FC St. Gallen’s recent 0-1 loss to FC Nordsjaelland and a 5-game run of LWDWW suggest a cautious approach, while FC Thun’s 0-7 defeat to Lech Poznan and a streak of LLLWL underline defensive frailties. The model favours a home win with a 44% chance, a draw at 25% and an away win at 32%. The expected total goals is 3.3, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11% probability. FC St. Gallen averages 2.09 goals scored and 1.45 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas FC Thun averages 1.42 scored and 2.25 conceded on the road against similar teams. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.1% with a 4% edge, Under 7.5 at 98.0% with a 4% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.1% with an 8% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.8% with a 5% edge, Over 19.5 fouls at 95.4%, Under 6.5 at 94.9% with a 6% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.7% with a 12% edge, and Away under 3.5 goals at 93.4% with a 1% edge.
Results analysis
After a streak of three defeats, FC St. Gallen’s home form was still shaky, while FC Thun had just secured a win, setting the stage for an upset. The final score was 3-4, giving the away side a victory. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was predicted with a 44% probability, but the model was wrong. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.3%, Under 7.5 hit at 98.0%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.5%, and Over 19.5 fouls hit at 95.2%. However, Away under 2.5 2H goals missed at 96.4%, Under 6.5 missed at 94.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals missed at 94.8%, and Away under 3.5 goals missed at 93.4%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC ST. Gallen win✗ Miss
43.6%
Avg Implied 57.4% · @ 1.62
Edge
-13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Dafabet
1.64
1xBet
1.63
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied 21.5% · @ 4.34
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.40
BetVictor
4.40
10Bet
4.40
FC Thun win✓ Hit
31.6%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.43
Edge
+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.72
Betano
4.60
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Dafabet
4.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC ST. Gallen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.47
1.93
1.40
1.93
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (23)
1.91
1.43
2.08
1.58
1.73
1.27
vs Weaker (5)
2.40
1.00
1.00
0.50
3.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
7% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Thun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Thun
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
3.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.97
2.43
2.00
1.81
1.94
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.84
2.16
2.23
2.08
1.42
2.25
vs Weaker (4)
3.75
0.75
5.00
1.00
3.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
10% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (FC ST. Gallen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.1%
@ 1.07-1.9%
Under 1.5
14.9%
@ 7.18+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Under
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
7.50
Pinnacle
7.43
1xBet
7.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.9%
@ 1.30-7.7%
Under 2.5
36.1%
@ 3.28+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.25
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.8%
@ 1.78-11.0%
Under 3.5
58.2%
@ 1.99+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Unibet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
SBO
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Under
Betfair
2.10
SBO
2.04
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.03
Pinnacle
2.01
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.8%
@ 1.35-2.8%
No
34.2%
@ 2.95+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
William Hil
1.36
No
Betfair
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
1xBet
3.04
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%@ 9.54+6.2%
2-1
8.9%@ 8.36+3.5%
1-2
7.5%@ 13.84+4.2%
2-2
6.7%@ 10.76+2.5%
2-0
6.0%@ 11.98+2.1%
1-0
5.6%@ 12.87+2.1%
3-1
5.3%@ 10.19+0.8%
0-0
4.7%@ 25.97+3.0%
FC ST. Gallen goals ↓
FC Thun goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
4.6%
4.2%
2.1%
0.8%
1
5.6%
11%
7.5%
3.8%
1.4%
2
6.0%
8.9%
6.7%
3.4%
1.3%
3
3.6%
5.3%
4.0%
2.0%
0.8%
4
1.6%
2.4%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC ST. Gallen goals (down), columns = FC Thun goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Lugano
3.00
BSC Young Boys
2.33
FC Sion
1.80
FC Basel 1893
1.67
FC Thun
1.40
FC ST. Gallen
1.40
FC Luzern
1.33
FC Zurich
1.00
Lausanne
1.00
Grasshoppers
0.80
Servette FC
0.80
FC Vaduz
0.50
FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun are level in average points per game (both 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BSC Young Boys
3.83
FC Lugano
2.80
FC Sion
2.20
FC Vaduz
2.17
FC ST. Gallen
2.00
FC Basel 1893
1.83
FC Thun
1.80
FC Zurich
1.50
Grasshoppers
1.40
FC Luzern
1.17
Lausanne
1.00
Servette FC
0.80
FC ST. Gallen is 0.20 goals better than FC Thun in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Lugano
0.60
Lausanne
1.17
Servette FC
1.20
FC Basel 1893
1.50
FC Luzern
1.67
FC Sion
1.80
BSC Young Boys
1.83
FC ST. Gallen
2.20
Grasshoppers
2.40
FC Zurich
2.67
FC Vaduz
2.67
FC Thun
2.80
FC ST. Gallen is 0.60 goals better than FC Thun in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 2.80).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sion
57%
FC ST. Gallen
56%
FC Lugano
55%
FC Vaduz
53%
Servette FC
53%
Lausanne
51%
FC Basel 1893
49%
BSC Young Boys
49%
FC Thun
46%
Grasshoppers
45%
FC Zurich
44%
FC Luzern
44%
FC ST. Gallen is 10.0 percentage points better than FC Thun in terms of average possession (56% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC ST. Gallen
For 5.7 · Against 5.5 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 14.9 · Total 29.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Thun
For 4.6 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 12.1 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC ST. Gallen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.4
10.5
5.8
5.9
5.8
30.3
30.0
30.6
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
4.0
4.0
4.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
10.5
10.6
10.4
6.1
6.0
6.2
31.0
30.5
31.5
vs Weaker (8)
10.4
9.5
11.2
5.0
6.0
4.0
26.9
27.5
26.2
% over line
54%
58%
50%
84%
84%
84%
94%
96%
92%
% under line
46%
42%
50%
16%
16%
16%
6%
4%
8%
This opponent (FC Thun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Thun
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.6
10.0
4.5
4.4
4.5
28.0
28.5
27.5
vs Stronger (1)
16.0
-
16.0
7.0
-
7.0
29.0
-
29.0
vs Similar (39)
10.2
10.6
9.7
4.9
4.9
4.9
28.1
28.2
28.1
vs Weaker (10)
10.0
10.3
9.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
26.8
30.3
23.3
% over line
58%
64%
52%
70%
67%
73%
91%
91%
91%
% under line
42%
36%
48%
30%
33%
27%
9%
9%
9%
This opponent (FC ST. Gallen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Zurich
10.8
Lausanne
10.6
FC Luzern
10.5
FC ST. Gallen
10.5
Servette FC
10.3
FC Thun
10.3
FC Basel 1893
10.2
FC Vaduz
9.8
Grasshoppers
9.7
BSC Young Boys
9.5
FC Sion
9.5
FC Lugano
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC ST. Gallen
5.9
Grasshoppers
5.2
Lausanne
5.0
FC Zurich
5.0
FC Thun
5.0
FC Vaduz
4.9
FC Basel 1893
4.8
FC Lugano
4.6
Servette FC
4.6
FC Luzern
4.6
FC Sion
4.5
BSC Young Boys
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC ST. Gallen
30.3
FC Thun
28.0
FC Zurich
27.6
FC Sion
26.5
FC Basel 1893
26.4
FC Lugano
25.2
Grasshoppers
25.0
Lausanne
24.6
FC Vaduz
24.4
FC Luzern
24.0
BSC Young Boys
24.0
Servette FC
23.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
61.8%
@ 1.52+1.1%
Under 9.5
38.2%
@ 2.35-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.50
Under
Unibet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.38
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.29
1xBet
2.24
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
81.0%
Under 3.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
89.4%
Under 21.5
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC ST. Gallen or Draw✗ Miss
68.4%
Avg Implied 78.9% · @ 1.18
Edge
-10.5%
44%
25%
32%
covers FC ST. Gallen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
FC ST. Gallen or FC Thun✓ Hit
75.2%
Avg Implied 78.9% · @ 1.18
Edge
-3.8%
44%
25%
32%
covers FC ST. Gallen + FC Thun
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Draw or FC Thun✓ Hit
56.4%
Avg Implied 42.1% · @ 2.22
Edge
+14.3%
44%
25%
32%
covers Draw + FC Thun
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.30
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC ST. Gallen over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.3%
@ 1.05-5.7%
Under
16.7%
@ 8.50+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Under
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
8.00
Superbet
7.80
Betano
7.20
FC ST. Gallen over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
53.4%
@ 1.37-14.5%
Under
46.6%
@ 2.89+14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Under
BetVictor
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.94
FC ST. Gallen over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
26.7%
@ 2.17-16.4%
Under
73.3%
@ 1.64+16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.32
Unibet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
10Bet
2.15
BetVictor
2.15
Under
Marathonbet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
FC ST. Gallen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 3.98-12.7%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.22+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.53
BetVictor
4.10
Unibet
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Under
1xBet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
FC Thun over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.8%
@ 1.25+3.5%
Under
22.2%
@ 3.61-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Under
