FC St. Pauli are set to host 1. FC Kaiserslautern in a match where the model’s favourite outcome is a home win, with a 40 % chance of victory, a 30 % chance of a draw and a 30 % chance of an away win. The expected total is 2.4 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3 % probability. St. Pauli’s home form shows they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.7 conceded against similar opposition, while Kaiserslautern, playing away, average 0.77 scored and 1.77 conceded. The model’s selections lean heavily on low-scoring outcomes: Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.2 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9 %) and Away under 3.5 goals (98.2 %). Other picks include Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0 %), Under 5.5 (97.4 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4 %) and Home under 3.5 goals (96.3 %). All selections carry an edge ranging from 4 % to 11 %. The model’s edge on the low-scoring market reflects both teams’ modest offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting a tight, low-goal affair.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, FC St. Pauli, failed to deliver as the game ended 1-2 in favour of 1. FC Kaiserslautern, extending the away side’s unbeaten run. The model had chosen a home win with a 40% probability, but this call was wrong. The total-goals prediction of 2.4 was close to the actual 3, and the most likely score of 1-1 did not materialise. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 5.5 (97.4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.3%) and Home under 3.5 goals (96.2%). The low-scoring affair confirmed the model’s confidence in a subdued total.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC St. Pauli win✗ Miss
39.9%
Avg Implied 53.2% · @ 1.77
Edge
-13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.88
Unibet
1.85
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Dafabet
1.76
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.85
Edge
+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
3.98
1xBet
3.98
Pinnacle
3.97
Betano
3.95
Dafabet
3.95
1. FC Kaiserslautern win✓ Hit
30.3%
Avg Implied 22.3% · @ 4.21
Edge
+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
4.60
Pinnacle
4.55
Dafabet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC St. Pauli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.80
0.80
1.73
0.80
1.87
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
2.27
0.80
1.80
0.83
2.67
vs Similar (19)
0.79
1.53
0.80
1.70
0.78
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Kaiserslautern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.40
1.80
1.13
0.87
1.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
1.38
1.45
1.80
1.13
0.93
1.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.2%
@ 1.18-8.1%
Under 1.5
28.8%
@ 4.50+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.78
Superbet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.9%
@ 1.61-14.2%
Under 2.5
56.1%
@ 2.24+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.64
SBO
1.63
Under
Betfair
2.30
Betano
2.30
Pinnacle
2.30
Superbet
2.27
SBO
2.26
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.8%
@ 2.52-14.5%
Under 3.5
77.2%
@ 1.50+14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.60
Betano
2.57
10Bet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Superbet
2.55
Under
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.5%
@ 1.56-8.7%
No
49.5%
@ 2.27+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.57
Superbet
1.57
10Bet
1.57
William Hil
1.57
No
Betfair
2.45
Superbet
2.30
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.26
William Hil
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 7.00+7.7%
1-0
10.2%@ 8.36+4.8%
0-0
10.1%@ 13.44+6.7%
0-1
8.5%@ 13.40+5.1%
2-1
8.5%@ 7.47+2.5%
2-0
7.6%@ 9.32+2.8%
1-2 ✓
7.2%@ 12.35+3.6%
0-2
5.5%@ 23.49+3.6%
FC St. Pauli goals ↓
1. FC Kaiserslautern goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.5%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.2%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.6%
8.5%
4.7%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.3%
3.7%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC St. Pauli goals (down), columns = 1. FC Kaiserslautern goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
VfL Wolfsburg
2.14
Hannover 96
1.76
1. FC Heidenheim
1.64
FC St. Pauli
1.58
SV Darmstadt 98
1.53
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.53
Hertha BSC
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.35
VfL Bochum
1.29
Karlsruher SC
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.21
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
Arminia Bielefeld
1.15
1. FC Magdeburg
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.11
Energie Cottbus
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.09
VfL Osnabrück
1.07
FC St. Pauli is 0.06 points better than 1. FC Kaiserslautern in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
VfL Wolfsburg
2.18
Hannover 96
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.68
