PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

FC Tallinn vs Maardu Prediction & Stats

Date: 10/09/2026
Time: 14:30
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Vs
23%
24%
53%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Maardu
Maardu
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model favours an away win, with a 53% chance for Maardu, a 23% chance for FC Tallinn and a 24% chance of a draw. The expected total of 3.1 goals points to a lively encounter, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.1% probability. FC Tallinn, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded, while Maardu, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 3.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Under 6.5 (95.8%), Away +2 handicap (90.6%), Under 5.5 (90.0%), Home under 2.5 goals (87.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (86.8%) and Away over 0.5 goals (85.6%). FC Tallinn’s recent form shows a 2-game losing streak, while Maardu comes off a 2-game winning run. The match is likely to see Maardu edge out a narrow victory.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Tallinn win
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maardu win
53.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L20W41W10W11D01L11D12L02L21WH·ELV11/07A·TAR18/07H·TAL28/07H·FLO01/08A·TAL08/08A·MAA15/08H·NÕM20/08A·FCI23/08H·NÕM29/08A·VII03/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.971.601.801.802.13
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (26)1.581.961.211.862.002.08
vs Weaker (3)3.332.337.001.001.503.00
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MaarduMaardu

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-832W18L31W41W12L10W01L31W42WH·FLO09/07H·TAR13/07A·FLO18/07A·NÕM01/08H·VII08/08H·FC 15/08A·ELV20/08A·TAL24/08H·FCI29/08
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.222.002.002.802.501.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)2.002.672.253.501.501.00
vs Weaker (3)2.670.671.000.003.501.00
Clean sheet %11% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.2%
Under 1.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.9%
Under 2.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.6%
Under 3.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.0%
No
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.1%
0-1
7.3%
1-3
6.3%
2-1
6.1%
2-2
5.9%
0-0
5.3%
FC Tallinn goals ↓
Maardu goals →
01234
05.3%7.3%8.1%5.2%2.5%
14.2%11%9.8%6.3%3.1%
23.1%6.1%5.9%3.8%1.8%
31.3%2.4%2.4%1.5%0.7%
40.4%0.7%0.7%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Tallinn goals (down), columns = Maardu goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
FC Tallinn is 0.78 points worse than Maardu in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
FC Tallinn is 1.33 goals worse than Maardu in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 2.22).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
FC Tallinn is 0.78 goals better than Maardu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Tallinn or Draw
46.6%
Avg Implied -
23%
24%
53%
covers FC Tallinn + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn or Maardu
76.0%
Avg Implied -
23%
24%
53%
covers FC Tallinn + Maardu
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Maardu
77.5%
Avg Implied -
23%
24%
53%
covers Draw + Maardu
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5
Over
70.1%
Under
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5
Over
34.0%
Under
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 0.5
Over
85.6%
Under
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5
Over
57.8%
Under
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5
Over
30.7%
Under
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 3.5
Over
13.2%
Under
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to FC Tallinn, so a minus line means FC Tallinn give that many goals of a start and Maardu receive them. At -1, FC Tallinn must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Tallinn win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Tallinn)
FC Tallinn -2
3.0%
Draw -2
6.4%
Maardu +2
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Tallinn)
FC Tallinn -1
9.4%
Draw -1
13.1%
Maardu +1
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Tallinn)
FC Tallinn +1
46.6%
Draw +1
21.7%
Maardu -1
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Tallinn)
FC Tallinn +2
68.3%
Draw +2
16.6%
Maardu -2
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L20W00D00D11D01L11D11D01L01LH·ELV11/07A·TAR18/07H·TAL28/07H·FLO01/08A·TAL08/08A·MAA15/08H·NÕM20/08A·FCI23/08H·NÕM29/08A·VII03/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.000.401.070.670.93
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (26)0.461.040.291.070.671.00
vs Weaker (3)1.330.672.001.001.000.50
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MaarduMaardu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W14L00D11D11D10W00D20W22DH·FLO09/07H·TAR13/07A·FLO18/07A·NÕM01/08H·VII08/08H·FC 15/08A·ELV20/08A·TAL24/08H·FCI29/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.111.001.401.600.750.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.001.331.502.000.000.00
vs Weaker (3)1.330.331.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %44% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.1%
Under 0.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.0%
Under 1.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.8%
Under 2.5
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.4%
Under
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.6%
Under
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D41W10W00D00D00D01L01L20WH·ELV11/07A·TAR18/07H·TAL28/07H·FLO01/08A·TAL08/08A·MAA15/08H·NÕM20/08A·FCI23/08H·NÕM29/08A·VII03/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.971.200.731.131.20
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (26)1.120.920.930.791.331.08
vs Weaker (3)2.001.675.000.000.502.50
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MaarduMaardu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D04L31W30W01L00D01L11D20WH·FLO09/07H·TAR13/07A·FLO18/07A·NÕM01/08H·VII08/08H·FC 15/08A·ELV20/08A·TAL24/08H·FCI29/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.111.000.601.201.750.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.001.330.751.501.501.00
vs Weaker (3)1.330.330.000.002.000.50
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.9%
Under 0.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.7%
Under 1.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.4%
Under 2.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.6%
Under
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.5%-------
Away under 2.5 HT goals97.4%-------
Home under 2.5 HT goals97.3%-------
Home under 3.5 goals96.6%-------
Under 6.595.8%-------
Home under 2.5 2H goals95.7%-------
Away under 2.5 2H goals92.4%-------
Away +2 handicap90.6%-------
Under 5.590.0%-------
Home under 2.5 goals87.8%-------
Home under 1.5 HT goals87.2%-------
Away under 3.5 goals86.8%-------
Away over 0.5 goals85.6%-------
Home under 1.5 2H goals85.2%-------
Under 2.5 HT goals85.2%-------
Away under 1.5 HT goals84.7%-------
Over 1.583.2%-------
Over 0.5 2H goals80.9%-------
Under 4.579.0%-------
Draw or Away77.5%-------
Away +1 handicap77.5%-------
Away under 1.5 2H goals77.3%-------
Over 0.5 HT goals76.1%-------
Home or Away76.0%-------
Under 2.5 2H goals75.6%-------
Home over 0.5 goals70.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
FT wins
0
Draws
1
MAA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Tallinn vs Maardu · H/A from FT
DateH/AGameScore
15/08/26AMaardu Vs FT1-0

