FC Lugano is the clear favourite to win this match, thanks in part to the home advantage and FC Zurich's struggles on the road. The model rates them highly, with a 64% chance of a home win. FC Lugano's recent form has been impressive, with a 4-game winning streak, including a 2-0 win over NSI Runavik.
The model predicts a 22% chance of a draw and a 14% chance of an away win for FC Zurich. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, which has a probability of 10.4%.
At home, FC Lugano has an average of 2.33 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded against weaker opponents. In contrast, FC Zurich averages 0.6 goals scored and 2.8 goals conceded on the road against stronger opponents.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls (81.2%), Over 1.5 (80.9%), and no edge is mentioned for the latter. The home win percentage is 64%, the draw percentage is 22%, and the away win percentage is 14%.
Results analysis
The win extends FC Lugano's 5-game winning run, with a 5-0 thrashing of FC Zurich. The final scoreline was a comprehensive one, with the home side emerging victorious. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 61%. The model's call was vindicated, as the favoured result landed. The model's selection of over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 81.5%, while the selection of over 21.5 fouls also came in, with a probability of 81.2%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Lugano winâś“ Hit
61.1%
Avg Implied 61.5% · @ 1.51
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.54
Dafabet
1.54
1xBet
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Drawâś— Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied 21.5% · @ 4.32
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.59
Dafabet
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.33
FC Zurich winâś— Miss
16.3%
Avg Implied 17.0% · @ 5.46
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Pinnacle
5.65
Marathonbet
5.60
Dafabet
5.60
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Lugano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.90
2.00
1.07
1.40
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.61
0.91
1.83
1.17
1.36
0.64
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
0.86
2.67
0.67
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Zurich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Zurich
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.87
1.47
1.67
1.00
2.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.20
1.84
1.31
1.77
1.08
1.92
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.33
2.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.5%
@ 1.16+0.9%
Under 1.5
18.5%
@ 4.81-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Under
Pinnacle
5.15
BetVictor
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.4%
@ 1.53-2.3%
Under 2.5
41.6%
@ 2.37+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.49
10Bet
2.45
Betfair
2.45
Betano
2.42
Bet365
2.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.0%
@ 2.33-4.3%
Under 3.5
64.0%
@ 1.57+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Pinnacle
2.38
Superbet
2.37
10Bet
2.35
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
Bet365
1.57
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.4%
@ 1.61-1.9%
No
44.6%
@ 2.17+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.65
Unibet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
No
Betfair
2.30
888Sport
2.20
Bet365
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Betano
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%@ 7.97+5.0%
2-0
10.1%@ 8.15+4.6%
2-1
10.0%@ 7.49+4.0%
1-0
8.9%@ 8.39+3.6%
3-0
6.9%@ 11.05+2.9%
3-1
6.8%@ 10.28+2.4%
0-0
5.8%@ 14.71+2.7%
2-2
4.9%@ 13.21+1.5%
FC Lugano goals ↓
FC Zurich goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
3.8%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
1
8.9%
11%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
10.0%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
6.9%
6.8%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
4
3.6%
3.5%
1.7%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Lugano goals (down), columns = FC Zurich goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Lugano
3.00
BSC Young Boys
2.33
FC Sion
1.80
FC Basel 1893
1.67
FC Thun
1.40
FC ST. Gallen
1.40
FC Luzern
1.33
FC Zurich
1.00
Lausanne
1.00
Grasshoppers
0.80
Servette FC
0.80
FC Vaduz
0.50
FC Lugano is 2.00 points better than FC Zurich in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BSC Young Boys
3.83
FC Lugano
2.80
FC Sion
2.20
FC Vaduz
2.17
FC ST. Gallen
2.00
FC Basel 1893
1.83
FC Thun
1.80
FC Zurich
1.50
Grasshoppers
1.40
FC Luzern
1.17
Lausanne
1.00
Servette FC
0.80
FC Lugano is 1.30 goals better than FC Zurich in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Lugano
0.60
Lausanne
1.17
Servette FC
1.20
FC Basel 1893
1.50
FC Luzern
1.67
FC Sion
1.80
BSC Young Boys
1.83
FC ST. Gallen
2.20
Grasshoppers
2.40
FC Zurich
2.67
FC Vaduz
2.67
FC Thun
2.80
FC Lugano is 2.07 goals better than FC Zurich in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 2.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sion
57%
FC ST. Gallen
56%
FC Lugano
55%
FC Vaduz
53%
Servette FC
53%
Lausanne
51%
FC Basel 1893
49%
BSC Young Boys
49%
FC Thun
46%
Grasshoppers
45%
FC Zurich
44%
FC Luzern
44%
FC Lugano is 11.2 percentage points better than FC Zurich in terms of average possession (55% vs 44%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Lugano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.33