1. FC Heidenheim
1.67
FC St. Pauli
1.62
Dynamo Dresden
1.59
Arminia Bielefeld
1.56
Karlsruher SC
1.56
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.53
1. FC Magdeburg
1.53
VfL Bochum
1.44
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.42
Hertha BSC
1.38
1. FC Nürnberg
1.38
Holstein Kiel
1.29
Energie Cottbus
1.12
VfL Osnabrück
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.06
FC St. Pauli is 0.09 goals better than 1. FC Kaiserslautern in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
VfL Wolfsburg
0.93
1. FC Heidenheim
1.21
FC St. Pauli
1.26
Hannover 96
1.29
Hertha BSC
1.29
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
1. FC Nürnberg
1.32
VfL Bochum
1.38
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.38
Holstein Kiel
1.41
Arminia Bielefeld
1.50
Dynamo Dresden
1.56
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.59
1. FC Magdeburg
1.71
Energie Cottbus
1.82
VfL Osnabrück
1.87
Karlsruher SC
1.88
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.92
FC St. Pauli is 0.13 goals better than 1. FC Kaiserslautern in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hannover 96
56%
1. FC Magdeburg
54%
Arminia Bielefeld
52%
Holstein Kiel
52%
SV Darmstadt 98
51%
Dynamo Dresden
50%
1. FC Nürnberg
49%
Hertha BSC
49%
Karlsruher SC
48%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
48%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
48%
VfL Bochum
46%
Eintracht Braunschweig
44%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC St. Pauli
For 5.6 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.6 · Against 7.3 · Total 15.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1. FC Kaiserslautern
For 4.1 · Against 6.4 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.5 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC St. Pauli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.2
9.1
3.6
3.8
3.4
19.7
19.2
20.2
vs Stronger (21)
8.8
8.5
9.1
3.5
4.1
2.8
20.0
21.0
19.0
vs Similar (29)
10.2
11.5
9.1
3.7
3.5
3.8
19.4
17.7
21.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
52%
52%
46%
48%
44%
32%
32%
32%
% under line
48%
48%
48%
54%
52%
56%
68%
68%
68%
This opponent (1. FC Kaiserslautern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.5
10.1
5.0
5.5
4.4
25.5
25.8
25.1
vs Stronger (2)
12.5
-
12.5
1.5
-
1.5
22.5
-
22.5
vs Similar (46)
10.1
10.2
9.9
5.1
5.5
4.7
25.6
25.8
25.3
vs Weaker (2)
14.0
14.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
26.0
26.0
-
% over line
68%
69%
67%
74%
88%
58%
80%
85%
75%
% under line
32%
31%
33%
26%
12%
42%
20%
15%
25%
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Energie Cottbus
13.7
VfL Wolfsburg
11.7
VfL Osnabrück
10.9
Dynamo Dresden
10.7
VfL Bochum
10.5
SV Darmstadt 98
10.5
Hannover 96
10.5
Hertha BSC
10.4
1. FC Kaiserslautern
10.3
Eintracht Braunschweig
10.2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.2
Holstein Kiel
10.1
1. FC Magdeburg
10.0
Arminia Bielefeld
9.9
FC St. Pauli
9.6
1. FC Nürnberg
9.6
Karlsruher SC
9.4
1. FC Heidenheim
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Holstein Kiel
5.3
Eintracht Braunschweig
5.1
1. FC Kaiserslautern
5.0
1. FC Nürnberg
4.9
VfL Bochum
4.9
Hannover 96
4.8
Hertha BSC
4.8
1. FC Magdeburg
4.7
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.6
VfL Osnabrück
4.6
Karlsruher SC
4.6
Dynamo Dresden
4.2
Arminia Bielefeld
4.2
SV Darmstadt 98
4.1
1. FC Heidenheim
3.7
FC St. Pauli
3.7
VfL Wolfsburg
3.6
Energie Cottbus
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Holstein Kiel
26.4
Hannover 96
26.3
Energie Cottbus
26.3
Arminia Bielefeld
25.6
1. FC Kaiserslautern
25.5
VfL Osnabrück
25.2
1. FC Nürnberg
24.9
Eintracht Braunschweig
24.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
24.3
Hertha BSC
24.1
SV Darmstadt 98
23.8
1. FC Magdeburg
23.7
Karlsruher SC
23.2
Dynamo Dresden
23.1
VfL Bochum
23.0
VfL Wolfsburg
20.7
1. FC Heidenheim
20.5
FC St. Pauli
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
57.4%
@ 1.58-1.1%
Under 9.5
42.6%
@ 2.23+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.62
Superbet
1.59
1xBet
1.58
Unibet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Under
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.24
Superbet
2.22
Unibet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.5%
Under 3.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
58.5%
Under 21.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC St. Pauli or Draw✗ Miss
72.6%
Avg Implied 77.1% · @ 1.21
Edge
-4.5%
40%
30%
30%
covers FC St. Pauli + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Unibet
1.22
FC St. Pauli or 1. FC Kaiserslautern✓ Hit
68.7%
Avg Implied 76.2% · @ 1.23
Edge
-7.5%
40%
30%
30%
covers FC St. Pauli + 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Draw or 1. FC Kaiserslautern✓ Hit
58.7%
Avg Implied 46.7% · @ 2.00
Edge
+12.0%
40%
30%
30%
covers Draw + 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.11
Betano
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC St. Pauli over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.2%
@ 1.12-11.8%
Under
28.8%
