FC Politehnica Timisoara’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding 1.47 goals on average against similarly matched opponents, while ASA Targu Mures has a comparable away concession rate of 1.36. The model favours a home win, with a 40 % chance, a draw at 32 %, and an away win at 28 %. The expected total goals hover at 2.1, with the most likely total being two goals (28 % probability). The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 14.7 % chance. Politehnica’s home form shows a 1.07-goal scoring average and a 1.47-goal concession average, whereas Targu Mures averages 1.00 goal scored and 1.36 conceded away. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.4 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0 %), Under 5.5 (97.9 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.3 %), and Home under 3.5 goals (96.9 %). Politehnica are on a four-game winning streak, while Targu Mures comes off a recent win.
Results analysis
The match saw FC Politehnica Timisoara extend a four-game winning streak, beating ASA Targu Mures 3-0. The model’s favourite, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 40%. The final score matched the predicted outcome. The model’s selections performed strongly: Under 7.5 hit at 99.8%, Under 6.5 hit at 99.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.5%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.3%, Under 5.5 hit at 97.9%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.9%, and Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.6%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and each pick’s result is noted as hit.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Politehnica Timisoara win✓ Hit
39.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures win✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Politehnica Timisoara
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.40
1.00
1.44
1.36
1.36
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.18
1.43
1.00
1.47
1.38
1.38
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (ASA Targu Mures) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ASA Targu Mures
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.10
2.00
0.93
1.27
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.36
1.16
1.62
1.00
1.08
1.33
vs Weaker (5)
3.00
0.80
4.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Politehnica Timisoara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.8%
Under 1.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.5%
Under 2.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.5%
Under 3.5
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.6%
No
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
13.4%
1-0
12.7%
0-1
10.1%
2-0
8.2%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
5.4%
FC Politehnica Timisoara goals ↓
ASA Targu Mures goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
10%
5.4%
1.7%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.3%
2.0%
0.5%
2
8.2%
7.8%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.2%
3.0%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Politehnica Timisoara goals (down), columns = ASA Targu Mures goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.60
Slatina
2.60
Concordia
2.40
CSM Reşiţa
2.40
Popești-Leordeni
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.80
FC Bacau
1.60
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.60
Metalul Buzău
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
CS Afumati
1.40
Ştefăneşti
1.20
Bihor Oradea
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
ASA Targu Mures
0.80
CS Dinamo București
0.60
Dumbrăviţa
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.40
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.20
Unirea Slobozia
0.20
FC Politehnica Timisoara is 1.80 points better than ASA Targu Mures in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Concordia
2.20
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.20
Popești-Leordeni
2.00
Chindia Targoviste
2.00
FC Bacau
2.00
Slatina
2.00
CSM Reşiţa
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Bihor Oradea
1.20
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.20
CS Afumati
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.00
Metalul Buzău
1.00
CS Dinamo București
0.80
Dumbrăviţa
0.80
Ştefăneşti
0.80
ASA Targu Mures
0.60
Unirea Slobozia
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.20
FC Politehnica Timisoara is 1.60 goals better than ASA Targu Mures in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.40
Slatina
0.40
Gloria Bistriţa
0.80
Bihor Oradea
0.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.00
FC Bacau
1.00
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.00
Popești-Leordeni
1.20
Dumbrăviţa
1.20
CSM Reşiţa
1.20
Metalul Buzău
1.20
CSM Satu Mare
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Concordia
1.60
ASA Targu Mures
1.60
Metaloglobus
1.60
Unirea Slobozia
1.80
CS Afumati
1.80
CS Dinamo București
2.00
Ştefăneşti
2.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
2.20
FC Politehnica Timisoara is 1.20 goals better than ASA Targu Mures in terms of goals conceded per game (0.40 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Politehnica Timisoara or Draw✓ Hit
71.8%
Avg Implied -
40%
32%
28%
covers FC Politehnica Timisoara + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Politehnica Timisoara or ASA Targu Mures✓ Hit
67.8%
Avg Implied -
40%
32%
28%
covers FC Politehnica Timisoara + ASA Targu Mures
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or ASA Targu Mures✗ Miss
60.4%
Avg Implied -
40%
32%
28%
covers Draw + ASA Targu Mures
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Politehnica Timisoara over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.0%
Under
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Politehnica Timisoara over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Politehnica Timisoara over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Politehnica Timisoara over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
61.2%
Under
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.5%
Under
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Politehnica Timisoara, so a minus line means FC Politehnica Timisoara give that many goals of a start and ASA Targu Mures receive them. At -1, FC Politehnica Timisoara must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Politehnica Timisoara win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Politehnica Timisoara)Actual: FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara -2
5.7%
Draw -2
11.7%
ASA Targu Mures +2
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Politehnica Timisoara)Actual: FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara -1
17.4%
Draw -1
22.1%
ASA Targu Mures +1
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Politehnica Timisoara)Actual: FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara +1
71.8%
Draw +1
17.7%
ASA Targu Mures -1
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Politehnica Timisoara)Actual: FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara +2
89.5%
Draw +2
7.7%
ASA Targu Mures -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Politehnica Timisoara
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.44
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.46
0.50
0.40
0.53
0.54
0.46
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (ASA Targu Mures) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ASA Targu Mures
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.93
0.33
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.48
0.85
0.38
0.58
0.58
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
1.50
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Politehnica Timisoara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.9%
Under 0.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.8%
Under 1.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.3%
Under 2.5
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Politehnica Timisoara over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
57.4%
Under
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Politehnica Timisoara over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Politehnica Timisoara over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
33.7%
Under
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Politehnica Timisoara
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
0.56
0.94
0.86
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.93
0.60
0.93
0.85
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (ASA Targu Mures) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ASA Targu Mures
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
1.07
0.60
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.68
0.77
0.62
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
0.40
3.00
0.50
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Politehnica Timisoara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.8%
Under 0.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.5%
Under 1.5
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.4%
Under 2.5
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Politehnica Timisoara over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
59.7%
Under
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Politehnica Timisoara over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
19.1%
Under
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Politehnica Timisoara over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
41.2%
Under
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Romania: Liga II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →