The contest between FC Tallinn and Tallinna Kalev is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 33% for a home victory, 26% for a draw and 41% for an away win. The expected total of goals is three, yet the most likely total is two with a 23% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, occurring with a 12.2% probability.
FC Tallinn, playing at home against a weaker side, averages two goals scored and none conceded. Tallinna Kalev, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 1.3 goals scored and 3.3 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Under 6.5 (96.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.2%), Under 5.5 (91.5%), Away +2 handicap (84.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (82.9%) and Over 1.5 (81.4%). All probabilities are expressed as percentages. The recent form shows FC Tallinn after two straight defeats, losing 0-2 to Nõmme Kalju II, while Tallinna Kalev also lost 0-5 to Flora II, adding to the uncertainty of the match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Tallinn win
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev win
40.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.97
1.60
1.80
1.80
2.13
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.58
1.96
1.21
1.86
2.00
2.08
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
2.33
7.00
1.00
1.50
3.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tallinna Kalev
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
2.50
1.62
2.08
2.00
2.82
vs Stronger (17)
1.35
3.06
1.50
2.38
1.22
3.67
vs Similar (12)
2.00
1.92
1.80
1.60
2.14
2.14
vs Weaker (1)
8.00
0.00
-
-
8.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.0%
Under 2.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.6%
Under 3.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.6%
No
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
6.3%
0-2
6.2%
0-0
6.0%
1-0
5.9%
FC Tallinn goals ↓
Tallinna Kalev goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
6.7%
6.2%
3.3%
1.3%
1
5.9%
12%
8.9%
4.7%
1.9%
2
4.9%
7.9%
6.3%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.3%
3.7%
3.0%
1.6%
0.6%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Tallinn goals (down), columns = Tallinna Kalev goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
FC Tallinn is 0.40 points worse than Tallinna Kalev in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
FC Tallinn is 0.74 goals worse than Tallinna Kalev in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
FC Tallinn is 0.53 goals better than Tallinna Kalev in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Tallinn or Draw
59.3%
Avg Implied -
33%
26%
41%
covers FC Tallinn + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn or Tallinna Kalev
73.6%
Avg Implied -
33%
26%
41%
covers FC Tallinn + Tallinna Kalev
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tallinna Kalev
67.0%
Avg Implied -
33%
26%
41%
covers Draw + Tallinna Kalev
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5
Over
79.7%
Under
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5
Over
47.4%
Under
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 3.5
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Tallinn, so a minus line means FC Tallinn give that many goals of a start and Tallinna Kalev receive them. At -1, FC Tallinn must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Tallinn win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Tallinn)
FC Tallinn -2
5.7%
Draw -2
9.9%
Tallinna Kalev +2
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Tallinn)
FC Tallinn -1
15.6%
Draw -1
17.3%
Tallinna Kalev +1
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Tallinn)
FC Tallinn +1
59.3%
Draw +1
19.6%
Tallinna Kalev -1
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Tallinn)
FC Tallinn +2
79.0%
Draw +2
12.5%
Tallinna Kalev -2
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.40
1.07
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.46
1.04
0.29
1.07
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tallinna Kalev
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.20
0.77
0.85
0.71
1.47
vs Stronger (17)
0.47
1.76
0.62
1.12
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.97
1.20
0.73
1.13
1.20
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.12
0.92
0.93
0.79
1.33
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.67
5.00
0.00
0.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tallinna Kalev
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
0.85
1.23
1.29
1.35
vs Stronger (17)
0.88
1.29
0.88
1.25
0.89
1.33
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.42
0.80
1.20
1.14
1.57
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
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Elva
Maardu
Viimsi
FCI Levadia II
Flora II
Tartu Welco
Nõmme United II
Nõmme Kalju II