This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.35
1.83
1.08
1.91
1.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.93
1.40
2.12
1.00
1.71
1.86
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
1.25
1.25
1.25
2.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
26% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.1%
Under 2.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.9%
Under 3.5
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.1%
No
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-2
8.7%
0-1
8.0%
2-1
7.9%
0-0
7.5%
1-0
7.1%
0-2
6.6%
2-2
5.7%
FC St. Pauli goals ↓
Holstein Kiel goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
8.0%
6.6%
3.2%
1.2%
1
7.1%
13%
8.7%
4.2%
1.5%
2
5.4%
7.9%
5.7%
2.8%
1.0%
3
2.4%
3.4%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC St. Pauli goals (down), columns = Holstein Kiel goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.85
1. FC Nürnberg
1.76
Holstein Kiel
1.65
Arminia Bielefeld
1.41
VfL Bochum
1.41
Duisburg
1.41
Regensburg
1.41
Union Berlin
1.38
Ingolstadt
1.32
FC St. Pauli
1.26
SV Darmstadt 98
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.26
1. FC Heidenheim
1.24
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.18
Erzgebirge Aue
1.18
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.15
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.03
FC St. Pauli is 0.38 points worse than Holstein Kiel in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Holstein Kiel
2.09
1. FC Nürnberg
1.79
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.68
Union Berlin
1.59
Regensburg
1.56
Duisburg
1.53
Arminia Bielefeld
1.50
1. FC Heidenheim
1.47
SV Darmstadt 98
1.38
Ingolstadt
1.38
Dynamo Dresden
1.24
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.24
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.09
VfL Bochum
1.09
FC St. Pauli
1.03
Erzgebirge Aue
1.03
SV Sandhausen
1.03
FC St. Pauli is 1.06 goals worse than Holstein Kiel in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 2.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SV Sandhausen
0.97
1. FC Nürnberg
1.15
VfL Bochum
1.18
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.26
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.29
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
Ingolstadt
1.32
Union Berlin
1.35
Arminia Bielefeld
1.38
FC St. Pauli
1.41
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.41
Erzgebirge Aue
1.44
Dynamo Dresden
1.53
Regensburg
1.56
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.62
Duisburg
1.65
1. FC Heidenheim
1.65
FC St. Pauli is 0.12 goals worse than Holstein Kiel in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC St. Pauli
For 3.4 · Against 6.7 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 15.4 · Total 27.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Holstein Kiel
For 5.9 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.5 · Against 14.9 · Total 30.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC St. Pauli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.5
9.9
1.8
1.9
1.7
26.3
28.5
24.2
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
10.4
10.7
10.2
1.7
1.4
2.0
24.1
25.7
22.9
vs Weaker (15)
9.6
10.0
9.0
2.3
3.6
1.1
31.1
33.5
28.0
% over line
48%
55%
42%
24%
28%
20%
87%
91%
83%
% under line
52%
45%
58%
76%
72%
80%
13%
9%
17%
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (23)
9.5
9.8
9.1
5.2
4.8
5.6
30.1
28.4
31.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
8.5
8.9
8.0
4.9
5.1
4.7
28.1
27.5
28.7
vs Weaker (8)
11.4
11.8
11.0
5.8
4.2
7.2
33.9
30.2
37.5
% over line
48%
50%
45%
78%
67%
91%
96%
92%
100%
% under line
52%
50%
55%
22%
33%
9%
4%
8%
0%
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
1. FC Heidenheim
10.3
FC St. Pauli
10.2
SV Darmstadt 98
10.1
Eintracht Braunschweig
10.0
1. FC Nürnberg
10.0
Arminia Bielefeld
9.9
Erzgebirge Aue
9.9
Union Berlin
9.8
Dynamo Dresden
9.5
1. FC Kaiserslautern
9.5
Holstein Kiel
9.5
VfL Bochum
9.5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
9.5
Regensburg
9.4
Ingolstadt
9.2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
9.0
SV Sandhausen
8.9
Duisburg
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fortuna Düsseldorf
5.2
Holstein Kiel
5.2
Regensburg
5.0
1. FC Heidenheim
4.8
Eintracht Braunschweig
4.7
Duisburg
4.6
SV Sandhausen
4.5
Dynamo Dresden
4.5
Ingolstadt
4.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.4
Erzgebirge Aue
4.4
SV Darmstadt 98
4.2
VfL Bochum
4.1
1. FC Kaiserslautern
4.1
FC St. Pauli
4.0
Union Berlin
3.7
1. FC Nürnberg
3.7
Arminia Bielefeld
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Sandhausen
33.6
Fortuna Düsseldorf
33.1
Regensburg
32.0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
30.9
Ingolstadt
30.9
1. FC Heidenheim
30.3
Holstein Kiel
30.1
1. FC Kaiserslautern
29.7
Dynamo Dresden
29.0
Eintracht Braunschweig
28.9
Union Berlin
28.9
