This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union Berlin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.07
1.80
0.60
1.33
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.50
1.19
1.67
0.56
1.29
2.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.64
0.93
2.00
0.67
1.38
1.12
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.0%
Under 1.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.5%
Under 2.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.8%
Under 3.5
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.5%
No
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
9.1%
0-0
8.9%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.0%
1-2 ✓
7.7%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
5.6%
FC St. Pauli goals ↓
Union Berlin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
8.0%
5.6%
2.3%
0.7%
1
9.1%
14%
7.7%
3.1%
0.9%
2
7.0%
8.5%
5.2%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.2%
3.9%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.1%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC St. Pauli goals (down), columns = Union Berlin goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
VfB Stuttgart
2.03
Hannover 96
1.97
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.94
Union Berlin
1.76
Dynamo Dresden
1.47
1. FC Heidenheim
1.35
FC St. Pauli
1.32
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.32
VfL Bochum
1.29
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.24
SV Sandhausen
1.24
1. FC Nürnberg
1.24
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.21
Erzgebirge Aue
1.15
Arminia Bielefeld
1.09
Munich 1860
1.06
Wurzburger Kickers
1.00
Karlsruher SC
0.74
FC St. Pauli is 0.44 points worse than Union Berlin in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.76).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
VfB Stuttgart
1.85
Dynamo Dresden
1.56
Union Berlin
1.50
Hannover 96
1.50
Arminia Bielefeld
1.47
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.47
1. FC Nürnberg
1.35
1. FC Heidenheim
1.26
VfL Bochum
1.24
SV Sandhausen
1.21
FC St. Pauli
1.15
Munich 1860
1.09
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.09
Erzgebirge Aue
1.09
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0.97
Wurzburger Kickers
0.94
1. FC Kaiserslautern
0.85
Karlsruher SC
0.79
FC St. Pauli is 0.35 goals worse than Union Berlin in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hannover 96
0.94
1. FC Kaiserslautern
0.97
FC St. Pauli
1.03
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.06
SV Sandhausen
1.06
VfB Stuttgart
1.09
Union Berlin
1.15
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.15
1. FC Heidenheim
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.18
Wurzburger Kickers
1.21
Dynamo Dresden
1.35
Munich 1860
1.38
VfL Bochum
1.38
Erzgebirge Aue
1.53
1. FC Nürnberg
1.53
Arminia Bielefeld
1.59
Karlsruher SC
1.65
FC St. Pauli is 0.12 goals better than Union Berlin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC St. Pauli
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Union Berlin
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC St. Pauli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union Berlin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
VfB Stuttgart
10.8
Hannover 96
10.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
VfB Stuttgart
4.0
Hannover 96
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Hannover 96
28.8
VfB Stuttgart
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC St. Pauli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.53
0.47
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.37
0.58
0.50
0.50
0.22
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.62
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union Berlin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.33
0.53
0.27
0.87
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.25
0.56
0.22
1.14
0.29
vs Weaker (14)
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.33
0.62
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC St. Pauli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union Berlin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union Berlin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union Berlin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC St. Pauli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.87
0.53
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
0.00
1.00
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.37
1.10
0.20
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union Berlin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
1.27
0.33
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.94
1.11
