FC Tallinn hosts Flora II in the Estonia Esiliiga A on August 1st. Recent form suggests a closely contested match, as FC Tallinn is coming off a draw, while Flora II is looking to bounce back from a defeat. This storyline is driven by attacking and defensive numbers, with FC Tallinn averaging 1.78 goals scored at home and 2.11 conceded, while Flora II averages 1 goal scored away and 2.3 conceded. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 10.2% probability.
The model predicts an away win, with a 47% probability, and an expected total of 3.5 goals. The most likely total number of goals is 3. Flora II is expected to score at a similar rate away to FC Tallinn, and FC Tallinn is expected to concede at a similar rate at home to Flora II.
The model's selection is the away win, with a 47% probability. The model also suggests Over 1.5, with a 86.9% probability. The home win percentage is 29%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 47%.
Results analysis
FC Tallinn's 1-0 victory over Flora II was a major upset, as the home team extended their run of six consecutive draws and seven losses in their last ten matches. The win extends their recent form storyline, coming off a draw against Tallinna Kalev. In stark contrast, Flora II's defeat marks the continuation of their recent struggles, having lost to FC Tallinn just last match and also coming off a defeat. The model's selection, an Away win, was incorrect, as the pre-match probability of 47% failed to materialize. The model's call was wrong. The model's selection, Away win, was the pre-match favourite. The suggested pick, Over 1.5, missed, with a probability of 86.9%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Tallinn win✓ Hit
28.9%
Avg Implied 22.3% · @ 4.04
Edge
+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.20
1xBet
4.11
BetVictor
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied 20.2% · @ 4.45
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
4.75
Betfair
4.60
Pinnacle
4.53
Dafabet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Flora II win✗ Miss
47.4%
Avg Implied 57.5% · @ 1.57
Edge
-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.61
Pinnacle
1.61
William Hil
1.60
Dafabet
1.59
1xBet
1.58
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
2.00
1.53
1.93
2.00
2.07
vs Stronger (10)
1.40
2.00
0.83
2.33
2.25
1.50
vs Similar (12)
1.83
2.25
2.17
2.17
1.50
2.33
vs Weaker (8)
2.12
1.62
1.67
0.67
2.40
2.20
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.83
1.50
1.79
1.38
1.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.06
2.00
1.22
1.56
0.88
2.50
vs Weaker (13)
1.92
1.62
2.00
2.20
1.88
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.9%
@ 1.04-4.4%
Under 1.5
13.1%
@ 11.00+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Under
Betfair
11.00
1xBet
11.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
67.2%
@ 1.17-10.9%
Under 2.5
32.8%
@ 4.17+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Under
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.5%
@ 1.48-16.2%
Under 3.5
54.5%
@ 2.39+16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.52
Superbet
1.51
Betfair
1.50
1xBet
1.45
Under
Pinnacle
2.59
Betfair
2.55
Marathonbet
2.52
1xBet
2.52
Superbet
2.32
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.8%
@ 1.23-7.1%
No
32.2%
@ 3.66+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
No
BetVictor
4.00
Betfair
3.70
1xBet
3.70
William Hil
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%@ 11.00+6.2%
1-2
9.0%@ 9.17+4.3%
2-1
7.0%@ 14.83+4.1%
2-2
6.8%@ 10.33+2.6%
0-2
6.0%@ 13.83+2.9%
1-3
5.9%@ 10.17+1.7%
0-1
5.2%@ 17.00+2.7%
2-3
4.4%@ 12.17+0.9%
FC Tallinn goals ↓
Flora II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
5.2%
6.0%
3.9%
1.9%
1
3.8%
10%
9.0%
5.9%
2.9%
2
3.6%
7.0%
6.8%
4.4%
2.2%
3
1.8%
3.5%
3.4%
2.2%
1.1%
4
0.7%
1.3%
1.3%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Tallinn goals (down), columns = Flora II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tallinna Kalev
2.17
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.86
Maardu
1.71
Tartu Welco
1.50
Viimsi
1.43
FC Tallinn
1.33
Nõmme United II
1.14
Flora II
1.11
Nõmme Kalju II
0.25
FC Tallinn is 0.22 points better than Flora II in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.67
Viimsi
2.14
FCI Levadia II
2.14
Tallinna Kalev
2.00
Maardu
1.86
Elva
1.86
Flora II
1.67
Nõmme United II
1.14
FC Tallinn
0.83
Nõmme Kalju II
0.62
FC Tallinn is 0.83 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
1.00
FC Tallinn
1.00
Tallinna Kalev
1.00
Viimsi
1.43
Nõmme United II
1.57
Tartu Welco
1.67
Flora II
1.67
FCI Levadia II
2.00
Maardu
2.14
Nõmme Kalju II
2.88
FC Tallinn is 0.67 goals better than Flora II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.97
0.47
1.00
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
1.20
0.67
1.17
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.08
0.33
1.17
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.50
0.33
0.33
1.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.64
0.79
0.81
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.47
1.18
0.56
0.89
0.38
1.50
vs Weaker (13)
1.08
0.46
0.80
0.60
1.25
0.38
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.9%
1.04
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
-4.4%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
Tallinna Kalev
FCI Levadia II
Maardu
Viimsi
Tartu Welco
Nõmme United II
Nõmme Kalju II