BetVictor
3.80
Pinnacle
3.79
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
10Bet
3.60
FC Thun over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.3%
@ 2.25+2.9%
Under
55.7%
@ 1.59-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.38
Superbet
2.32
Unibet
2.28
1xBet
2.26
Marathonbet
2.26
Under
Betfair
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
BetVictor
1.62
FC Thun over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
19.2%
@ 4.99+0.6%
Under
80.8%
@ 1.14-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.15
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
FC Thun over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
6.6%
@ 11.81-1.4%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.03+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC ST. Gallen, so a minus line means FC ST. Gallen give that many goals of a start and FC Thun receive them. At -1, FC ST. Gallen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC ST. Gallen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC ST. Gallen)Actual: FC Thun
FC ST. Gallen -2
10.6%
@ 4.18-10.9%
Draw -2
13.4%
@ 4.81-5.2%
FC Thun +2
76.0%
@ 1.50+16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Draw
Marathonbet
5.20
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.65
Unibet
4.50
Away
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
Handicap -1 (FC ST. Gallen)Actual: FC Thun
FC ST. Gallen -1
24.0%
@ 2.39-13.5%
Draw -1
19.6%
@ 4.01-2.7%
FC Thun +1
56.4%
@ 2.23+16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.45
Unibet
2.40
Betfair
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Superbet
2.37
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Away
Bet365
2.30
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
10Bet
2.20
Handicap +1 (FC ST. Gallen)Actual: Draw
FC ST. Gallen +1
68.4%
@ 1.18-7.8%
Draw +1
16.3%
@ 6.71+2.9%
FC Thun -1
15.2%
@ 8.77+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Away
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.50
Marathonbet
9.10
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Handicap +2 (FC ST. Gallen)Actual: FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen +2
84.8%
@ 1.04-4.6%
Draw +2
9.5%
@ 14.50+3.0%
FC Thun -2
5.8%
@ 22.00+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Away
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
21.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC ST. Gallen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
1.00
0.53
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.48
1.17
0.50
0.45
0.45
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.60
0.00
0.50
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Thun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Thun
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.88
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
1.12
0.92
1.00
0.58
1.25
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC ST. Gallen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.4%
@ 1.17-7.0%
Under 0.5
27.6%
@ 4.53+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.20
BetVictor
4.75
William Hil
4.60
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.6%
@ 1.86-10.5%
Under 1.5
60.4%
@ 1.87+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.95
SBO
1.91
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Under
SBO
1.93
10Bet
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.9%
@ 3.69-11.2%
Under 2.5
86.1%
@ 1.24+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.70
Betano
3.70
Superbet
3.70
Under
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.25
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC ST. Gallen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
58.7%
@ 1.44-5.7%
Under
41.3%
@ 2.62+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.44
Unibet
1.43
1xBet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.71
10Bet
2.65
1xBet
2.65
Superbet
2.60
Unibet
2.55
FC ST. Gallen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.1%
@ 3.03-13.5%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.33+13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.15
Marathonbet
3.08
Superbet
3.05
10Bet
2.95
1xBet
2.90
Under
10Bet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
FC ST. Gallen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 7.50-8.8%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.06+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.80
10Bet
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
FC Thun over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.3%
@ 2.02-4.7%
Under
58.7%
@ 1.72+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Unibet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
FC Thun over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.8%
@ 6.12-5.3%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.09+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.55
Superbet
6.20
1xBet
6.10
Betano
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
