PythiaFootballBETA
FC Nordsjaelland is the clear favourite to win at home against Randers FC, with the model predicting a home win. This can be attributed to the home side's strong recent form, having won their last two matches, including a 2-0 victory over Valur Reykjavik. The model's prediction also takes into account FC Nordsjaelland's home strength, where they have scored an average of 2.56 goals and conceded only 1.
The model gives FC Nordsjaelland a 63% chance of winning, a 22% chance of a draw, and a 15% chance of Randers FC winning. The expected total number of goals is 3.1, with 2 goals being the most likely total. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 10.4%.
In terms of scoring and conceding, FC Nordsjaelland have a strong home record, scoring 2.56 goals and conceding 1 at home, while Randers FC have struggled away from home, scoring 0.6 goals and conceding 1.8.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, which has an 81.8% probability, and FC Nordsjaelland to win, which has a 63% probability. The home win percentage is 63%, the draw percentage is 22%, and the away win percentage is 15%.
FC Nordsjaelland's win extends their 2-game winning run, following a 2-0 victory over Valur Reykjavik. The final score was 1-0, a far cry from the expected 3.1 goals. The model predicted a home win, which proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 63%. The model's selection was the favourite.
The model's call on the total goals was also off the mark, as the actual total was well below the expected 3.1. The most likely score was 2-1, but this did not come to pass. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals was a miss, coming in with a probability of 81.8%.
FC Nordsjaelland| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.37 | 1.93 | 1.07 | 1.20 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.85 | 1.46 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 0.71 | 1.71 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 2.12 | 1.29 | 2.56 | 1.00 | 1.62 | 1.62 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
Randers FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 1.53 | 1.06 | 1.50 | 0.93 | 1.57 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.82 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.17 | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.11 | 1.26 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.44 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
| Randers FC goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 8.9% | 10% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 10% | 9.9% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 7.3% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
FC NordsjaellandRanders FCFC Nordsjaelland| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.4 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 21.1 | 19.4 | 22.7 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 8.8 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 21.4 | 19.0 | 23.5 |
| vs Weaker (25) | 8.1 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 20.8 | 19.8 | 21.8 |
| % over line | 36% | 38% | 35% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 33% | 58% |
| % under line | 64% | 62% | 65% | 54% | 54% | 54% | 54% | 67% | 42% |
Randers FC| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 21.7 | 20.9 | 22.6 |
| vs Stronger (26) | 8.9 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 22.1 | 22.2 | 21.9 |
| vs Similar (24) | 10.5 | 10.7 | 10.3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 21.4 | 19.4 | 23.3 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 46% | 42% | 50% | 44% | 35% | 54% | 54% | 42% | 67% |
| % under line | 54% | 58% | 50% | 56% | 65% | 46% | 46% | 58% | 33% |
FC Nordsjaelland| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.80 | 0.20 | 0.53 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.15 | 0.69 | 0.17 | 0.33 | 0.14 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 1.06 | 0.41 | 1.22 | 0.11 | 0.88 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+40pp vs league) | |||||
Randers FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.97 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.18 | 1.18 | 0.17 | 1.33 | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.74 | 0.84 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.78 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 84.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | â Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 81.8% | 1.18 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | +2.7% | â Miss |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 77.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | â Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 72.1% | 1.29 | 1.34 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.27 | +1.4% | â Miss |
| Under 4.5 cards | 70.7% | 1.43 | 1.47 | 1.39 | - | - | - | +6.9% | â Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/09/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 02/05/25 | A | 3-2 | |
| 13/04/25 | H | 5-2 | |
| 28/10/24 | A | 4-0 | |
| 16/09/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 17/03/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 13/08/23 | A | 0-5 |
FC Nordsjaelland| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 01/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 23/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 07/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 2-0 |
Randers FC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 11/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 23/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 0-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value âŽm | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Brondby | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 2.5 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 11.8 | 75% | 5.2 | 100% | 27.5 | 75% | 54 | 18 | 11 | 25 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 51% |
| 2 |  FC Copenhagen | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 10.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 67% | 22.7 | 33% | 115 | 23 | 59 | 33 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 55% |
| 3 |  FC Midtjylland | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 9.0 | 33% | 4.3 | 67% | 31.0 | 100% | 120 | 62 | 27 | 32 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 1.3 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 13.7 | 67% | 3.3 | 67% | 17.0 | 0% | 80 | 31 | 18 | 30 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 57% |
| 5 |  Viborg | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 1.2 | 25% | 25% | 0% | 13.0 | 100% | 2.5 | 25% | 27.0 | 100% | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 48% |
| 6 |  AC Horsens | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 12.0 | 75% | 3.0 | 50% | 23.8 | 75% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 |  Silkeborg | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2.0 | 50% | 25% | 25% | 10.0 | 50% | 3.2 | 75% | 19.8 | 25% | 26 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 8 | Randers FC | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2.2 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 12.2 | 100% | 1.8 | 25% | 20.0 | 25% | 27 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 9 |  Odense | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1.5 | 25% | 25% | 0% | 13.5 | 75% | 2.5 | 25% | 23.5 | 100% | 18 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 10 |  Aarhus | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3.0 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 11.7 | 67% | 4.0 | 67% | 32.3 | 100% | 37 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 54% |
| 11 |  Lyngby | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3.2 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 9.0 | 50% | 3.8 | 75% | 30.8 | 100% | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 12 |  Sonderjyske | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2.8 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 11.8 | 75% | 3.0 | 25% | 23.0 | 75% | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 44% |