1.20
0.27
0.27
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.35
1.00
0.33
0.36
0.36
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.29
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Zurich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Zurich
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.53
0.80
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
-
-
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.84
0.46
0.85
0.75
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Lugano over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Lugano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
0.80
0.80
1.13
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.57
0.83
0.83
1.00
0.27
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.57
0.67
0.67
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Zurich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Zurich
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.07
0.93
0.87
0.33
1.27
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
-
-
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (25)
0.60
1.00
0.85
0.92
0.33
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Lugano over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
81.5%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+0.9%
âś“ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Over 8.5 corners
70.4%
1.39
Superbet
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
+4.2%
âś— Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Lugano
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Behrens57%
D. Moncada44%
Beckham Castro33%
E. Pihlström25%
Y. Cimignani22%
L. Mai14%
R. Steffen11%
A. Papadopoulos11%
Anto Grgić11%
Daniel Dos Santos11%
D. von Ballmoos0%
H. Delcroix0%
A. Kendouci0%
Uran Bislimi0%
Joel Bichsel0%
M. Zanotti0%
D. Kelvin0%
B. Karimov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Karimov33%
A. Papadopoulos22%
Uran Bislimi22%
M. Zanotti22%
R. Steffen11%
A. Kendouci11%
D. Moncada11%
L. Mai0%
D. von Ballmoos0%
H. Delcroix0%
Kevin Behrens0%
Anto Grgić0%
Joel Bichsel0%
Y. Cimignani0%
Daniel Dos Santos0%
Beckham Castro0%
D. Kelvin0%
E. Pihlström0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anto Grgić33%
Y. Cimignani33%
M. Zanotti33%
Beckham Castro33%
R. Steffen22%
A. Kendouci22%
H. Delcroix17%
L. Mai14%
Kevin Behrens14%
D. von Ballmoos11%
A. Papadopoulos0%
Uran Bislimi0%
Joel Bichsel0%
Daniel Dos Santos0%
D. Kelvin0%
B. Karimov0%
D. Moncada0%
E. Pihlström0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
B. Karimov33%
Kevin Behrens29%
A. Papadopoulos22%
Daniel Dos Santos22%
D. Moncada22%
H. Delcroix17%
E. Pihlström12%
R. Steffen11%
L. Mai0%
D. von Ballmoos0%
A. Kendouci0%
Anto Grgić0%
Uran Bislimi0%
Joel Bichsel0%
Y. Cimignani0%
M. Zanotti0%
Beckham Castro0%
D. Kelvin0%
FC Zurich
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
V. Berisha33%
L. Kamberi33%
Umeh Emmanuel33%
M. Reichmuth20%
Bledian Krasniqi17%
P. Keny17%
Mohamed Bangoura17%
Alexander Hack0%
H. Lindner0%
Ilan Sauter0%
K. Spadanuda0%
Livano Comenencia0%
Selmin Hodza0%
N. Volken0%
L. Schodler0%
S. Walker0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
V. Berisha67%
Livano Comenencia50%
Alexander Hack40%
Selmin Hodza40%
K. Spadanuda33%
N. Volken33%
S. Walker25%
P. Keny17%
L. Kamberi17%
Umeh Emmanuel17%
L. Schodler17%
Bledian Krasniqi0%
H. Lindner0%
Ilan Sauter0%
M. Reichmuth0%
Mohamed Bangoura0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
V. Berisha33%
M. Reichmuth20%
Selmin Hodza20%
P. Keny17%
Umeh Emmanuel17%
L. Schodler17%
Bledian Krasniqi0%
Alexander Hack0%
H. Lindner0%
Ilan Sauter0%
L. Kamberi0%
K. Spadanuda0%
Livano Comenencia0%
N. Volken0%
Mohamed Bangoura0%
S. Walker0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
P. Keny17%
Bledian Krasniqi0%
V. Berisha0%
Alexander Hack0%
H. Lindner0%
Ilan Sauter0%
L. Kamberi0%
K. Spadanuda0%
Livano Comenencia0%
M. Reichmuth0%
Selmin Hodza0%
Umeh Emmanuel0%
N. Volken0%
Mohamed Bangoura0%
L. Schodler0%
S. Walker0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (28)
€66m
FB1 (26)
€49m
FL (26)
€39m
FSG (28)
€32m
FS (28)
€30m
LAU (23)
€27m
FL (28)
€26m
SF (27)
€21m
FT (25)
€17m
GRA (35)
€16m
FZ (27)
€15m
FV (26)
€6m
FC Lugano's squad is €24m more valuable than FC Zurich's (€39m vs €15m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (11)
€16m
FL (11)
€15m
BYB (4)
€15m
FS (10)
€15m
FSG (11)
€12m
LAU (8)
€9m
FL (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€7m
FZ (7)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
FT (7)
€4m
FV (9)
€2m
FC Lugano's attack is €2m more valuable than FC Zurich's (€8m vs €6m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (8)
€18m
FB1 (5)
€16m
SF (9)
€7m
FL (5)
€7m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (6)
€6m
LAU (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
GRA (10)
€4m
FL (5)
€3m
FZ (6)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
FC Lugano's midfield is €4m more valuable than FC Zurich's (€7m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (16)
€33m
FL (14)
€24m
FB1 (10)
€16m
FSG (11)
€14m
LAU (10)
€13m
FS (12)
€9m
SF (12)
€8m
FL (12)
€8m
FT (10)
€8m
GRA (15)
€7m
FZ (14)
€6m
FV (9)
€2m
FC Lugano's defence is €18m more valuable than FC Zurich's (€24m vs €6m).
Switzerland: Super League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
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BSC Young Boys
FC Basel 1893
FC Sion
FC Luzern
FC ST. Gallen
FC Thun
Lausanne
Servette FC
Grasshoppers
FC Vaduz