthe Ladefoged0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Friday Etim43%
Oscar Buch23%
Sofus Johannesen23%
Jonatan Lindekilde18%
Agon Mucolli12%
Emilio Simonsen10%
Felix Winther4%
Moses Opondo0%
Patrick Egelund0%
Andreas Pyndt0%
Svenn Crone0%
Gustav Marcussen0%
Kristian Pedersen0%
Mattias Lamhauge0%
Valdemar Birksø0%
Etienne Green0%
Anders Dahl0%
Eskild Dall0%
William Madsen0%
Frederik Rieper0%
Daniel Kristjansson0%
Elias Hansborg0%
Daniel Haarbo0%
Jeppe Kudsk0%
Martin Huldahl0%
Jakob Jessen0%
Malthe Ladefoged0%
Adam Nygaard0%
Odense · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fiete Arp25%
Jacob Bonde17%
Noah Ganaus17%
Rasmus Falk0%
Ulrik Jenssen0%
Peter Therkildsen0%
Adam Sørensen0%
Viljar Myhra0%
Topi Keskinen0%
James Gomez0%
Ismahila Ouédraogo0%
Marcus McCoy0%
Julius Berthel Askou0%
Magnus Andersen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
James Gomez50%
Julius Berthel Askou40%
Ulrik Jenssen33%
Marcus McCoy33%
Rasmus Falk20%
Peter Therkildsen17%
Topi Keskinen17%
Ismahila Ouédraogo17%
Jacob Bonde0%
Adam Sørensen0%
Fiete Arp0%
Viljar Myhra0%
Noah Ganaus0%
Magnus Andersen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rasmus Falk0%
Ulrik Jenssen0%
Jacob Bonde0%
Peter Therkildsen0%
Adam Sørensen0%
Fiete Arp0%
Viljar Myhra0%
Topi Keskinen0%
James Gomez0%
Noah Ganaus0%
Ismahila Ouédraogo0%
Marcus McCoy0%
Julius Berthel Askou0%
Magnus Andersen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Noah Ganaus33%
Fiete Arp25%
Topi Keskinen17%
Rasmus Falk0%
Ulrik Jenssen0%
Jacob Bonde0%
Peter Therkildsen0%
Adam Sørensen0%
Viljar Myhra0%
James Gomez0%
Ismahila Ouédraogo0%
Marcus McCoy0%
Julius Berthel Askou0%
Magnus Andersen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ODE (24)
€17m
AH (27)
€10m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
VF (3)
€1m
FC Fredericia's squad is €9m less valuable than Odense's (€8m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ODE (9)
€8m
AH (9)
€4m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
FC Fredericia's attack is €6m less valuable than Odense's (€2m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
ODE (6)
€3m
AH (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
FC Fredericia and Odense have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ODE (9)
€7m
AH (12)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
VF (0)
€0m
FC Fredericia's defence is €3m less valuable than Odense's (€3m vs €7m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hillerød
AC Horsens
Kolding IF
Hvidovre
Esbjerg
Hobro
B 93
HB Koge
Vendsyssel FF
Roskilde