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26AViimsi Vs FT1-2
29/08/26HFT Vs Nõmme Kalju II0-2
23/08/26AFCI Levadia II Vs FT2-1
20/08/26HFT Vs Nõmme United II1-1
15/08/26AMaardu Vs FT1-0
08/08/26ATallinna Kalev Vs FT1-1
01/08/26HFT Vs Flora II1-0
28/07/26HFT Vs Tallinna FC Zapoos4-1
18/07/26ATartu Welco Vs FT0-2
11/07/26HFT Vs Elva0-3

MaarduMaardu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HMAA Vs FCI Levadia II4-2
24/08/26ATallinna Kalev Vs MAA1-3
20/08/26AElva Vs MAA1-0
15/08/26HMAA Vs FC Tallinn1-0
08/08/26HMAA Vs Viimsi1-2
01/08/26ANõmme Kalju II Vs MAA1-4
18/07/26AFlora II Vs MAA1-3
13/07/26HMAA Vs Tartu Welco1-8
09/07/26HMAA Vs Flora II3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLW1.24
HomeLWWDL1.25
AwayWDLLW1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%33%35%
AVG goals3.683.294.04
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %62%54%69%
Over 3.5 %46%38%54%
Scored1.801.711.88
Conceded1.881.582.15
BTTS60%62%58%
Clean Sheet18%21%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Maardu
Maardu
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW2.00
HomeWLLWW1.80
AwayWWLW2.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%60%75%
AVG goals4.224.803.50
Over 1.5 %78%80%75%
Over 2.5 %78%80%75%
Over 3.5 %67%60%75%
Scored2.222.002.50
Conceded2.002.801.00
BTTS78%80%75%
Clean Sheet11%20%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElvaElva918
56%
2.0
147+7
2.3
56%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.8
-
2MaarduMaardu918
67%
2.0
2018+2
4.2
78%
78%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.0
-
3ViimsiViimsi1016
50%
1.6
2314+9
3.7
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II916
56%
1.8
1919+0
4.2
100%
89%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II1114
36%
1.3
2015+5
3.2
82%
73%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
6Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev813
50%
1.6
1314-1
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
7Tartu WelcoTartu Welco812
50%
1.5
2115+6
4.5
100%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.9
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn911
33%
1.2
811-3
2.1
78%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
9Nõmme United IINõmme United II98
22%
0.9
916-7
2.8
89%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
10Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II105
10%
0.5
927-18
3.6
100%
70%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.7
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

← all matches