FC Thun over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 17.33-3.9%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
10Bet
19.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC ST. Gallen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.93
0.93
0.87
1.33
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (23)
1.09
0.96
0.92
1.08
1.27
0.82
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.40
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Thun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Thun
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.97
1.43
1.00
0.94
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.04
1.31
1.08
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.25
3.00
0.00
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC ST. Gallen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.4%
@ 1.09-6.6%
Under 0.5
20.6%
@ 6.72+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Under
1xBet
7.30
Bet365
7.00
William Hil
6.50
Betano
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
47.0%
@ 1.50-15.1%
Under 1.5
53.0%
@ 2.46+15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Under
Betano
2.57
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.50
William Hil
2.45
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
21.2%
@ 2.52-15.7%
Under 2.5
78.8%
@ 1.47+15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
William Hil
2.50
Marathonbet
2.47
1xBet
2.47
Under
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Superbet
1.45
William Hil
1.44
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC ST. Gallen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
59.3%
@ 1.28-12.9%
Under
40.7%
@ 3.33+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Under
Betano
3.40
1xBet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Superbet
3.20
FC ST. Gallen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
21.8%
@ 2.33-18.0%
Under
78.2%
@ 1.54+18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.42
10Bet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.30
1xBet
2.27
Betano
2.27
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.56
10Bet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Superbet
1.50
FC ST. Gallen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
5.2%
@ 5.21-12.6%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.13+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.45
1xBet
5.10
Betano
4.80
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
FC Thun over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.1%
@ 1.69-6.9%
Under
51.9%
@ 2.06+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Under
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
FC Thun over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
15.6%
@ 4.40-5.4%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.17+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.60
1xBet
4.50
Superbet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.05
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
FC Thun over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
3.6%
@ 11.83-4.3%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.02+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
1.06
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
-
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
1.02
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.3%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.9%
1.07
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
+6.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
-
+12.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
93.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+1.4%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.2%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
89.3%
1.22
1xBet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+12.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.4%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
+8.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.1%
1.24
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+11.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.1%
1.07
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
-4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.4%
1.17
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
83.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-5.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.9%
1.33
10Bet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
+13.5%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
80.8%
1.14
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
-0.6%
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.4%
1.09
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
1xBet
1.06
-6.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.8%
1.47
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Superbet
1.45
William Hil
1.44
+15.7%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.2%
1.54
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.56
10Bet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Superbet