@ 5.49+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Under
Pinnacle
6.23
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
FC St. Pauli over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.4%
@ 1.67-20.6%
Under
64.6%
@ 2.12+20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Under
Pinnacle
2.23
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
Betano
2.15
FC St. Pauli over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 3.10-17.0%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.33+17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.17
Unibet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
BetVictor
1.33
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.33
FC St. Pauli over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 6.50-10.5%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.08+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.70
1xBet
6.55
Marathonbet
6.55
Betfair
6.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1. FC Kaiserslautern over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.0%
@ 1.36-6.3%
Under
38.0%
@ 2.94+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.06
Superbet
3.05
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
2.95
1. FC Kaiserslautern over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
25.3%
@ 2.80-8.0%
Under
74.7%
@ 1.40+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.07
1xBet
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
Under
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Unibet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
1. FC Kaiserslautern over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 7.12-5.7%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.08+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
7.62
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.60
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
1. FC Kaiserslautern over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 16.50-4.1%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC St. Pauli, so a minus line means FC St. Pauli give that many goals of a start and 1. FC Kaiserslautern receive them. At -1, FC St. Pauli must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC St. Pauli win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC St. Pauli)Actual: 1. FC Kaiserslautern
FC St. Pauli -2
6.5%
@ 6.01-8.4%
Draw -2
12.4%
@ 5.17-4.9%
1. FC Kaiserslautern +2
81.0%
@ 1.33+13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
5.85
Unibet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.25
Superbet
5.10
Unibet
4.90
Away
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Handicap -1 (FC St. Pauli)Actual: 1. FC Kaiserslautern
FC St. Pauli -1
19.0%
@ 3.01-10.8%
Draw -1
22.3%
@ 3.68-2.0%
1. FC Kaiserslautern +1
58.7%
@ 1.95+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.05
Unibet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.90
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Unibet
3.55
10Bet
3.55
Away
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Handicap +1 (FC St. Pauli)Actual: Draw
FC St. Pauli +1
72.6%
@ 1.21-1.6%
Draw +1
17.1%
@ 5.78+1.5%
1. FC Kaiserslautern -1
10.4%
@ 8.83+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Draw
Marathonbet
6.15
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.55
Away
Betfair
11.00
Marathonbet
9.20
Bet365
9.00
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
7.50
Handicap +2 (FC St. Pauli)Actual: FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli +2
89.6%
@ 1.05+0.2%
Draw +2
7.5%
@ 13.50+0.6%
1. FC Kaiserslautern -2
2.8%
@ 26.00-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Away
Betfair
31.00
Bet365
21.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC St. Pauli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.20
0.47
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.73
0.40
0.20
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (19)
0.37
0.53
0.10
0.60
0.67
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Kaiserslautern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.87
0.53
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.62
0.62
0.87
0.53
0.36
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.3%
@ 1.29-6.1%
Under 0.5
33.7%
@ 3.39+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.60
William Hil
3.50
Superbet
3.45
1xBet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
27.9%
@ 2.35-11.7%
Under 1.5
72.1%
@ 1.54+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.47
Betano
2.47
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Under
Superbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
10Bet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Betano
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.7%
@ 5.51-8.2%
Under 2.5
91.3%
@ 1.12+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
William Hil
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
1xBet
5.45
Under
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC St. Pauli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.9%
@ 1.65-12.5%
Under
56.1%
