Pythia gives FC ST. Gallen a 54% win probability against FC Zurich in the Switzerland: Super League on 2026-07-26, with 25% for the draw and 22% for FC Zurich. The model estimates around 3.0 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (24%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (95%), Over 2.5 cards (90%), Over 21.5 fouls (89%), Over 1.5 (81%).
Results analysis
FC ST. Gallen finished 2-1 against FC Zurich (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 54% home win, 25% draw and 22% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (95%), Over 2.5 cards (90%), Over 21.5 fouls (89%), Over 1.5 (81%), Over 23.5 fouls (80%), Over 3.5 cards (77%). Missed: Over 8.5 corners (76%).
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
FC ST. Gallen winâ Hit
53.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich winâ Miss
21.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
â― 2. Goal Analysis
FC ST. Gallen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.27
1.73
1.33
2.00
1.20
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
1.75
1.67
2.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.67
1.33
1.56
1.44
1.75
1.25
vs Weaker (5)
2.80
0.60
2.33
0.33
3.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Zurich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Zurich
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.90
1.47
1.80
0.93
2.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
2.27
1.40
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (16)
1.19
1.75
1.25
1.88
1.12
1.62
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.33
2.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (FC ST. Gallen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.7%
Under 1.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.0%
Under 2.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.6%
Under 3.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1 â
9.8%
2-0
8.8%
1-0
8.5%
0-0
6.2%
3-1
6.1%
1-2
5.9%
2-2
5.5%
FC ST. Gallen goals ↓
FC Zurich goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
4.7%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
1
8.5%
12%
5.9%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.8%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
3
5.5%
6.1%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.5%
2.8%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC ST. Gallen goals (down), columns = FC Zurich goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
FC Thun
1.97
FC ST. Gallen
1.84
FC Lugano
1.76
FC Sion
1.66
FC Basel 1893
1.47
BSC Young Boys
1.45
FC Luzern
1.39
Servette FC
1.39
Lausanne
1.11
FC Zurich
1.00
FC Vaduz
0.98
Grasshoppers
0.93
FC ST. Gallen is 0.84 points better than FC Zurich in terms of average points per game (1.84 vs 1.00).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Thun
2.11
BSC Young Boys
2.11
FC Luzern
2.00
FC ST. Gallen
1.89
Servette FC
1.87
FC Sion
1.66
FC Lugano
1.55
FC Basel 1893
1.45
Lausanne
1.39
FC Zurich
1.29
Grasshoppers
1.25
FC Vaduz
1.16
FC ST. Gallen is 0.61 goals better than FC Zurich in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 1.29).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Sion
1.05
FC Lugano
1.11
FC ST. Gallen
1.24
FC Thun
1.37
FC Basel 1893
1.53
Servette FC
1.66
FC Luzern
1.74
Lausanne
1.76
BSC Young Boys
1.82
Grasshoppers
1.88
FC Zurich
1.89
FC Vaduz
2.14
FC ST. Gallen is 0.66 goals better than FC Zurich in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.89).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Lugano
56%
BSC Young Boys
55%
FC Basel 1893
55%
Servette FC
52%
FC Sion
51%
FC Zurich
51%
FC Luzern
50%
Lausanne
50%
FC Thun
46%
Grasshoppers
45%
FC ST. Gallen
45%
FC ST. Gallen is 5.8 percentage points worse than FC Zurich in terms of average possession (45% vs 51%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
FC ST. Gallen
For 6.5 · Against 6.0 · Total 12.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.8 · Against 3.1 · Total 6.9
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.0 · Against 14.4 · Total 31.4
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Zurich
For 3.8 · Against 7.6 · Total 11.4