1.50
+18.0%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
77.8%
1.25
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Betano
1.26
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
76.4%
1.41
Betano
1.44
Betfair
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
+10.3%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
76.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
+16.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.2%
1.18
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
-3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.4%
1.29
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.24
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
73.3%
1.64
Marathonbet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
+16.4%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.4%
1.17
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
-7.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC ST. Gallen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andrin Hunziker43%
Lukas Görtler33%
N. Scherrer33%
Lukas Daschner22%
Aliou Balde22%
L. Frokaj22%
Diego Besio12%
M. Stevanovic11%
C. Witzig11%
E. Owusu11%
L. Zigi0%
J. Stanić0%
C. Okoroji0%
H. Vandermersch0%
Betim Fazliji0%
Colin Noah Kleine-Bekel0%
Corsin Konietzke0%
J. Ruiz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lukas Görtler44%
Lukas Daschner33%
J. Stanić25%
H. Vandermersch22%
L. Frokaj22%
Colin Noah Kleine-Bekel17%
L. Zigi14%
C. Okoroji11%
M. Stevanovic11%
Betim Fazliji0%
Aliou Balde0%
Andrin Hunziker0%
C. Witzig0%
E. Owusu0%
Corsin Konietzke0%
J. Ruiz0%
Diego Besio0%
N. Scherrer0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
C. Okoroji33%
Betim Fazliji25%
Diego Besio25%
Lukas Görtler22%
Corsin Konietzke20%
Andrin Hunziker14%
Lukas Daschner11%
Aliou Balde11%
E. Owusu11%
J. Ruiz11%
L. Zigi0%
J. Stanić0%
H. Vandermersch0%
Colin Noah Kleine-Bekel0%
M. Stevanovic0%
C. Witzig0%
L. Frokaj0%
N. Scherrer0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lukas Görtler44%
Aliou Balde44%
Andrin Hunziker29%
C. Witzig22%
Lukas Daschner11%
E. Owusu11%
L. Frokaj11%
L. Zigi0%
J. Stanić0%
C. Okoroji0%
H. Vandermersch0%
Betim Fazliji0%
Colin Noah Kleine-Bekel0%
M. Stevanovic0%
Corsin Konietzke0%
J. Ruiz0%
Diego Besio0%
N. Scherrer0%
FC Thun
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Brighton Labeau50%
Furkan Dursun33%
Layton Stewart25%
Marc Gutbub25%
Nicolas Bürgy17%
N. Maier17%
N. Reichmuth17%
J. Bamert0%
Justin Roth0%
N. Steffen0%
F. Fehr0%
F. Saiz0%
Michael Heule0%
N. Zoukit0%
Lucien Dähler0%
Valmir Matoshi0%
Dorian Derbaci0%
S. Lengen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
F. Fehr50%
Nicolas Bürgy33%
Furkan Dursun33%
N. Zoukit20%
Justin Roth17%
N. Steffen17%
N. Reichmuth17%
Brighton Labeau0%
J. Bamert0%
Layton Stewart0%
N. Maier0%
F. Saiz0%
Michael Heule0%
Lucien Dähler0%
Valmir Matoshi0%
Dorian Derbaci0%
Marc Gutbub0%
S. Lengen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marc Gutbub50%
Furkan Dursun33%
Dorian Derbaci33%
F. Fehr25%
F. Saiz20%
N. Zoukit20%
Lucien Dähler20%
Nicolas Bürgy17%
Brighton Labeau0%
J. Bamert0%
Justin Roth0%
Layton Stewart0%
N. Maier0%
N. Steffen0%
N. Reichmuth0%
Michael Heule0%
Valmir Matoshi0%
S. Lengen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Furkan Dursun33%
S. Lengen33%
N. Reichmuth17%
Brighton Labeau0%
J. Bamert0%
Nicolas Bürgy0%
Justin Roth0%
Layton Stewart0%
N. Maier0%
N. Steffen0%
F. Fehr0%
F. Saiz0%
Michael Heule0%
N. Zoukit0%
Lucien Dähler0%
Valmir Matoshi0%
Dorian Derbaci0%
Marc Gutbub0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (28)
€66m
FB1 (26)
€49m
FL (26)
€39m
FSG (28)
€32m
FS (28)
€30m
LAU (23)
€27m
FL (28)
€26m
SF (27)
€21m
FT (25)
€17m
GRA (35)
€16m
FZ (27)
€15m
FV (26)
€6m
FC ST. Gallen's squad is €15m more valuable than FC Thun's (€32m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (11)
€16m
FL (11)
€15m
BYB (4)
€15m
FS (10)
€15m
FSG (11)
€12m
LAU (8)
€9m
FL (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€7m
FZ (7)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
FT (7)
€4m
FV (9)
€2m
FC ST. Gallen's attack is €8m more valuable than FC Thun's (€12m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (8)
€18m
FB1 (5)
€16m
SF (9)
€7m
FL (5)
€7m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (6)
€6m
LAU (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
GRA (10)
€4m
FL (5)
€3m
FZ (6)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
FC ST. Gallen's midfield is €1m more valuable than FC Thun's (€6m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (16)
€33m
FL (14)
€24m
FB1 (10)
€16m
FSG (11)
€14m
LAU (10)
€13m
FS (12)
€9m
SF (12)
€8m
FL (12)
€8m
FT (10)
€8m
GRA (15)
€7m
FZ (14)
€6m
FV (9)
€2m
FC ST. Gallen's defence is €6m more valuable than FC Thun's (€14m vs €8m).
Switzerland: Super League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
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FC Lugano
BSC Young Boys
FC Basel 1893
FC Sion
FC Luzern
Lausanne
FC Zurich
Servette FC
Grasshoppers
FC Vaduz