FC Lugano are tipped to take the win in a tight Swiss Super League clash, with the model assigning a 51% chance to a home victory, 25% to a draw and 24% to a Servette win. The expected total of 3.1 goals points to a lively encounter, yet the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 11.4% probability. Lugano’s home form shows they average 2.25 goals scored and 0.92 conceded against similar opposition, while Servette’s away record against comparable teams yields 1.85 goals scored and 1.69 conceded. The model’s selections include an Away under 2.5 HT goals pick at 98.6%, an Under 7.5 at 98.0%, an Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.9%, an Away under 3.5 goals at 95.9%, a Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.4%, an Under 6.5 at 94.9%, a Home under 2.5 2H goals at 92.2%, and an Away under 1.5 HT goals at 90.3%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as FC Lugano secured a 1-0 home win, extending their two-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 52% probability and the model’s call was correct. The final score matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, but the match ended 1-0. Every model selection hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%), Under 7.5 (98.0%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.9%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.1%), Under 6.5 (94.9%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (92.5%), and Away under 1.5 HT goals (90.9%). The low-scoring affair confirmed the model’s emphasis on defensive solidity and limited goal totals.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Lugano win✓ Hit
52.4%
Avg Implied 44.7% · @ 2.08
Edge
+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.20
Dafabet
2.18
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.11
Betano
2.10
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.56
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.80
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.62
Betano
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Servette FC win✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied 29.2% · @ 3.19
Edge
-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Lugano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.93
2.33
0.87
1.60
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.95
0.91
2.25
0.92
1.60
0.90
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
1.00
2.67
0.67
1.60
1.20
Clean sheet %
30% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Servette FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Servette FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.47
1.88
1.31
1.79
1.64
vs Stronger (2)
2.50
2.50
4.00
4.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.69
1.35
1.50
1.00
1.92
1.75
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
2.00
5.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.5%
@ 1.19+4.1%
Under 1.5
17.5%
@ 4.29-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.59
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.7%
@ 1.66+3.2%
Under 2.5
40.3%
@ 2.16-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.26
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.18
Marathonbet
2.18
Unibet
2.15
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.4%
@ 2.62+1.9%
Under 3.5
62.6%
@ 1.44-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.75
BetVictor
2.70
10Bet
2.70
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.61
Under
Pinnacle
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.4%
@ 1.54+0.5%
No
39.6%
@ 2.30-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Superbet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
No
Betfair
2.40
Unibet
2.35
1xBet
2.30
William Hil
2.30
Betano
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%@ 6.53+4.5%
2-1
9.8%@ 8.03+4.2%
2-0
8.1%@ 10.83+4.0%
1-0 ✓
7.6%@ 8.79+2.5%
1-2
6.2%@ 10.16+1.8%
3-1
6.1%@ 13.69+2.9%
2-2
5.9%@ 10.93+1.8%
0-0
5.6%@ 12.52+2.0%
FC Lugano goals ↓
Servette FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
4.4%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
1
7.6%
11%
6.2%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.1%
9.8%
5.9%
2.3%
0.7%
3
5.1%
6.1%
3.7%
1.5%
0.4%
4
2.4%
2.9%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Lugano goals (down), columns = Servette FC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Lugano
3.00
BSC Young Boys
2.33
FC Sion
1.80
FC Basel 1893
1.67
FC Thun
1.40
FC ST. Gallen
1.40
FC Luzern
1.33
FC Zurich
1.00
Lausanne
1.00
Grasshoppers
0.80
Servette FC
0.80
FC Vaduz
0.50
FC Lugano is 2.20 points better than Servette FC in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BSC Young Boys
3.83
FC Lugano
2.80
FC Sion
2.20
FC Vaduz
2.17
FC ST. Gallen
2.00
FC Basel 1893
1.83
FC Thun
1.80
FC Zurich
1.50
Grasshoppers
1.40
FC Luzern
1.17
Lausanne
1.00
Servette FC
0.80
FC Lugano is 2.00 goals better than Servette FC in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Lugano
0.60
Lausanne
1.17
Servette FC
1.20
FC Basel 1893
1.50
FC Luzern
1.67
FC Sion
1.80
BSC Young Boys
1.83
FC ST. Gallen
2.20
Grasshoppers
2.40
FC Zurich
2.67
FC Vaduz
2.67
FC Thun
2.80
FC Lugano is 0.60 goals better than Servette FC in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sion
57%
FC ST. Gallen
56%
FC Lugano
55%
FC Vaduz
53%
Servette FC
53%
Lausanne
51%
FC Basel 1893
49%
BSC Young Boys
49%
FC Thun
46%
Grasshoppers
45%
FC Zurich
44%
FC Luzern
44%
FC Lugano is 2.8 percentage points better than Servette FC in terms of average possession (55% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Lugano
For 5.4 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 11.1 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Servette FC
For 7.0 · Against 4.2 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 12.3 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Lugano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.9
