This opponent (Aarhus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.97
1.80
0.80
1.93
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
0.83
0.67
0.33
1.67
1.33
vs Similar (23)
2.04
1.00
2.08
0.92
2.00
1.09
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Midtjylland) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.2%
Under 1.5
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.0%
Under 2.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.1%
Under 3.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.4%
No
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1 ✓
9.5%
2-0
7.0%
3-1
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
1-2
6.2%
1-0
5.9%
3-0
4.8%
FC Midtjylland goals ↓
Aarhus goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
3.6%
3.1%
1.4%
0.5%
1
5.9%
10%
6.2%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.0%
9.5%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.8%
6.5%
4.4%
2.0%
0.7%
4
2.5%
3.3%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Midtjylland goals (down), columns = Aarhus goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Aarhus
2.09
FC Midtjylland
1.88
FC Copenhagen
1.58
FC Nordsjaelland
1.56
Brondby
1.39
Viborg
1.38
Sonderjyske
1.38
Odense
1.28
Silkeborg
1.12
Randers FC
1.09
FC Fredericia
1.06
Vejle
0.75
FC Midtjylland is 0.22 points worse than Aarhus in terms of average points per game (1.88 vs 2.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Midtjylland
2.25
FC Copenhagen
2.06
Aarhus
1.94
FC Nordsjaelland
1.59
Odense
1.59
Viborg
1.53
FC Fredericia
1.41
Sonderjyske
1.38
Brondby
1.36
Silkeborg
1.28
Vejle
1.12
Randers FC
1.03
FC Midtjylland is 0.31 goals better than Aarhus in terms of goals scored per game (2.25 vs 1.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Aarhus
1.00
Brondby
1.09
FC Midtjylland
1.12
FC Copenhagen
1.36
FC Nordsjaelland
1.44
Randers FC
1.47
Sonderjyske
1.53
Viborg
1.59
Odense
1.88
Vejle
1.88
Silkeborg
2.09
FC Fredericia
2.12
FC Midtjylland is 0.12 goals worse than Aarhus in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Nordsjaelland
57%
FC Copenhagen
55%
FC Midtjylland
54%
Aarhus
54%
Odense
51%
Brondby
51%
Silkeborg
49%
Randers FC
48%
Viborg
48%
Vejle
45%
FC Fredericia
44%
Sonderjyske
44%
FC Midtjylland is 0.3 percentage points better than Aarhus in terms of average possession (54% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Midtjylland
For 5.7 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 14.3 · Total 29.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aarhus
For 6.2 · Against 3.2 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 3.1 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 15.8 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Midtjylland
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.8
10.9
3.8
3.6
4.0
25.9
27.9
24.0
vs Stronger (1)
8.0
8.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
27.0
27.0
-
vs Similar (20)
10.4
9.4
11.2
4.2
4.1
4.2
28.3
32.1
25.3
vs Weaker (29)
10.5
10.4
10.6
3.5
3.3
3.8
23.8
24.8
22.7
% over line
57%
45%
70%
56%
44%
68%
72%
80%
65%
% under line
43%
55%
30%
44%
56%
32%
28%
20%
35%
This opponent (Aarhus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.2
9.0
3.1
3.2
3.0
22.7
22.2
23.1
vs Stronger (10)
10.4
10.5
10.2
4.0
3.4
4.6
20.8
20.2
21.2
vs Similar (39)
8.8
8.9
8.7
3.0
3.2
2.8
23.1
22.7
23.6
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
36%
30%
41%
46%
50%
42%
62%
60%
64%
% under line
64%
70%
59%
54%
50%
58%
38%
40%
36%
This opponent (FC Midtjylland) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Fredericia
11.9
Odense
10.6
Viborg
10.3
Vejle
10.2
FC Midtjylland
10.2
Sonderjyske
9.8
Brondby
9.8
Randers FC
9.5
Aarhus
9.4
Silkeborg
9.4
FC Copenhagen
9.0
FC Nordsjaelland
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Brondby
