PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

FC Tallinn vs Nõmme Kalju II Result & Analysis

Date: 27/09/2025
Time: 09:30
Final 2-1
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Vs
44%
23%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

FC Tallinn’s recent form, after two straight defeats, suggests a cautious start, yet the model still favours a home win with a 44% probability. The predicted outcome is a 1-1 draw only 23% likely, while a 33% chance of a Nõmme Kalju II victory remains. The expected total of 3.7 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most likely total being three goals at 21%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.2% chance. FC Tallinn, playing at home against a similarly-tier opponent, averages 1.64 goals scored and 1.82 conceded, whereas Nõmme Kalju II, on the road, scores 1.57 and concedes 2.86. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 (89.4%), BTTS Yes (71.8%) and Over 2.5 (71.8%). The final result will be a 2-1 home win.

Results analysis

The match saw FC Tallinn’s form story continue, with a win extending their run after two straight defeats. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win at 44 percent, and the result confirmed that call. The final score was 2-1, a home victory that matched the predicted outcome. The model’s selections all hit: Over 1.5 goals came through at 89.4 percent, BTTS Yes at 71.8 percent, and Over 2.5 goals also at 71.8 percent. Each probability is expressed as a percentage, and every pick’s result is noted. The predictions proved accurate, with the favoured result and the selections largely coming in as forecast.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Tallinn win✓ Hit
43.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II win✗ Miss
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-620W65W23L01L12L02L06L22D23L22DH·LUU19/07A·FCI26/07H·FLO02/08A·NÕM09/08H·ELV16/08H·TAR23/08A·NÕM31/08A·TAL12/09H·FCI18/09A·TAR21/09
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.702.001.641.641.752.31
vs Stronger (3)0.672.330.002.001.002.50
vs Similar (24)1.712.081.641.821.772.31
vs Weaker (3)2.671.002.500.503.002.00
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L21W22D10W22D12L11D33D30W04LH·TAR19/07A·FLO26/07H·VII04/08H·FC 09/08A·TAL16/08A·NÕM23/08H·ELV30/08A·FCI15/09H·FLO18/09H·NÕM22/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.522.281.442.251.622.31
vs Stronger (10)1.202.301.502.330.752.25
vs Similar (16)1.382.621.222.441.572.86
vs Weaker (3)3.330.333.000.003.500.50
Clean sheet %17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%16%21%3%07%118%221%319%414%517%6+
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.4%
Under 1.5
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
71.8%
Under 2.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.0%
Under 3.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
71.8%
No
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.2%
2-1 ✓
8.3%
1-2
7.2%
2-2
7.2%
3-1
5.5%
2-0
4.8%
3-2
4.8%
1-3
4.2%
FC Tallinn goals ↓
Nõmme Kalju II goals →
01234
03.3%3.4%3.6%2.1%0.9%
14.0%9.2%7.2%4.2%1.8%
24.8%8.3%7.2%4.1%1.8%
33.2%5.5%4.8%2.7%1.2%
41.6%2.7%2.4%1.4%0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Tallinn goals (down), columns = Nõmme Kalju II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nõmme United
2.56
Viimsi
2.17
Tartu Welco
1.75
Elva
1.61
Flora II
1.33
Nõmme Kalju II
1.25
FCI Levadia II
1.25
FC Tallinn
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Tallinna Kalev II
0.75
Luunja
0.28
FC Tallinn is 0.14 points worse than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.47
Viimsi
2.31
Tartu Welco
2.11
Elva
1.72
FCI Levadia II
1.72
Flora II
1.69
FC Tallinn
1.66
Nõmme Kalju II
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
1.47
Luunja
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
FC Tallinn is 0.10 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals scored per game (1.66 vs 1.56).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nõmme United
0.75
Viimsi
0.75
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.56
Flora II
1.56
Elva
1.64
FCI Levadia II
1.86
FC Tallinn
2.03
Nõmme Kalju II
2.19
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Luunja
3.81
FC Tallinn is 0.17 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.03 vs 2.19).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W43W12L00D10W02L03L11D02L12LH·LUU19/07A·FCI26/07H·FLO02/08A·NÕM09/08H·ELV16/08H·TAR23/08A·NÕM31/08A·TAL12/09H·FCI18/09A·TAR21/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.100.570.860.811.31
vs Stronger (3)0.670.670.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.581.170.451.000.691.31
vs Weaker (3)1.671.001.500.502.002.00
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L00D10W01L00D21W00D02LH·TAR19/07A·FLO26/07H·VII04/08H·FC 09/08A·TAL16/08A·NÕM23/08H·ELV30/08A·FCI15/09H·FLO18/09H·NÕM22/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.660.760.560.940.770.54
vs Stronger (10)0.300.800.331.000.250.50
vs Similar (16)0.560.880.561.000.570.71
vs Weaker (3)2.330.002.000.002.500.00
Clean sheet %45% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W22D11D01L02L00D03L11D21W10WH·LUU19/07A·FCI26/07H·FLO02/08A·NÕM09/08H·ELV16/08H·TAR23/08A·NÕM31/08A·TAL12/09H·FCI18/09A·TAR21/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.901.070.790.941.00
vs Stronger (3)0.001.670.002.000.001.50
vs Similar (24)1.120.921.180.821.081.00
vs Weaker (3)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L21W21W10W12L11D11D12L30W02LH·TAR19/07A·FLO26/07H·VII04/08H·FC 09/08A·TAL16/08A·NÕM23/08H·ELV30/08A·FCI15/09H·FLO18/09H·NÕM22/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.861.520.881.310.851.77
vs Stronger (10)0.901.501.171.330.501.75
vs Similar (16)0.811.750.671.441.002.14
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.001.000.50
Clean sheet %24% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.589.4%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes71.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.571.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
FT wins
0
Draws
1
NKI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Tallinn vs Nõmme Kalju II · H/A from FT
DateH/AGameScore
09/08/25ANõmme Kalju II Vs FT1-0
03/06/25HFT Vs Nõmme Kalju II7-0
20/04/25ANõmme Kalju II Vs FT2-4

