The model favours a home win, with a 52% chance of FC St. Gallen triumphing. The expected total is 2.6 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13% chance. FC St. Gallen, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Grasshoppers, on the road against a stronger opponent, manage 0.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded. The match carries a 52% home win, 27% draw and 21% away win probability. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 81.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 75.9%, Under 3.5 at 74.3%, Over 1.5 at 73.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 71.6% and Under 25.5 fouls at 71.1%. The recent form shows FC St. Gallen coming off three straight defeats, last losing 3-4 to FC Thun, while Grasshoppers also endured three losses, last falling 2-5 to FC Vaduz.
Results analysis
After a rough run of three straight defeats, FC St. Gallen bounced back to win 3-1 at home, extending their poor run into a victory that matched the model’s prediction. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 52% probability and the model’s call proved correct. The model’s suggested picks were largely accurate: Over 2.5 cards hit at 81.7%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 75.9%, Over 1.5 hit at 73.8%, and Under 25.5 fouls hit at 71.1%. Under 3.5 missed at 74.3% and Under 5.5 cards missed at 71.6%. The expected total of 2.6 goals and the most likely score of 2-0 were not realised, but the overall performance of the model’s selections was strong.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC ST. Gallen winâś“ Hit
51.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers winâś— Miss
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
FC ST. Gallen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.73
1.64
1.71
1.12
1.75
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.42
1.67
1.73
1.64
1.15
1.69
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
2.33
2.00
2.00
1.00
2.50
Clean sheet %
10% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Grasshoppers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grasshoppers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.27
1.13
1.40
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (17)
0.82
1.18
0.75
1.25
0.89
1.11
vs Similar (13)
1.15
1.38
1.57
1.57
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (FC ST. Gallen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.4%
Under 2.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.7%
Under 3.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
11.2%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.8%
0-1
6.1%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.4%
FC ST. Gallen goals ↓
Grasshoppers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
6.1%
3.5%
1.1%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.6%
1.8%
0.4%
2
10%
9.5%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.4%
5.1%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.2%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC ST. Gallen goals (down), columns = Grasshoppers goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Basel 1893
1.92
Servette FC
1.66
BSC Young Boys
1.61
FC Aarau
1.50
FC Lugano
1.42
FC Zurich
1.39
Lausanne
1.39
FC ST. Gallen
1.37
FC Luzern
1.37
FC Sion
1.16
FC Winterthur
1.05
Grasshoppers
1.05
Yverdon Sport
1.03
FC ST. Gallen is 0.32 points better than Grasshoppers in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Basel 1893
2.39
FC Luzern
1.74
Servette FC
1.68
Lausanne
1.63
BSC Young Boys
1.58
FC Zurich
1.47
FC Lugano
1.45
FC ST. Gallen
1.37
FC Sion
1.24
Grasshoppers
1.18
FC Winterthur
1.13
Yverdon Sport
1.05
FC Aarau
0.50
FC ST. Gallen is 0.19 goals better than Grasshoppers in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Basel 1893
1.13
BSC Young Boys
1.29
Grasshoppers
1.35
FC ST. Gallen
1.39
Lausanne
1.42
Servette FC
1.45
FC Zurich
1.50
FC Sion
1.50
FC Lugano
1.53
FC Luzern
1.68
FC Winterthur
1.79
Yverdon Sport
1.79
FC Aarau
2.00
FC ST. Gallen is 0.04 goals worse than Grasshoppers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Lugano
60%
FC Zurich
55%
FC Basel 1893
54%
BSC Young Boys
52%
FC ST. Gallen
50%
Servette FC
50%
Lausanne
48%
FC Luzern
48%
FC Sion
47%
Grasshoppers
46%
FC Winterthur
45%
Yverdon Sport
44%
FC ST. Gallen is 4.1 percentage points better than Grasshoppers in terms of average possession (50% vs 46%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC ST. Gallen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.64
0.50
0.44
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.79
0.64
0.55
0.38
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Grasshoppers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grasshoppers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.47
0.33
0.60
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (17)
0.35
0.41
0.12
0.50
0.56
0.33
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.54
0.57
0.71
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (FC ST. Gallen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC ST. Gallen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC ST. Gallen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC ST. Gallen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC ST. Gallen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
1.00
1.21
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.67
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.88
1.09
1.09
0.77
0.69
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Grasshoppers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grasshoppers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (17)
0.47
0.76
0.62
0.75
0.33
0.78
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.85
1.00
0.86
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC ST. Gallen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC ST. Gallen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC ST. Gallen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC ST. Gallen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 3.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Over 1.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (28)
€66m
FB1 (26)
€49m
FL (26)
€39m
FSG (28)
€32m
FS (28)
€30m
LAU (23)
€27m
FL (28)
€26m
SF (27)
€21m
GRA (35)
€16m
FZ (27)
€15m
FW (25)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
FC ST. Gallen's squad is €16m more valuable than Grasshoppers's (€32m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (11)
€16m
FL (11)
€15m
BYB (4)
€15m
FS (10)
€15m
FSG (11)
€12m
LAU (8)
€9m
FL (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€7m
FZ (7)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
FC ST. Gallen's attack is €7m more valuable than Grasshoppers's (€12m vs €4m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (8)
€18m
FB1 (5)
€16m
SF (9)
€7m
FL (5)
€7m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (6)
€6m
LAU (5)
€5m
GRA (10)
€4m
FL (5)
€3m
FZ (6)
€3m
FW (7)
€2m
FA (4)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
FC ST. Gallen's midfield is €2m more valuable than Grasshoppers's (€6m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (16)
€33m
FL (14)
€24m
FB1 (10)
€16m
FSG (11)
€14m
LAU (10)
€13m
FS (12)
€9m
SF (12)
€8m
FL (12)
€8m
GRA (15)
€7m
FZ (14)
€6m
FA (13)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
FC ST. Gallen's defence is €6m more valuable than Grasshoppers's (€14m vs €7m).
Switzerland: Super League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Basel 1893
Servette FC
BSC Young Boys
FC Lugano
Lausanne
FC Zurich
FC Luzern
FC Sion
FC Winterthur
Yverdon Sport
FC Aarau