FC Tallinn’s recent slump of two consecutive defeats has left them looking to rebound, while Nõmme Kalju II, after a solitary win, are eager to keep their momentum. The model favours a home win, with a 50% chance, a 24% chance of a draw and 26% for an away victory. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a lively encounter, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 with an 10.8% probability. FC Tallinn, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.36 goals scored and 1.82 conceded, whereas Nõmme Kalju II, on the road, averages 1.67 scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selection, Over 1.5, carries an 84.9% chance of success. In summary, a 50% home win, 24% draw, 26% away win, 3.3 expected goals, 1-1 most likely score, and an 84.9% chance of over 1.5 goals.
Results analysis
After a shaky start, FC Tallinn’s form has steadied, extending a run that had stalled with two straight defeats, while Nõmme Kalju II’s recent five matches show a win followed by four losses. The model predicted a home win with a 50% chance, and that call proved correct as FC Tallinn triumphed 7-0. The expected total of 3.3 goals was far surpassed, yet the model’s single selection, Over 1.5, hit with an 84.9% probability. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 (10.8%) and the 3-goal total (22%) were both missed, but the dominant home victory confirmed the model’s overall assessment.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Tallinn win✓ Hit
49.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II win✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.80
1.29
1.71
1.25
1.88
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.75
0.00
1.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.29
1.83
1.36
1.82
1.23
1.85
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.50
3.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
3.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
2.54
1.29
2.71
1.17
2.33
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
3.40
1.33
3.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (7)
1.43
2.29
1.25
2.50
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
8% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.9%
Under 1.5
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.8%
Under 2.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.7%
Under 3.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.5%
No
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.9%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.2%
3-1
6.0%
0-0
4.7%
FC Tallinn goals ↓
Nõmme Kalju II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
4.1%
3.5%
1.6%
0.5%
1
6.2%
11%
6.7%
3.0%
1.0%
2
6.9%
9.4%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.4%
6.0%
4.1%
1.9%
0.6%
4
2.1%
2.9%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Tallinn goals (down), columns = Nõmme Kalju II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nõmme United
2.56
Viimsi
2.17
Tartu Welco
1.75
Elva
1.61
Flora II
1.33
Nõmme Kalju II
1.25
FCI Levadia II
1.25
FC Tallinn
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Tallinna Kalev II
0.75
Luunja
0.28
FC Tallinn is 0.14 points worse than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.47
Viimsi
2.31
Tartu Welco
2.11
Elva
1.72
FCI Levadia II
1.72
Flora II
1.69
FC Tallinn
1.66
Nõmme Kalju II
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
1.47
Luunja
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
FC Tallinn is 0.10 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals scored per game (1.66 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nõmme United
0.75
Viimsi
0.75
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.56
Flora II
1.56
Elva
1.64
FCI Levadia II
1.86
FC Tallinn
2.03
Nõmme Kalju II
2.19
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Luunja
3.81
FC Tallinn is 0.17 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.03 vs 2.19).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.93
0.57
0.86
0.44
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.96
0.55
1.00
0.31
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.46
1.00
0.57
1.29
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.67
1.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
31% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.87
0.71
0.86
0.81
0.88
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.88
0.82
0.82
0.92
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.54
0.71
1.43
0.83
1.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.00
0.67
1.33
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.43
0.75
1.50
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Nõmme United
Viimsi
Tartu Welco
Elva
Flora II
FCI Levadia II
Tallinna Kalev II
Luunja
Phoenix