4.3
FC Midtjylland
4.3
Aarhus
4.1
Viborg
4.0
FC Copenhagen
4.0
Sonderjyske
3.9
FC Nordsjaelland
3.7
Randers FC
3.7
Odense
3.6
Vejle
3.2
Silkeborg
3.0
FC Fredericia
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Midtjylland
25.4
Viborg
23.9
FC Copenhagen
23.4
Aarhus
23.0
Brondby
22.4
Odense
22.2
Randers FC
21.9
Sonderjyske
21.7
Vejle
21.5
FC Nordsjaelland
21.1
FC Fredericia
20.4
Silkeborg
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.2%
Under 9.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.0%
Under 3.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.1%
Under 21.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Midtjylland
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.30
1.14
0.14
0.88
0.44
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.31
1.00
0.12
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.31
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
73% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.33
0.87
0.27
0.87
0.40
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.67
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.43
1.00
0.33
0.91
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Midtjylland) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Midtjylland over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Midtjylland over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Midtjylland over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Midtjylland
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.67
1.21
0.64
1.31
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.69
1.12
0.50
1.12
0.88
vs Weaker (13)
1.54
0.62
1.60
0.80
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
0.93
0.53
1.07
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (23)
1.09
0.57
1.08
0.58
1.09
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Midtjylland) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Midtjylland over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Midtjylland over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Midtjylland over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Midtjylland
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Franculino Djú54%
Adam Buksa33%
Julius Emefile25%
Aral Şimşir22%
Martin Erlić19%
Valdemar Byskov18%
Darío Osorio17%
Mikel Gogorza15%
Gue-sung Cho14%
Júnior Brumado13%
Paulinho12%
Denil Castillo11%
Philip Billing10%
Adam Gabriel10%
Ousmane Diao10%
Mads Bech Sørensen8%
Edward Chilufya6%
Victor Bak Jensen5%
Pedro Bravo3%
Kevin Mbabu0%
Jonas Lössl0%
Mikael Uhre0%
Dani Silva0%
Elías Ólafsson0%
Oliver Sørensen0%
Han-Beom Lee0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Philip Billing31%
Martin Erlić27%
Júnior Brumado27%
Darío Osorio25%
Julius Emefile25%
Kevin Mbabu24%
Franculino Djú23%
Ousmane Diao19%
Mikel Gogorza19%
Denil Castillo17%
Mads Bech Sørensen15%
Gue-sung Cho14%
Pedro Bravo13%
Han-Beom Lee11%
Dani Silva9%
Valdemar Byskov8%
Edward Chilufya6%
Victor Bak Jensen5%
Aral Şimşir2%
Jonas Lössl0%
Paulinho0%
Mikael Uhre0%
Adam Buksa0%
Elías Ólafsson0%
Oliver Sørensen0%
Adam Gabriel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aral Şimşir32%
Darío Osorio19%
Dani Silva18%
Philip Billing14%
Franculino Djú12%
Valdemar Byskov11%
Júnior Brumado10%
Adam Gabriel10%
Ousmane Diao10%
Denil Castillo8%
Mads Bech Sørensen8%
Edward Chilufya6%
Paulinho6%
Victor Bak Jensen5%
Martin Erlić4%
Mikel Gogorza4%
Kevin Mbabu3%
Gue-sung Cho3%
Han-Beom Lee3%
Jonas Lössl0%
Mikael Uhre0%
Adam Buksa0%
Elías Ólafsson0%
Oliver Sørensen0%
Pedro Bravo0%
Julius Emefile0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Franculino Djú31%
Darío Osorio31%
Gue-sung Cho23%
Aral Şimşir10%
Valdemar Byskov8%
Júnior Brumado7%
Mikel Gogorza4%
Denil Castillo3%
Han-Beom Lee3%
