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FC Tallinn vs Elva Result & Analysis

Date: 11/07/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 0-3
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Vs
38%
24%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Tallinn winâś— Miss
38.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elva winâś“ Hit
37.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D21W22D01L14L42W12L25L22D00DA·TAR21/09H·NĂ•M27/09H·TAL05/10A·ELV19/10H·NĂ•M23/10A·FLO27/10H·VII02/11A·LUU09/11A·PHO15/11H·PHO22/11
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.702.071.531.801.872.33
vs Stronger (3)0.672.000.502.001.002.00
vs Similar (24)1.752.041.671.921.832.17
vs Weaker (3)2.332.332.000.002.503.50
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W11D30W01L10W12L23L20W05L22DA·LUU18/09A·VII22/09A·TAL27/09H·NĂ•M04/10H·FC 19/10A·FCI23/10A·TAR27/10H·FLO02/11A·NĂ•M09/11A·NĂ•M05/07
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.631.471.471.801.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.481.671.431.501.541.85
vs Weaker (3)3.001.332.001.003.501.50
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.5%
Under 1.5
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.4%
Under 2.5
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.6%
Under 3.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.1%
No
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
7.0%
2-0
4.9%
3-1
4.7%
0-2
4.7%
1-0
4.7%
FC Tallinn goals ↓
Elva goals →
01234
04.2%4.6%4.7%2.7%1.1%
14.7%11%8.1%4.6%1.9%
24.9%8.2%7.0%4.0%1.7%
32.8%4.7%4.0%2.3%1.0%
41.2%2.0%1.7%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Tallinn goals (down), columns = Elva goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
Viimsi
1.78
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.00
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
FC Tallinn is 1.00 points worse than Elva in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.44
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.75
FC Tallinn is 0.81 goals worse than Elva in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.56).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.25
Viimsi
1.33
Flora II
1.36
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
FC Tallinn is 0.47 goals worse than Elva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 0.78).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L01L01L00D02L12L11D10W00D00DA·TAR21/09H·NĂ•M27/09H·TAL05/10A·ELV19/10H·NĂ•M23/10A·FLO27/10H·VII02/11A·LUU09/11A·PHO15/11H·PHO22/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.000.470.930.931.07
vs Stronger (3)0.670.670.500.501.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.621.080.421.080.831.08
vs Weaker (3)1.330.671.000.001.501.00
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D10W00D00D02L11D00D01L02LA·LUU18/09A·VII22/09A·TAL27/09H·NĂ•M04/10H·FC 19/10A·FCI23/10A·TAR27/10H·FLO02/11A·NĂ•M09/11A·NĂ•M05/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.730.530.600.800.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.590.740.500.640.690.85
vs Weaker (3)1.330.671.000.001.501.00
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W20W21W01L12L30W01L15L22D00DA·TAR21/09H·NĂ•M27/09H·TAL05/10A·ELV19/10H·NĂ•M23/10A·FLO27/10H·VII02/11A·LUU09/11A·PHO15/11H·PHO22/11
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.071.070.870.931.27
vs Stronger (3)0.001.330.001.500.001.00
vs Similar (24)1.120.961.250.831.001.08
vs Weaker (3)1.001.671.000.001.002.50
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D20W01L10W10W12L20W04L20WA·LUU18/09A·VII22/09A·TAL27/09H·NĂ•M04/10H·FC 19/10A·FCI23/10A·TAR27/10H·FLO02/11A·NĂ•M09/11A·NĂ•M05/07
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.900.930.871.000.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.890.930.930.860.851.00
vs Weaker (3)1.670.671.001.002.000.50
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.5%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

đź§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
FT wins
2
Draws
3
ELV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Tallinn vs Elva · H/A from FT
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/25AElva Vs FT1-0
16/08/25HFT Vs Elva1-2
22/05/25AElva Vs FT1-1
24/04/25HFT Vs Elva1-1
06/10/24AElva Vs FT0-1
10/08/24HFT Vs Elva3-4
30/05/24HFT Vs Elva4-0
04/05/24AElva Vs FT2-3

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/11/25HFT Vs Phoenix0-0
15/11/25APhoenix Vs FT2-2
09/11/25ALuunja Vs FT5-2
02/11/25HFT Vs Viimsi1-2
27/10/25AFlora II Vs FT2-4
23/10/25HFT Vs Nõmme United1-4
19/10/25AElva Vs FT1-0
05/10/25HFT Vs Tallinna Kalev II2-2
27/09/25HFT Vs Nõmme Kalju II2-1
21/09/25ATartu Welco Vs FT2-2

ElvaElva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/07/26ANõmme Kalju II Vs ELV2-2
09/11/25ANõmme United Vs ELV5-0
02/11/25HELV Vs Flora II2-0
27/10/25ATartu Welco Vs ELV3-2
23/10/25AFCI Levadia II Vs ELV2-1
19/10/25HELV Vs FC Tallinn1-0
04/10/25HELV Vs Nõmme Kalju II0-1
27/09/25ATallinna Kalev II Vs ELV0-3
22/09/25AViimsi Vs ELV1-1
18/09/25ALuunja Vs ELV1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDD1.14
HomeWDLLD1.00
AwayDLWLD1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%25%35%
AVG goals3.423.043.77
Over 1.5 %86%88%85%
Over 2.5 %60%54%65%
Over 3.5 %46%33%58%
Scored1.541.421.65
Conceded1.881.622.12
BTTS62%67%58%
Clean Sheet16%17%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLD1.58
HomeLLLWW1.60
AwayWLLLD1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%48%44%
AVG goals3.263.163.36
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %58%56%60%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored1.761.721.80
Conceded1.501.441.56
BTTS56%56%56%
Clean Sheet24%20%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElvaElva918
56%
2.0
147+7
2.3
56%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.8
-
2MaarduMaardu918
67%
2.0
2018+2
4.2
78%
78%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.0
-
3ViimsiViimsi916
56%
1.8
2212+10
3.8
100%
100%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.3
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II916
56%
1.8
1919+0
4.2
100%
89%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II1114
36%
1.3
2015+5
3.2
82%
73%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
6Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev813
50%
1.6
1314-1
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
7Tartu WelcoTartu Welco812
50%
1.5
2115+6
4.5
100%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.9
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn88
25%
1.0
610-4
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
9Nõmme United IINõmme United II98
22%
0.9
916-7
2.8
89%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
10Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II105
10%
0.5
927-18
3.6
100%
70%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.7
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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