Pythia gives FC Fredericia a 26% win probability against Silkeborg in the Denmark: Superliga on 2026-05-17, with 22% for the draw and 52% for Silkeborg. The model estimates around 3.7 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (21%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (9.0%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 5.5 cards (91%), Over 1.5 (89%), Under 4.5 cards (80%), Under 25.5 fouls (80%).
Results analysis
FC Fredericia finished 4-1 against Silkeborg (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 26% home win, 22% draw and 52% away win. Picks that landed: Under 5.5 cards (91%), Over 1.5 (89%), Under 4.5 cards (80%), Under 25.5 fouls (80%), Over 2.5 (72%), Over 8.5 corners (71%), BTTS Yes (70%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Fredericia win✓ Hit
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Silkeborg win✗ Miss
51.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Fredericia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
2.13
1.00
2.07
1.56
2.19
vs Stronger (9)
1.44
2.67
0.75
2.75
2.00
2.60
vs Similar (21)
1.24
1.90
1.10
1.80
1.36
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Silkeborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Silkeborg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
2.00
1.12
1.56
1.71
2.50
vs Stronger (13)
1.15
3.08
1.00
2.29
1.33
4.00
vs Similar (17)
1.59
1.18
1.22
1.00
2.00
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Fredericia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.3%
Under 1.5
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
71.6%
Under 2.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.8%
Under 3.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
70.3%
No
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.0%
1-2
8.9%
2-2
6.8%
1-3
6.5%
2-1
6.2%
0-2
5.8%
2-3
5.0%
0-1
4.5%
FC Fredericia goals ↓
Silkeborg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
4.5%
5.8%
4.2%
2.3%
1
2.9%
9.0%
8.9%
6.5%
3.5%
2
2.9%
6.2%
6.8%
5.0%
2.7%
3
1.5%
3.2%
3.5%
2.5%
1.4%
4
0.6%
1.2%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Fredericia goals (down), columns = Silkeborg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Aarhus
2.09
FC Midtjylland
1.88
FC Copenhagen
1.64
FC Nordsjaelland
1.56
Viborg
1.38
Sonderjyske
1.38
Brondby
1.36
Odense
1.28
Silkeborg
1.12
Randers FC
1.09
FC Fredericia
1.06
Vejle
0.75
FC Fredericia is 0.06 points worse than Silkeborg in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Midtjylland
2.25
FC Copenhagen
2.12
Aarhus
1.94
FC Nordsjaelland
1.59
Odense
1.59
Viborg
1.53
FC Fredericia
1.41
Sonderjyske
1.38
Brondby
1.36
Silkeborg
1.28
Vejle
1.12
Randers FC
1.03
FC Fredericia is 0.12 goals better than Silkeborg in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Aarhus
1.00
FC Midtjylland
1.12
Brondby
1.15
FC Copenhagen
1.36
FC Nordsjaelland
1.44
Randers FC
1.47
Sonderjyske
1.53
Viborg
1.59
Odense
1.88
Vejle
1.88
Silkeborg
2.09
FC Fredericia
2.12
FC Fredericia is 0.03 goals worse than Silkeborg in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 2.09).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Nordsjaelland
57%
FC Copenhagen
55%
FC Midtjylland
54%
Aarhus
54%
Odense
51%
Brondby
51%
Silkeborg
49%
Randers FC
48%
Viborg
48%
Vejle
45%
FC Fredericia
44%
Sonderjyske
44%
FC Fredericia is 4.8 percentage points worse than Silkeborg in terms of average possession (44% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Fredericia
For 5.9 · Against 5.4 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.3 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Silkeborg
For 3.5 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.3 · Against 9.8 · Total 17.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Fredericia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.6
11.7