@ 2.13+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Under
Pinnacle
2.25
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.14
Betano
2.10
10Bet
2.10
FC St. Pauli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 4.12-10.5%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.19+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.33
Superbet
4.15
Betano
4.10
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.17
FC St. Pauli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 10.42-6.3%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.03+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
1. FC Kaiserslautern over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
35.3%
@ 2.29-5.4%
Under
64.7%
@ 1.57+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.47
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.28
10Bet
2.25
Under
Unibet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Superbet
1.59
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.55
1. FC Kaiserslautern over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 7.80-4.1%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.05+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
8.10
10Bet
7.50
Betano
7.40
Superbet
7.10
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
1. FC Kaiserslautern over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 21.50-3.0%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC St. Pauli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.20
0.60
1.27
0.33
1.13
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
1.55
0.40
1.60
0.67
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.42
1.00
0.70
1.10
0.11
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Kaiserslautern) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.93
0.60
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.76
0.83
0.93
0.60
0.57
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.0%
@ 1.16-2.0%
Under 0.5
22.0%
@ 4.65+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.13
Under
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
Betano
4.70
Superbet
4.70
Bet365
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.5%
@ 1.82-10.7%
Under 1.5
59.5%
@ 1.91+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Under
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.8%
@ 3.58-11.2%
Under 2.5
85.2%
@ 1.26+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.70
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC St. Pauli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.6%
@ 1.44-10.9%
Under
46.4%
@ 2.62+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.44
10Bet
1.40
Under
10Bet
2.70
Betano
2.67
1xBet
2.60
Superbet
2.50
FC St. Pauli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.1%
@ 3.04-13.3%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.33+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.08
1xBet
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Betano
2.92
Under
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Superbet
1.30
FC St. Pauli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 7.55-7.5%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.06+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
8.10
1xBet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
1. FC Kaiserslautern over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.1%
@ 1.91-3.4%
Under
54.9%
@ 1.80+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.92
Betano
1.90
10Bet
1.90
Superbet
1.87
Under
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.74
1. FC Kaiserslautern over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.1%
@ 5.62-4.4%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.11+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.15
1xBet
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.25
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
1. FC Kaiserslautern over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 15.75-3.3%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.4%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
BetVictor
1.03
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.6%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
+13.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
1.08
Pinnacle
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.3%
1.12
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.0%
1.19
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.17
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.9%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.9%
1.33
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
BetVictor
1.33
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.33
+17.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.2%
1.26
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+11.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.33
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Superbet
1.30
+13.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.0%
1.33
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.30