SV Darmstadt 98
28.9
Erzgebirge Aue
28.8
VfL Bochum
28.2
Duisburg
27.7
FC St. Pauli
26.3
Arminia Bielefeld
26.0
1. FC Nürnberg
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.4%
Under 9.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.8%
Under 3.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
93.5%
Under 21.5
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC St. Pauli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.43
0.86
0.31
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.32
0.50
0.33
0.56
0.31
0.46
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
1.00
0.60
1.40
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.74
0.92
0.75
1.09
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.73
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.75
0.75
1.25
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
48% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC St. Pauli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC St. Pauli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.63
0.79
0.36
1.00
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.05
0.55
0.89
0.33
1.15
0.69
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.88
0.60
0.40
0.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.61
0.92
0.33
0.82
0.91
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.67
1.12
0.50
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC St. Pauli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC St. Pauli · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Taichi Hara25%
Martijn Kaars25%
Marcus Mathisen25%
Branimir Hrgota0%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Arkadiusz Pyrka0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcus Mathisen50%
Arkadiusz Pyrka50%
Ricky-Jade Jones33%
Joel Chima Fujita33%
David Nemeth25%
Mathias Rasmussen25%
Tomoya Ando25%
Branimir Hrgota0%
Eric Smith0%
Taichi Hara0%
Martijn Kaars0%
Ben Voll0%
Louis Oppie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Branimir Hrgota25%
Taichi Hara25%
Arkadiusz Pyrka25%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Martijn Kaars0%
Marcus Mathisen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martijn Kaars75%
Branimir Hrgota25%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Taichi Hara0%
Marcus Mathisen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Arkadiusz Pyrka0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
Holstein Kiel · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi50%
Jonas Therkelsen25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kasper Davidsen75%
Ivan Nekić50%
Jonas Therkelsen50%
Hiroki Sekine50%
Timon Weiner33%
Leon Parduzi33%
Jonas Meffert25%
Guillermo Balzi25%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Phil Harres0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Phil Harres50%
Adrián Kaprálik50%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Guillermo Balzi0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (29)
€123m
FSP (27)
€46m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
1FK (26)
€28m
SD9 (28)
€24m
EB (27)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
FD (26)
€10m
DUI (26)
€9m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
FC St. Pauli's squad is €12m more valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€46m vs €34m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (10)
€46m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FK (9)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
EB (8)
€7m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
SGF (6)
€4m
DUI (12)
€4m
ING (10)
€3m
FD (8)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
FC St. Pauli's attack is €2m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€10m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (6)
€26m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
1FK (6)
€5m
EB (7)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
FD (5)
€2m
DUI (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
FC St. Pauli's midfield is €9m more valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€15m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (13)
€50m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
1FK (11)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
EB (12)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
FD (13)
€5m
ING (12)
€3m
DUI (10)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
FC St. Pauli's defence is €6m more valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€21m vs €16m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Fortuna Düsseldorf
1. FC Nürnberg
Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Bochum
Duisburg
Union Berlin
Ingolstadt
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Sandhausen
1. FC Heidenheim
Dynamo Dresden
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Erzgebirge Aue
Eintracht Braunschweig
1. FC Kaiserslautern