9.0
4.5
4.2
4.8
25.4
24.9
25.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
8.8
8.3
9.4
4.7
4.5
4.9
25.5
25.3
25.7
vs Weaker (10)
9.4
11.8
7.8
3.7
2.8
4.3
25.0
23.0
26.3
% over line
38%
33%
42%
72%
72%
72%
83%
79%
88%
% under line
62%
67%
58%
28%
28%
28%
17%
21%
12%
This opponent (Servette FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Servette FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.0
10.7
4.5
4.5
4.5
23.8
23.9
23.7
vs Stronger (7)
11.6
9.3
13.2
4.3
5.3
3.5
20.6
21.7
19.8
vs Similar (39)
10.3
10.2
10.4
4.6
4.6
4.6
24.4
24.6
24.1
vs Weaker (4)
8.8
9.0
8.5
3.5
2.0
5.0
23.8
19.5
28.0
% over line
60%
60%
61%
70%
69%
71%
67%
68%
65%
% under line
40%
40%
39%
30%
31%
29%
33%
32%
35%
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC ST. Gallen
10.8
FC Zurich
10.7
Lausanne
10.6
FC Luzern
10.5
Servette FC
10.3
FC Basel 1893
10.2
FC Thun
10.2
Grasshoppers
10.0
FC Vaduz
9.9
FC Sion
9.4
BSC Young Boys
9.4
FC Lugano
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC ST. Gallen
5.8
Grasshoppers
5.2
Lausanne
5.1
FC Vaduz
5.0
FC Thun
4.9
FC Zurich
4.9
FC Basel 1893
4.8
FC Luzern
4.7
FC Lugano
4.7
Servette FC
4.6
FC Sion
4.5
BSC Young Boys
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC ST. Gallen
30.1
FC Thun
28.0
FC Zurich
27.5
FC Sion
26.5
FC Basel 1893
26.4
FC Lugano
25.4
Grasshoppers
25.0
Lausanne
24.7
FC Vaduz
24.4
FC Luzern
24.0
Servette FC
23.8
BSC Young Boys
23.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.4%
@ 1.74+2.1%
Under 9.5
44.6%
@ 1.99-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.73
Under
Unibet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Betano
1.93
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
69.0%
Under 3.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
74.1%
Under 21.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Lugano or Draw✓ Hit
76.8%
Avg Implied 70.5% · @ 1.33
Edge
+6.3%
52%
24%
23%
covers FC Lugano + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
FC Lugano or Servette FC✓ Hit
76.6%
Avg Implied 74.3% · @ 1.26
Edge
+2.3%
52%
24%
23%
covers FC Lugano + Servette FC
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Draw or Servette FC✗ Miss
46.6%
Avg Implied 55.2% · @ 1.70
Edge
-8.6%
52%
24%
23%
covers Draw + Servette FC
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.78
Superbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Lugano over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.7%
@ 1.17+7.2%
Under
13.3%
@ 4.52-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Under
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.75
1xBet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
FC Lugano over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
59.8%
@ 1.87+10.0%
Under
40.2%
@ 1.86-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.92
10Bet
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
Betano
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.89
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.85
FC Lugano over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
32.7%
@ 3.76+8.0%
Under
67.3%
@ 1.24-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.94
BetVictor
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.78
Betfair
3.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
FC Lugano over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 8.55+3.6%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.05-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.20
Marathonbet
8.70
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
7.70
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
Servette FC over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
72.3%
@ 1.30+0.7%
Under
27.7%
@ 3.27-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.43
Unibet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
Servette FC over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.7%
@ 2.45-1.4%
Under
63.3%
@ 1.51+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.62
Superbet
2.55
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.49
Under
Unibet
1.55
Betano
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Servette FC over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 5.77-2.2%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.11+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
6.05
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Under
Betano
1.14
BetVictor
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Servette FC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 14.67-2.4%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.02+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Lugano, so a minus line means FC Lugano give that many goals of a start and Servette FC receive them. At -1, FC Lugano must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Lugano win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Lugano)Actual: Servette FC
FC Lugano -2
15.7%
@ 7.67+3.9%
Draw -2
16.5%
@ 5.84+1.0%
Servette FC +2
67.9%
@ 1.24-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
Superbet
6.70
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.25
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
Away
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.27
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Handicap -1 (FC Lugano)Actual: Draw
FC Lugano -1
32.1%
@ 3.62+7.4%
Draw -1
21.3%
@ 3.87-1.8%
Servette FC +1
46.6%
@ 1.71-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.85
Unibet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.68
Superbet
3.40
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.96
Superbet
3.85
10Bet
3.85
Unibet
3.80
Away
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.72
10Bet
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Handicap +1 (FC Lugano)Actual: FC Lugano
FC Lugano +1
76.8%
@ 1.32+8.4%
Draw +1
13.2%
@ 5.03-4.7%
Servette FC -1
10.0%
@ 6.58-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.15
Marathonbet
5.15
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.50
Away
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
Superbet
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Handicap +2 (FC Lugano)Actual: FC Lugano
FC Lugano +2
90.0%
@ 1.07+5.0%
Draw +2
6.7%
@ 9.67-2.8%
Servette FC -2
3.3%
@ 16.50-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
8.00
Away
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
18.00
Unibet
12.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Lugano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.33
1.27
0.20
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.32
1.08
0.25
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.38
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
67% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Servette FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Servette FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.73
1.06
0.62
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.69
0.86
0.43
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
3.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
75.1%
@ 1.30+3.1%
Under 0.5
24.9%
@ 3.32-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.60
William Hil
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
BetVictor
3.30
Superbet
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.1%
@ 2.40-0.7%
Under 1.5
61.9%
@ 1.52+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
1xBet
2.41
Betfair
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.54
William Hil
1.53
BetVictor
1.52
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.3%
@ 5.74-0.8%
Under 2.5
84.7%
@ 1.10+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
1xBet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.60
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Lugano over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
56.9%
@ 1.77+4.5%
Under
43.1%
@ 1.95-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.77
Unibet
1.76
Superbet
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
Superbet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Unibet
1.92
FC Lugano over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
20.5%
@ 4.90+1.6%
Under
79.5%
@ 1.14-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.10
Betano
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.60
Under
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
FC Lugano over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 12.50-2.6%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.02+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Servette FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.0%
@ 2.09-6.4%
Under
62.0%
@ 1.67+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.20
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Under
Unibet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathonbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Servette FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.1%
@ 6.83-4.5%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.07+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.40
Marathonbet
7.40
Superbet
6.80
Betano
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Servette FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 19.83-3.3%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
10Bet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Lugano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.60
1.07
0.67
1.27
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.14
0.59
1.17
0.67
1.10
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.62
0.67
0.67
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Servette FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Servette FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.73
0.81
0.69
1.21
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.65
0.64
0.57
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.9%
@ 1.17+3.8%
Under 0.5
17.1%
@ 4.45-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Under
Marathonbet
4.55
Betano
4.55
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.45
Superbet
4.45
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
54.1%
@ 1.86+4.1%
Under 1.5
45.9%
@ 1.86-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
Betano
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Under
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.6%
@ 3.72-2.3%
Under 2.5
77.4%
@ 1.24+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.85
William Hil
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Lugano over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
64.8%
@ 1.54+4.7%
Under
35.2%
@ 2.33-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Under
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.33
Superbet
2.32
10Bet
2.25
FC Lugano over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
29.0%
@ 3.58+3.2%
Under
71.0%
@ 1.25-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.64
Superbet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.40
Under
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
FC Lugano over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 9.07-2.7%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.03+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.90
10Bet
9.50
Superbet
9.00
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Servette FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.7%
@ 1.77-2.5%
Under
50.3%
@ 1.94+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.78
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.00
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.89