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/09/25ATartu Welco Vs FT2-2
18/09/25HFT Vs FCI Levadia II2-3
12/09/25ATallinna Kalev II Vs FT2-2
31/08/25ANõmme United Vs FT6-0
23/08/25HFT Vs Tartu Welco0-2
16/08/25HFT Vs Elva1-2
09/08/25ANõmme Kalju II Vs FT1-0
02/08/25HFT Vs Flora II2-3
26/07/25AFCI Levadia II Vs FT5-6
19/07/25HFT Vs Luunja2-0

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/25HNKI Vs Nõmme United0-4
18/09/25HNKI Vs Flora II3-0
15/09/25AFCI Levadia II Vs NKI3-3
30/08/25HNKI Vs Elva1-1
23/08/25ANõmme United Vs NKI2-1
16/08/25ATallinna Kalev II Vs NKI2-2
09/08/25HNKI Vs FC Tallinn1-0
04/08/25HNKI Vs Viimsi2-2
26/07/25AFlora II Vs NKI1-2
19/07/25HNKI Vs Tartu Welco0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLD1.12
HomeWLLLL0.96
AwayWLLDD1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%25%35%
AVG goals3.363.253.46
Over 1.5 %88%92%85%
Over 2.5 %58%54%62%
Over 3.5 %44%38%50%
Scored1.561.541.58
Conceded1.801.711.88
BTTS58%62%54%
Clean Sheet18%17%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWL1.21
HomeDWDWL1.12
AwayWWDLD1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%31%38%
AVG goals3.793.693.92
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %79%75%85%
Over 3.5 %48%50%46%
Scored1.521.441.62
Conceded2.282.252.31
BTTS55%50%62%
Clean Sheet17%19%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3692
83%
2.6
12527+98
4.2
92%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.50.8
-
2ViimsiViimsi3678
67%
2.2
8327+56
3.1
81%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.8
-
3Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3663
50%
1.8
7656+20
3.7
86%
72%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.6
-
4ElvaElva3658
47%
1.6
6259+3
3.4
86%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
5Flora IIFlora II3648
36%
1.3
6156+5
3.2
83%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
6FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3645
33%
1.2
6267-5
3.6
89%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
7Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II3645
36%
1.2
5679-23
3.8
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn3842
29%
1.1
6377-14
3.7
89%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
9Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3627
14%
0.8
5396-43
4.1
94%
81%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.7
-
10LuunjaLuunja3610
8%
0.3
40137-97
4.9
89%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.13.8
-
11PhoenixPhoenix22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

← all matches