+13.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.0%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.13
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.2%
1.50
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
+14.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.7%
1.40
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Unibet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
+8.0%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
72.6%
1.21
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Unibet
1.22
-4.5%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
72.6%
1.21
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-1.6%
✗ Miss
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.1%
1.54
Superbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
10Bet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Betano
1.55
+11.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
71.2%
1.12
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
-11.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.2%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.20
-8.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC St. Pauli
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Taichi Hara25%
Martijn Kaars25%
Marcus Mathisen25%
Branimir Hrgota0%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Arkadiusz Pyrka0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcus Mathisen50%
Arkadiusz Pyrka50%
Ricky-Jade Jones33%
Joel Chima Fujita33%
David Nemeth25%
Mathias Rasmussen25%
Tomoya Ando25%
Branimir Hrgota0%
Eric Smith0%
Taichi Hara0%
Martijn Kaars0%
Ben Voll0%
Louis Oppie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Branimir Hrgota25%
Taichi Hara25%
Arkadiusz Pyrka25%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Martijn Kaars0%
Marcus Mathisen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martijn Kaars75%
Branimir Hrgota25%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Taichi Hara0%
Marcus Mathisen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Arkadiusz Pyrka0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thierry Fidjeu-Tazemeta33%
Erencan Yardımcı25%
Ibrahim Kanate25%
Julian Krahl0%
Mergim Berisha0%
Marlon Ritter0%
Fabian Kunze0%
Jacob Rasmussen0%
Jan Elvedi0%
Maxwell Gyamfi0%
Semih Şahin0%
Paul Joly0%
Mika Haas0%
Leon Robinson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ibrahim Kanate75%
Marlon Ritter50%
Maxwell Gyamfi50%
Fabian Kunze25%
Jacob Rasmussen25%
Erencan Yardımcı25%
Semih Şahin25%
Mika Haas25%
Julian Krahl0%
Mergim Berisha0%
Jan Elvedi0%
Paul Joly0%
Leon Robinson0%
Thierry Fidjeu-Tazemeta0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Semih Şahin25%
Julian Krahl0%
Mergim Berisha0%
Marlon Ritter0%
Fabian Kunze0%
Jacob Rasmussen0%
Jan Elvedi0%
Maxwell Gyamfi0%
Erencan Yardımcı0%
Paul Joly0%
Ibrahim Kanate0%
Mika Haas0%
Leon Robinson0%
Thierry Fidjeu-Tazemeta0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marlon Ritter50%
Ibrahim Kanate25%
Julian Krahl0%
Mergim Berisha0%
Fabian Kunze0%
Jacob Rasmussen0%
Jan Elvedi0%
Maxwell Gyamfi0%
Erencan Yardımcı0%
Semih Şahin0%
Paul Joly0%
Mika Haas0%
Leon Robinson0%
Thierry Fidjeu-Tazemeta0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (33)
€154m
FSP (27)
€46m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
1FK (26)
€28m
HB (24)
€25m
SD9 (28)
€24m
1FM (26)
€21m
EB (27)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
EC (26)
€11m
VO (25)
€10m
FC St. Pauli's squad is €18m more valuable than 1. FC Kaiserslautern's (€46m vs €28m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (10)
€56m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FK (9)
€12m
1FM (9)
€10m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
HB (8)
€8m
EB (8)
€7m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
VO (9)
€5m
EC (10)
€4m
SGF (6)
€4m
FC St. Pauli's attack is €2m less valuable than 1. FC Kaiserslautern's (€10m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (8)
€32m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
1FK (6)
€5m
EB (7)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
1FM (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
HB (6)
€3m
VO (7)
€3m
EC (4)
€2m
FC St. Pauli's midfield is €10m more valuable than 1. FC Kaiserslautern's (€15m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (15)
€66m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
HB (10)
€13m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
1FK (11)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
EB (12)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
1FM (13)
€7m
EC (12)
€5m
VO (9)
€3m
FC St. Pauli's defence is €10m more valuable than 1. FC Kaiserslautern's (€21m vs €11m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
1. FC Nürnberg
Hertha BSC
VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Magdeburg
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Karlsruher SC
Eintracht Braunschweig
Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Bochum
Energie Cottbus
Hannover 96
VfL Osnabrück
Dynamo Dresden
Holstein Kiel
SV Darmstadt 98