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FC Tallinn vs FCI Levadia II Result & Analysis

Date: 18/09/2025
Time: 14:30
Final 2-3
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Vs
44%
25%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Tallinn winâś— Miss
44.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II winâś“ Hit
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-615L12L20W65W23L01L12L02L06L22DH·TAR05/07A·VII14/07H·LUU19/07A·FCI26/07H·FLO02/08A·NĂ•M09/08H·ELV16/08H·TAR23/08A·NĂ•M31/08A·TAL12/09
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.931.501.571.692.25
vs Stronger (3)0.672.330.002.001.002.50
vs Similar (24)1.582.001.451.731.692.23
vs Weaker (3)2.671.002.500.503.002.00
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-770W03L33D56L20W02L12L02L62W33DH·LUU05/07A·TAR12/07H·TAL18/07H·FC 26/07A·NĂ•M02/08A·ELV09/08H·FLO18/08H·VII25/08A·LUU30/08H·NĂ•M15/09
Avg total
5.0
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.732.132.292.501.251.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)1.222.301.642.820.831.83
vs Weaker (7)3.431.574.671.332.501.75
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.8%
Under 1.5
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.8%
Under 2.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.5%
Under 3.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.0%
No
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.4%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
6.3%
1-0
6.2%
3-1
5.3%
0-0
5.2%
FC Tallinn goals ↓
FCI Levadia II goals →
01234
05.2%4.9%4.2%2.0%0.7%
16.2%11%7.4%3.6%1.3%
26.3%9.1%6.5%3.1%1.1%
33.7%5.3%3.8%1.8%0.7%
41.6%2.3%1.7%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Tallinn goals (down), columns = FCI Levadia II goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nõmme United
2.56
Viimsi
2.17
Tartu Welco
1.75
Elva
1.61
Flora II
1.33
Nõmme Kalju II
1.25
FCI Levadia II
1.25
FC Tallinn
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Tallinna Kalev II
0.75
Luunja
0.28
FC Tallinn is 0.14 points worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.47
Viimsi
2.31
Tartu Welco
2.11
Elva
1.72
FCI Levadia II
1.72
Flora II
1.69
FC Tallinn
1.66
Nõmme Kalju II
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
1.47
Luunja
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
FC Tallinn is 0.06 goals worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals scored per game (1.66 vs 1.72).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nõmme United
0.75
Viimsi
0.75
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.56
Flora II
1.56
Elva
1.64
FCI Levadia II
1.86
FC Tallinn
2.03
Nõmme Kalju II
2.19
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Luunja
3.81
FC Tallinn is 0.17 goals worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.03 vs 1.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L11D10W43W12L00D10W02L03L11DH·TAR05/07A·VII14/07H·LUU19/07A·FCI26/07H·FLO02/08A·NĂ•M09/08H·ELV16/08H·TAR23/08A·NĂ•M31/08A·TAL12/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.000.570.790.751.19
vs Stronger (3)0.670.670.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.541.040.450.910.621.15
vs Weaker (3)1.671.001.500.502.002.00
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W01L22D34L20W01L10W01L42W12LH·LUU05/07A·TAR12/07H·TAL18/07H·FC 26/07A·NĂ•M02/08A·ELV09/08H·FLO18/08H·VII25/08A·LUU30/08H·NĂ•M15/09
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.171.431.360.881.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.781.261.001.450.581.08
vs Weaker (7)2.290.863.001.001.750.75
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L10W22D11D01L02L00D03L11DH·TAR05/07A·VII14/07H·LUU19/07A·FCI26/07H·FLO02/08A·NĂ•M09/08H·ELV16/08H·TAR23/08A·NĂ•M31/08A·TAL12/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.930.930.790.941.06
vs Stronger (3)0.001.670.002.000.001.50
vs Similar (24)1.040.961.000.821.081.08
vs Weaker (3)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W02L11D22D00D01L02L01L20W21WH·LUU05/07A·TAR12/07H·TAL18/07H·FC 26/07A·NĂ•M02/08A·ELV09/08H·FLO18/08H·VII25/08A·LUU30/08H·NĂ•M15/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.970.861.140.380.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.431.040.641.360.250.75
vs Weaker (7)1.140.711.670.330.751.00
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.8%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
FT wins
1
Draws
3
FLI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Tallinn vs FCI Levadia II · H/A from FT
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/25AFCI Levadia II Vs FT5-6
19/06/25AFCI Levadia II Vs FT0-2
16/03/25HFT Vs FCI Levadia II1-1
20/10/24AFCI Levadia II Vs FT2-3
15/09/24HFT Vs FCI Levadia II1-2
02/06/24AFCI Levadia II Vs FT0-1
27/04/24HFT Vs FCI Levadia II3-4
02/10/23HFT Vs FCI Levadia II0-3

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/09/25ATallinna Kalev II Vs FT2-2
31/08/25ANõmme United Vs FT6-0
23/08/25HFT Vs Tartu Welco0-2
16/08/25HFT Vs Elva1-2
09/08/25ANõmme Kalju II Vs FT1-0
02/08/25HFT Vs Flora II2-3
26/07/25AFCI Levadia II Vs FT5-6
19/07/25HFT Vs Luunja2-0
14/07/25AViimsi Vs FT2-1
05/07/25HFT Vs Tartu Welco1-5

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/09/25HFLI Vs Nõmme Kalju II3-3
30/08/25ALuunja Vs FLI2-6
25/08/25HFLI Vs Viimsi0-2
18/08/25HFLI Vs Flora II1-2
09/08/25AElva Vs FLI2-0
02/08/25ANõmme United Vs FLI0-2
26/07/25HFLI Vs FC Tallinn5-6
18/07/25HFLI Vs Tallinna Kalev II3-3
12/07/25ATartu Welco Vs FLI3-0
05/07/25HFLI Vs Luunja7-0

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD1.18
HomeLWLLL1.00
AwayLWLLD1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%25%38%
AVG goals3.243.123.35
Over 1.5 %86%92%81%
Over 2.5 %54%50%58%
Over 3.5 %40%33%46%
Scored1.521.501.54
Conceded1.721.621.81
BTTS56%62%50%
Clean Sheet20%17%23%
Corners---
Cards---
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWD1.02
HomeDLLLD1.17
AwayLLWLW0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%33%23%
AVG goals3.704.253.19
Over 1.5 %88%92%85%
Over 2.5 %66%79%54%
Over 3.5 %46%50%42%
Scored1.602.081.15
Conceded2.102.172.04
BTTS60%67%54%
Clean Sheet12%12%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3692
83%
2.6
12527+98
4.2
92%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.50.8
-
2ViimsiViimsi3678
67%
2.2
8327+56
3.1
81%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.8
-
3Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3663
50%
1.8
7656+20
3.7
86%
72%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.6
-
4ElvaElva3658
47%
1.6
6259+3
3.4
86%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
5Flora IIFlora II3648
36%
1.3
6156+5
3.2
83%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
6FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3645
33%
1.2
6267-5
3.6
89%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
7Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II3645
36%
1.2
5679-23
3.8
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn3842
29%
1.1
6377-14
3.7
89%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
9Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3627
14%
0.8
5396-43
4.1
94%
81%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.7
-
10LuunjaLuunja3610
8%
0.3
40137-97
4.9
89%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.13.8
-
11PhoenixPhoenix22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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