Kevin Mbabu0%
Jonas Lössl0%
Philip Billing0%
Paulinho0%
Mikael Uhre0%
Mads Bech Sørensen0%
Martin Erlić0%
Adam Buksa0%
Dani Silva0%
Edward Chilufya0%
Elías Ólafsson0%
Oliver Sørensen0%
Victor Bak Jensen0%
Adam Gabriel0%
Pedro Bravo0%
Ousmane Diao0%
Julius Emefile0%
Aarhus
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tobias Bech31%
Patrick Mortensen28%
Kristian Arnstad26%
Rasmus Carstensen17%
Markus Solbakken17%
Gift Links12%
Frederik Emmery12%
Kevin Yakob12%
Janni Serra10%
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson10%
Stefen Tchamche8%
Henrik Dalsgaard6%
Felix Beijmo6%
Frederik Tingager5%
Nicolai Poulsen5%
Sebastian Jørgensen4%
Jesper Hansen0%
Mads Emil Madsen0%
Magnus Knudsen0%
Eric Kahl0%
Youssouph Badji0%
Jonas Jensen-Abbew0%
Jacob Andersen0%
Luka Callø0%
James Bogere0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
James Bogere33%
Kristian Arnstad26%
Nicolai Poulsen25%
Felix Beijmo16%
Magnus Knudsen14%
Rasmus Carstensen12%
Gift Links12%
Eric Kahl12%
Frederik Tingager10%
Henrik Dalsgaard9%
Tobias Bech9%
Markus Solbakken8%
Kevin Yakob8%
Patrick Mortensen6%
Jesper Hansen3%
Mads Emil Madsen0%
Sebastian Jørgensen0%
Janni Serra0%
Youssouph Badji0%
Jonas Jensen-Abbew0%
Jacob Andersen0%
Luka Callø0%
Frederik Emmery0%
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson0%
Stefen Tchamche0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gift Links16%
Mads Emil Madsen14%
Jacob Andersen14%
Kristian Arnstad13%
Tobias Bech12%
Felix Beijmo12%
Frederik Emmery12%
Nicolai Poulsen10%
Kevin Yakob8%
Sebastian Jørgensen7%
Frederik Tingager5%
Rasmus Carstensen4%
Henrik Dalsgaard3%
Eric Kahl3%
Patrick Mortensen0%
Jesper Hansen0%
Janni Serra0%
Magnus Knudsen0%
Markus Solbakken0%
Youssouph Badji0%
Jonas Jensen-Abbew0%
Luka Callø0%
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson0%
Stefen Tchamche0%
James Bogere0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tobias Bech38%
James Bogere33%
Kristian Arnstad26%
Patrick Mortensen25%
Kevin Yakob15%
Gift Links12%
Nicolai Poulsen10%
Frederik Emmery4%
Henrik Dalsgaard0%
Frederik Tingager0%
Jesper Hansen0%
Rasmus Carstensen0%
Mads Emil Madsen0%
Sebastian Jørgensen0%
Janni Serra0%
Felix Beijmo0%
Magnus Knudsen0%
Markus Solbakken0%
Eric Kahl0%
Youssouph Badji0%
Jonas Jensen-Abbew0%
Jacob Andersen0%
Luka Callø0%
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson0%
Stefen Tchamche0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (26)
€108m
FC (26)
€73m
BRO (29)
€48m
FN (25)
€37m
AAR (28)
€36m
SIL (23)
€19m
VIB (22)
€19m
ODE (24)
€17m
RF (24)
€14m
SON (26)
€13m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
FC Midtjylland's squad is €72m more valuable than Aarhus's (€108m vs €36m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (8)
€47m
FN (8)
€18m
FC (7)
€17m
BRO (9)
€15m
AAR (10)
€14m
ODE (9)
€8m
SIL (6)
€6m
VIB (8)
€6m
RF (9)
€5m
VEJ (7)
€3m
SON (6)
€3m
FF (5)
€2m
FC Midtjylland's attack is €33m more valuable than Aarhus's (€47m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (8)
€24m
FC (7)
€17m
AAR (10)
€14m
BRO (5)
€11m
FN (5)
€7m
SIL (6)
€5m
SON (7)
€3m
RF (5)
€3m
FF (5)
€3m
ODE (6)
€3m
VIB (4)
€2m
VEJ (6)
€2m
FC Midtjylland's midfield is €10m more valuable than Aarhus's (€24m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FC (12)
€39m
FM (10)
€37m
BRO (15)
€22m
FN (12)
€12m
VIB (10)
€11m
AAR (8)
€8m
SIL (11)
€8m
ODE (9)
€7m
SON (13)
€6m
RF (10)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
FC Midtjylland's defence is €29m more valuable than Aarhus's (€37m vs €8m).
Denmark: Superliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: Superliga stats & trends →
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FC Copenhagen
FC Nordsjaelland
Brondby
Viborg
Sonderjyske
Odense
Silkeborg
Randers FC
FC Fredericia
Vejle