11.6
1.6
1.8
1.5
21.0
22.2
19.9
vs Stronger (10)
10.7
11.0
10.4
2.7
2.8
2.6
21.5
22.0
21.0
vs Similar (36)
12.0
12.0
12.1
1.5
1.7
1.4
20.8
22.3
19.4
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
71%
73%
69%
18%
21%
15%
32%
40%
25%
% under line
29%
27%
31%
82%
79%
85%
68%
60%
75%
This opponent (Silkeborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Silkeborg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.4
9.4
2.9
3.0
2.7
19.0
18.8
19.2
vs Stronger (15)
8.9
9.9
8.1
2.9
2.4
3.2
17.5
18.1
17.0
vs Similar (35)
9.6
9.2
10.0
2.9
3.3
2.5
19.6
19.0
20.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
46%
50%
36%
42%
31%
30%
29%
31%
% under line
52%
54%
50%
64%
58%
69%
70%
71%
69%
This opponent (FC Fredericia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Fredericia
11.6
Odense
10.5
FC Midtjylland
10.2
Vejle
10.2
Viborg
10.0
Sonderjyske
9.8
Randers FC
9.6
Brondby
9.6
Silkeborg
9.4
FC Copenhagen
9.3
Aarhus
9.2
FC Nordsjaelland
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Brondby
4.5
FC Midtjylland
4.3
Aarhus
3.9
Sonderjyske
3.8
Viborg
3.8
FC Copenhagen
3.8
FC Nordsjaelland
3.6
Randers FC
3.5
Odense
3.3
Vejle
3.3
Silkeborg
2.9
FC Fredericia
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Midtjylland
26.2
Viborg
24.1
FC Copenhagen
23.3
Aarhus
23.1
Brondby
23.0
Sonderjyske
22.0
Randers FC
22.0
Odense
21.9
FC Nordsjaelland
21.4
FC Fredericia
21.0
Vejle
21.0
Silkeborg
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.7%
Under 9.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.5%
Under 3.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
50.2%
Under 21.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Fredericia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.00
0.50
0.93
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.22
0.50
1.25
1.00
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.90
0.50
0.80
0.82
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Silkeborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Silkeborg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.03
0.62
0.69
0.93
1.43
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.77
0.71
1.14
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.47
0.56
0.33
1.25
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Fredericia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Fredericia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Silkeborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Silkeborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Silkeborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (28)
€120m
FC (26)
€115m
FN (34)
€80m
BRO (30)
€54m
AAR (29)
€37m
VIB (27)
€30m
RF (32)
€27m
SIL (29)
€26m
SON (29)
€20m
ODE (25)
€18m
VEJ (31)
€15m
FF (32)
€13m
FC Fredericia's squad is €14m less valuable than Silkeborg's (€13m vs €26m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (10)
€62m
FN (12)
€31m
FC (8)
€23m
BRO (11)
€18m
RF (15)
€16m
AAR (10)
€13m
SIL (9)
€9m
SON (8)
€9m
VIB (8)
€8m
VEJ (11)
€7m
ODE (6)
€5m
FF (10)
€3m
FC Fredericia's attack is €6m less valuable than Silkeborg's (€3m vs €9m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FC (6)
€59m
FM (7)
€27m
FN (8)
€18m
AAR (9)
€14m
BRO (5)
€11m
SIL (8)
€10m
VIB (7)
€9m
SON (8)
€5m
ODE (8)
€4m
RF (6)
€4m
VEJ (8)
€3m
FF (6)
€3m
FC Fredericia's midfield is €7m less valuable than Silkeborg's (€3m vs €10m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FC (12)
€33m
FM (11)
€32m
FN (14)
€30m
BRO (14)
€25m
VIB (12)
€13m
AAR (10)
€10m
ODE (11)
€8m
SIL (12)
€8m
RF (11)
€7m
FF (16)
€6m
SON (13)
€6m
VEJ (12)
€5m
FC Fredericia's defence is €1m less valuable than Silkeborg's (€6m vs €8m).
Denmark: Superliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Aarhus
FC Midtjylland
FC Copenhagen
FC Nordsjaelland
Brondby
Viborg
Sonderjyske
Odense
Randers FC
Vejle