0.33
0.14
1.71
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.50
1.50
0.33
0.75
0.62
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC St. Pauli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union Berlin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union Berlin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union Berlin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC St. Pauli · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Taichi Hara25%
Martijn Kaars25%
Marcus Mathisen25%
Branimir Hrgota0%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Arkadiusz Pyrka0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcus Mathisen50%
Arkadiusz Pyrka50%
Ricky-Jade Jones33%
Joel Chima Fujita33%
David Nemeth25%
Mathias Rasmussen25%
Tomoya Ando25%
Branimir Hrgota0%
Eric Smith0%
Taichi Hara0%
Martijn Kaars0%
Ben Voll0%
Louis Oppie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Branimir Hrgota25%
Taichi Hara25%
Arkadiusz Pyrka25%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Martijn Kaars0%
Marcus Mathisen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martijn Kaars75%
Branimir Hrgota25%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Taichi Hara0%
Marcus Mathisen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Arkadiusz Pyrka0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
Union Berlin · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Robert Skov25%
Leopold Querfeld18%
Rani Khedira17%
Woo-Yeong Jeong16%
Andrej Ilić15%
Oliver Burke13%
Ilyas Ansah11%
Danilho Doekhi11%
Josip Juranović9%
Tom Rothe8%
Stanley N'Soki7%
András Schäfer6%
Livan Burcu5%
Tim Skarke4%
Derrick Köhn3%
Diogo Leite0%
Alex Král0%
Frederik Rønnow0%
Christopher Trimmel0%
Janik Haberer0%
Carl Klaus0%
Aljoscha Kemlein0%
Dmytro Bogdanov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Livan Burcu26%
Christopher Trimmel26%
Janik Haberer26%
Rani Khedira20%
Andrej Ilić18%
Leopold Querfeld18%
Derrick Köhn17%
Diogo Leite16%
Aljoscha Kemlein16%
Stanley N'Soki14%
Danilho Doekhi14%
Oliver Burke13%
András Schäfer10%
Josip Juranović9%
Frederik Rønnow6%
Ilyas Ansah6%
Alex Král5%
Tom Rothe4%
Woo-Yeong Jeong0%
Robert Skov0%
Tim Skarke0%
Carl Klaus0%
Dmytro Bogdanov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dmytro Bogdanov33%
Andrej Ilić24%
Stanley N'Soki14%
Christopher Trimmel13%
Josip Juranović9%
Derrick Köhn7%
Oliver Burke6%
Janik Haberer6%
Aljoscha Kemlein6%
Livan Burcu5%
Tim Skarke4%
Woo-Yeong Jeong3%
András Schäfer3%
Rani Khedira3%
Ilyas Ansah3%
Danilho Doekhi3%
Diogo Leite0%
Alex Král0%
Robert Skov0%
Frederik Rønnow0%
Carl Klaus0%
Leopold Querfeld0%
Tom Rothe0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andrej Ilić29%
Danilho Doekhi14%
Oliver Burke10%
Leopold Querfeld9%
Ilyas Ansah6%
Livan Burcu5%
Tom Rothe4%
Derrick Köhn3%
András Schäfer3%
Stanley N'Soki0%
Diogo Leite0%
Woo-Yeong Jeong0%
Alex Král0%
Robert Skov0%
Frederik Rønnow0%
Josip Juranović0%
Christopher Trimmel0%
Tim Skarke0%
Rani Khedira0%
Janik Haberer0%
Carl Klaus0%
Aljoscha Kemlein0%
Dmytro Bogdanov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (54)
€430m
UB (29)
€123m
FSP (27)
€46m
1FN (28)
€40m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
1FK (26)
€28m
EB (27)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
FD (26)
€10m
WK (27)
€4m
M1 (13)
€2m
EA (18)
€2m
FC St. Pauli's squad is €77m less valuable than Union Berlin's (€46m vs €123m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (19)
€193m
UB (10)
€46m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
1FK (9)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
EB (8)
€7m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
SGF (6)
€4m
FD (8)
€3m
WK (8)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
M1 (3)
€0m
FC St. Pauli's attack is €37m less valuable than Union Berlin's (€10m vs €46m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (10)
€92m
UB (6)
€26m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
1FH (4)
€7m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
1FK (6)
€5m
EB (7)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
FD (5)
€2m
WK (9)
€1m
M1 (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
FC St. Pauli's midfield is €11m less valuable than Union Berlin's (€15m vs €26m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (25)
€145m
UB (13)
€50m
FSP (12)
€21m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
1FK (11)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
EB (12)
€9m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
FD (13)
€5m
WK (10)
€2m
EA (8)
€1m
M1 (6)
€1m
FC St. Pauli's defence is €29m less valuable than Union Berlin's (€21m vs €50m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →