PythiaFootballBETA
FC Krasnodar is the clear favourite to win against Fakel, with a 72% chance of securing a home win, according to the Pythia prediction model. This is largely due to Fakel's struggles on the road, where they have averaged just 0.25 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against stronger opponents.
The model expects a relatively high-scoring match with an average of 3 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0 in favour of FC Krasnodar, with a 12.8% probability. FC Krasnodar has been in excellent form at home, scoring 2.58 goals on average and conceding just 0.67.
The model's selection for the match result is a home win, and it also suggests taking Over 1.5 goals, with a 81.6% probability, and Over 3.5 cards, with a 76.5% probability. Additionally, the model suggests selecting Over 21.5 fouls, with an 86% probability. The probabilities for home win, draw, and away win are 72%, 18%, and 9% respectively.
FC Krasnodar's win extends their 4-game winning run, a feat that has seen them dominate their recent opponents. The final score was 3-2, a result that confirms the actual outcome, home win. The model's selection, home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 72%. This was the favourite, as predicted by the Pythia model. The model's call on the home win was spot on. The model's selection of over 1.5 goals hit, as did over 3.5 cards, both selections coming in with a probability of 81.6% and 76.5% respectively. However, over 21.5 fouls was the model's selection that missed, with a probability of 86%. The most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 23%.
FC Krasnodar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.97 | 0.73 | 2.53 | 0.47 | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.80 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 2.39 | 0.56 | 2.90 | 0.40 | 1.75 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
Fakel| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 0.80 | 1.41 | 0.76 | 1.31 | 0.85 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 1.37 | 0.80 | 1.41 | 0.76 | 1.31 | 0.85 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
| Fakel goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 13% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 9.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
FC KrasnodarFakelFC Krasnodar| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.4 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 29.9 | 30.1 | 29.6 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 8.5 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 30.6 | 30.8 | 30.3 |
| vs Weaker (31) | 8.4 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 29.5 | 29.8 | 29.3 |
| % over line | 30% | 39% | 21% | 68% | 75% | 62% | 95% | 100% | 89% |
| % under line | 70% | 61% | 79% | 32% | 25% | 38% | 5% | 0% | 11% |
Fakel| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 28.9 | 31.1 | 26.3 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 10.8 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 28.7 | 31.2 | 23.5 |
| vs Similar (44) | 8.1 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 29.1 | 31.0 | 27.8 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 53% | 50% | 57% | 46% | 42% | 50% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 47% | 50% | 43% | 54% | 58% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
FC Krasnodar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.27 | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.58 | 0.42 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 0.94 | 0.39 | 1.20 | 0.30 | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
Fakel| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.41 | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 0.60 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.41 | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
FC Krasnodar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 0.33 | 1.53 | 0.20 | 0.80 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.75 | 0.58 | 1.20 | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 1.44 | 0.17 | 1.70 | 0.10 | 1.12 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 77% (+50pp vs league) | |||||
Fakel| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.33 | 0.88 | 0.35 | 0.62 | 0.31 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 0.77 | 0.33 | 0.88 | 0.35 | 0.62 | 0.31 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 77% (+50pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 96.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 91.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 cards | 87.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 83.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 81.6% | 1.24 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | +6.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 78.7% | 1.17 | 1.27 | 1.14 | 1.11 | - | - | +0.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Home win | 72.5% | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.32 | +0.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 25.5 fouls | 71.9% | 1.36 | 1.36 | - | - | - | - | +5.4% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/25 | H | 5-0 | |
| 04/08/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 25/08/23 | A | 0-0 | |
| 05/11/22 | A | 3-3 | |
| 17/07/22 | H | 2-2 |
FC Krasnodar| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 24/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 11/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 07/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 23/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-1 |
Fakel| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 08/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 27/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 13/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 01/04/26 | A | 0-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Krasnodar | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 8.4 | 40% | 4.2 | 80% | 23.8 | 60% | 125 | 64 | 20 | 41 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 57% |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 100% | 80% | 0% | 11.2 | 60% | 5.8 | 80% | 28.6 | 100% | 119 | 58 | 29 | 32 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 60% |
| 3 |  CSKA Moscow | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 7.2 | 20% | 3.4 | 20% | 25.8 | 80% | 137 | 41 | 52 | 44 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 57% |
| 4 |  Zenit | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 3.2 | 100% | 80% | 20% | 10.2 | 40% | 5.2 | 80% | 26.8 | 60% | 204 | 109 | 44 | 51 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 57% |
| 5 |  Dinamo Makhachkala | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | 10.0 | 80% | 4.0 | 40% | 23.8 | 60% | 23 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 39% |
| 6 |  Baltika | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 100% | 60% | 0% | 9.2 | 40% | 2.6 | 20% | 25.6 | 80% | 36 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 37% |
| 7 |  Dynamo | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 40% | 7.8 | 20% | 4.5 | 75% | 27.4 | 100% | 111 | 46 | 23 | 41 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 65% |
| 8 |  Rubin | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 2.6 | 100% | 40% | 20% | 7.8 | 20% | 3.0 | 20% | 24.6 | 60% | 53 | 18 | 13 | 22 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 45% |
| 9 |  FC Orenburg | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 80% | 40% | 0% | 8.8 | 40% | 4.8 | 60% | 29.0 | 100% | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 41% |
| 10 |  Akhmat | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 7.8 | 20% | 3.4 | 40% | 25.2 | 80% | 32 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 43% |
| 11 |  FC Rostov | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 7.2 | 20% | 4.2 | 20% | 26.8 | 80% | 37 | 17 | 3 | 17 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 50% |
| 12 |  Krylia Sovetov | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 8.6 | 20% | 4.8 | 50% | 27.4 | 80% | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 13 |  Rodina Moskva | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | 10.8 | 60% | 3.0 | 20% | 26.6 | 80% | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 39% |
| 14 |  Lokomotiv | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 7.8 | 20% | 3.4 | 20% | 27.4 | 80% | 111 | 53 | 18 | 41 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 15 | Fakel | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1.8 | 40% | 40% | 20% | 10.2 | 80% | 3.6 | 60% | 25.6 | 80% | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 16 |  Akron | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 3.4 | 80% | 80% | 40% | 8.6 | 20% | 4.4 | 60% | 25.6 | 60% | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 57% |