Servette FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 4.89-4.4%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.14+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.30
Superbet
5.00
1xBet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Servette FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 13.00-4.1%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.5%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.9%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.0%
1.07
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
BetVictor
1.03
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
86.7%
1.17
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Superbet
1.16
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.1%
1.11
Betano
1.14
BetVictor
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.5%
1.14
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
85.5%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.7%
1.10
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.17
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.5%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
+4.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.5%
1.14
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.4%
1.24
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
76.8%
1.33
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
76.8%
1.32
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.29
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.6%
1.26
William Hil
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
76.3%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
-4.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.1%
1.30
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
William Hil
1.29
+3.1%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
72.3%
1.30
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.29
+0.7%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
71.0%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
-3.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Lugano
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Behrens57%
D. Moncada44%
Beckham Castro33%
E. Pihlström25%
Y. Cimignani22%
L. Mai14%
R. Steffen11%
A. Papadopoulos11%
Anto Grgić11%
Daniel Dos Santos11%
D. von Ballmoos0%
H. Delcroix0%
A. Kendouci0%
Uran Bislimi0%
Joel Bichsel0%
M. Zanotti0%
D. Kelvin0%
B. Karimov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Karimov33%
A. Papadopoulos22%
Uran Bislimi22%
M. Zanotti22%
R. Steffen11%
A. Kendouci11%
D. Moncada11%
L. Mai0%
D. von Ballmoos0%
H. Delcroix0%
Kevin Behrens0%
Anto Grgić0%
Joel Bichsel0%
Y. Cimignani0%
Daniel Dos Santos0%
Beckham Castro0%
D. Kelvin0%
E. Pihlström0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anto Grgić33%
Y. Cimignani33%
M. Zanotti33%
Beckham Castro33%
R. Steffen22%
A. Kendouci22%
H. Delcroix17%
L. Mai14%
Kevin Behrens14%
D. von Ballmoos11%
A. Papadopoulos0%
Uran Bislimi0%
Joel Bichsel0%
Daniel Dos Santos0%
D. Kelvin0%
B. Karimov0%
D. Moncada0%
E. Pihlström0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
B. Karimov33%
Kevin Behrens29%
A. Papadopoulos22%
Daniel Dos Santos22%
D. Moncada22%
H. Delcroix17%
E. Pihlström12%
R. Steffen11%
L. Mai0%
D. von Ballmoos0%
A. Kendouci0%
Anto Grgić0%
Uran Bislimi0%
Joel Bichsel0%
Y. Cimignani0%
M. Zanotti0%
Beckham Castro0%
D. Kelvin0%
Servette FC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mathis Lambourde33%
S. Mráz20%
M. Stevanović20%
T. Ouattara20%
E. Gertmonas0%
Pedro Naressi0%
Houboulang Mendes0%
Florian Ayé0%
D. Douline0%
Bradley Mazikou0%
Quentin Maceiras0%
Steve Rouiller0%
Timothé Cognat0%
M. Burch0%
L. Njoh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pedro Naressi60%
Timothé Cognat40%
D. Douline25%
S. Mráz20%
Quentin Maceiras20%
M. Burch20%
L. Njoh20%
E. Gertmonas0%
Houboulang Mendes0%
Florian Ayé0%
Bradley Mazikou0%
Steve Rouiller0%
M. Stevanović0%
Mathis Lambourde0%
T. Ouattara0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Timothé Cognat40%
Houboulang Mendes20%
E. Gertmonas0%
Pedro Naressi0%
Florian Ayé0%
D. Douline0%
Bradley Mazikou0%
S. Mráz0%
Quentin Maceiras0%
Steve Rouiller0%
M. Stevanović0%
M. Burch0%
L. Njoh0%
Mathis Lambourde0%
T. Ouattara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathis Lambourde67%
S. Mráz40%
T. Ouattara40%
Florian Ayé33%
Houboulang Mendes20%
M. Stevanović20%
E. Gertmonas0%
Pedro Naressi0%
D. Douline0%
Bradley Mazikou0%
Quentin Maceiras0%
Steve Rouiller0%
Timothé Cognat0%
M. Burch0%
L. Njoh0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (28)
€66m
FB1 (26)
€49m
FL (26)
€39m
FSG (28)
€32m
FS (28)
€30m
LAU (23)
€27m
FL (28)
€26m
SF (27)
€21m
FT (25)
€17m
GRA (35)
€16m
FZ (27)
€15m
FV (26)
€6m
FC Lugano's squad is €17m more valuable than Servette FC's (€39m vs €21m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (11)
€16m
FL (11)
€15m
BYB (4)
€15m
FS (10)
€15m
FSG (11)
€12m
LAU (8)
€9m
FL (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€7m
FZ (7)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
FT (7)
€4m
FV (9)
€2m
FC Lugano's attack is €1m more valuable than Servette FC's (€8m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (8)
€18m
FB1 (5)
€16m
SF (9)
€7m
FL (5)
€7m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (6)
€6m
LAU (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
GRA (10)
€4m
FL (5)
€3m
FZ (6)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
FC Lugano and Servette FC have a similar midfield value (both €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (16)
€33m
FL (14)
€24m
FB1 (10)
€16m
FSG (11)
€14m
LAU (10)
€13m
FS (12)
€9m
SF (12)
€8m
FL (12)
€8m
FT (10)
€8m
GRA (15)
€7m
FZ (14)
€6m
FV (9)
€2m
FC Lugano's defence is €16m more valuable than Servette FC's (€24m vs €8m).
Switzerland: Super League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
BSC Young Boys
FC Basel 1893
FC Sion
FC Luzern
FC ST. Gallen
FC Thun
Lausanne
FC Zurich
Grasshoppers
FC Vaduz