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.8
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 14.4 · Total 27.6
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC ST. Gallen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.8
10.7
6.0
5.8
6.2
29.9
29.0
30.8
vs Stronger (6)
12.4
11.5
13.0
4.8
4.0
5.7
30.2
23.0
35.0
vs Similar (36)
10.6
11.0
10.3
6.3
6.1
6.6
30.4
30.5
30.3
vs Weaker (8)
10.2
10.0
10.7
5.4
5.8
4.7
27.5
26.4
29.3
% over line
61%
71%
52%
88%
84%
92%
98%
96%
100%
% under line
39%
29%
48%
12%
16%
8%
2%
4%
0%
This opponent (FC Zurich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Zurich
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.4
11.4
4.8
4.9
4.6
26.8
25.6
28.0
vs Stronger (14)
10.7
9.7
11.7
4.1
4.9
3.4
27.9
27.6
28.1
vs Similar (30)
11.1
11.1
11.2
5.0
5.0
4.9
26.6
24.3
28.8
vs Weaker (6)
10.5
9.0
12.0
5.2
4.7
5.7
25.5
27.7
23.3
% over line
66%
64%
68%
70%
76%
64%
80%
72%
88%
% under line
34%
36%
32%
30%
24%
36%
20%
28%
12%
This opponent (FC ST. Gallen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Zurich
10.9
FC ST. Gallen
10.8
Lausanne
10.7
Servette FC
10.6
FC Thun
10.4
FC Basel 1893
10.4
FC Luzern
10.3
FC Sion
9.9
BSC Young Boys
9.6
Grasshoppers
9.6
FC Vaduz
9.4
FC Lugano
9.1
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC ST. Gallen
6.0
FC Vaduz
5.3
Grasshoppers
5.2
FC Thun
5.1
Lausanne
5.0
FC Sion
4.9
FC Lugano
4.8
FC Basel 1893
4.8
FC Zurich
4.8
FC Luzern
4.6
Servette FC
4.5
BSC Young Boys
4.0
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC ST. Gallen
29.9
FC Thun
28.1
FC Sion
27.1
FC Zurich
26.8
FC Basel 1893
26.8
FC Vaduz
25.4
Grasshoppers
25.1
FC Lugano
25.1
Lausanne
24.6
FC Luzern
24.1
BSC Young Boys
23.9
Servette FC
23.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
65.6%
Under 9.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
76.9%
Under 3.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
89.4%
Under 21.5
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC ST. Gallen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
1.00
0.60
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.75
1.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.62
0.89
0.56
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Zurich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Zurich
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.60
0.87
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
0.64
1.00
0.80
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.50
1.06
0.25
1.00
0.75
1.12
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC ST. Gallen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC ST. Gallen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC ST. Gallen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC ST. Gallen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 8.5 corners
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 11. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (39)
€83m
FB1 (29)
€70m
FL (34)
€69m
FZ (82)
€58m
LAU (62)
€47m
FSG (33)
€41m
FL (31)
€41m
FT (28)
€30m
FS (28)
€29m
SF (28)
€17m
FV (26)
€6m
FC ST. Gallen's squad is €17m less valuable than FC Zurich's (€41m vs €58m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (12)
€37m
FZ (25)
€23m
FSG (15)
€20m
BYB (8)
€18m
LAU (23)
€18m
FS (11)
€17m
FL (12)
€15m
FL (9)
€8m
FT (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€4m
FV (8)
€2m
FC ST. Gallen's attack is €2m less valuable than FC Zurich's (€20m vs €23m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (11)
€21m
FB1 (5)
€17m
FZ (21)
€16m
FT (10)
€13m
LAU (12)
€9m
FL (8)
€9m
SF (10)
€6m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (7)
€5m
FL (5)
€5m
FV (9)
€2m
FC ST. Gallen's midfield is €10m less valuable than FC Zurich's (€6m vs €16m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (17)
€52m
BYB (20)
€44m
FL (14)
€20m
LAU (27)
€20m
FZ (36)
€19m
FB1 (12)
€15m
FSG (12)
€14m
FT (11)
€10m
FS (10)
€7m
SF (12)
€6m
FV (9)
€2m
FC ST. Gallen's defence is €4m less valuable than FC Zurich's (€14m vs €19m).
Switzerland: Super League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Lugano
BSC Young Boys
FC Sion
FC Basel 1893
Lausanne
Servette FC
FC Thun
Grasshoppers
FC Luzern
FC Vaduz