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FC Tallinn vs Tartu Welco Result & Analysis

Date: 05/07/2025
Time: 12:00
Final 1-5
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Vs
34%
26%
40%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Tallinn winâś— Miss
34.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco winâś“ Hit
39.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-711D11D04L02L11D32W70W10W20W30WH·ELV24/04H·TAL04/05A·NĂ•M10/05H·VII17/05A·ELV22/05A·LUU29/05H·NĂ•M03/06H·FLO14/06A·FCI19/06A·TAL30/06
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.501.501.291.501.69
vs Stronger (4)0.251.750.001.500.502.00
vs Similar (24)1.581.461.641.271.541.62
vs Weaker (2)3.001.503.001.003.002.00
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W31W40W10W11D42W33D21W25L01LH·FCI20/04H·VII26/04A·NĂ•M01/05A·LUU11/05H·NĂ•M15/05H·FLO25/05A·FCI29/05A·TAL02/06H·ELV14/06H·NĂ•M19/06
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.302.071.401.871.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.711.351.881.381.561.33
vs Weaker (13)2.311.232.291.432.331.00
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%5%012%123%222%317%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.5%
Under 2.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.1%
Under 3.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.5%
No
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.1%
0-2
5.8%
1-0
5.5%
0-0
5.4%
FC Tallinn goals ↓
Tartu Welco goals →
01234
05.4%6.1%5.8%3.1%1.3%
15.5%12%8.7%4.7%1.9%
24.9%8.0%6.5%3.5%1.4%
32.5%4.0%3.3%1.8%0.7%
40.9%1.5%1.2%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Tallinn goals (down), columns = Tartu Welco goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nõmme United
2.56
Viimsi
2.17
Tartu Welco
1.75
Elva
1.61
Flora II
1.33
Nõmme Kalju II
1.25
FCI Levadia II
1.25
FC Tallinn
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Tallinna Kalev II
0.75
Luunja
0.28
FC Tallinn is 0.64 points worse than Tartu Welco in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.75).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.47
Viimsi
2.31
Tartu Welco
2.11
Elva
1.72
FCI Levadia II
1.72
Flora II
1.69
FC Tallinn
1.66
Nõmme Kalju II
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
1.47
Luunja
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
FC Tallinn is 0.45 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals scored per game (1.66 vs 2.11).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nõmme United
0.75
Viimsi
0.75
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.56
Flora II
1.56
Elva
1.64
FCI Levadia II
1.86
FC Tallinn
2.03
Nõmme Kalju II
2.19
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Luunja
3.81
FC Tallinn is 0.47 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals conceded per game (2.03 vs 1.56).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L02L00D00D22D10W10W10W20WH·ELV24/04H·TAL04/05A·NĂ•M10/05H·VII17/05A·ELV22/05A·LUU29/05H·NĂ•M03/06H·FLO14/06A·FCI19/06A·TAL30/06
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.770.500.570.620.94
vs Stronger (4)0.250.500.000.000.501.00
vs Similar (24)0.500.750.450.640.540.85
vs Weaker (2)2.001.502.001.002.002.00
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D20W00D01L31W11D11D14L01LH·FCI20/04H·VII26/04A·NĂ•M01/05A·LUU11/05H·NĂ•M15/05H·FLO25/05A·FCI29/05A·TAL02/06H·ELV14/06H·NĂ•M19/06
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.800.800.870.600.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.650.760.880.880.440.67
vs Weaker (13)0.770.850.710.860.830.83
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W10W02L02L11D10W60W00D10W10WH·ELV24/04H·TAL04/05A·NĂ•M10/05H·VII17/05A·ELV22/05A·LUU29/05H·NĂ•M03/06H·FLO14/06A·FCI19/06A·TAL30/06
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.731.000.710.880.75
vs Stronger (4)0.001.250.001.500.001.00
vs Similar (24)1.080.711.180.641.000.77
vs Weaker (2)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W20W10W10W11D22D10W11D00DH·FCI20/04H·VII26/04A·NĂ•M01/05A·LUU11/05H·NĂ•M15/05H·FLO25/05A·FCI29/05A·TAL02/06H·ELV14/06H·NĂ•M19/06
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.501.270.531.270.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.060.591.000.501.110.67
vs Weaker (13)1.540.381.570.571.500.17
Clean sheet %60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.0%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
0
FT wins
2
Draws
3
TW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Tallinn vs Tartu Welco · H/A from FT
DateH/AGameScore
29/03/25ATartu Welco Vs FT3-1
03/11/24ATartu Welco Vs FT1-1
20/08/24HFT Vs Tartu Welco1-3
14/06/24HFT Vs Tartu Welco1-1
16/03/24ATartu Welco Vs FT3-0

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/06/25ATallinna Kalev II Vs FT0-3
19/06/25AFCI Levadia II Vs FT0-2
14/06/25HFT Vs Flora II1-0
03/06/25HFT Vs Nõmme Kalju II7-0
29/05/25ALuunja Vs FT2-3
22/05/25AElva Vs FT1-1
17/05/25HFT Vs Viimsi0-2
10/05/25ANõmme United Vs FT4-0
04/05/25HFT Vs Tallinna Kalev II1-1
24/04/25HFT Vs Elva1-1

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/06/25HTW Vs Nõmme Kalju II0-1
14/06/25HTW Vs Elva2-5
02/06/25ATallinna Kalev II Vs TW1-2
29/05/25AFCI Levadia II Vs TW3-3
25/05/25HTW Vs Flora II4-2
15/05/25HTW Vs Nõmme United1-1
11/05/25ALuunja Vs TW0-1
01/05/25ANõmme Kalju II Vs TW0-4
26/04/25HTW Vs Viimsi3-1
20/04/25HTW Vs FCI Levadia II1-0

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.48
HomeDDLWW1.32
AwayLDWWW1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%36%48%
AVG goals3.343.683.00
Over 1.5 %86%92%80%
Over 2.5 %58%60%56%
Over 3.5 %46%48%44%
Scored1.862.161.56
Conceded1.481.521.44
BTTS58%64%52%
Clean Sheet24%20%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLL1.76
HomeWDWLL1.58
AwayDWWDW1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%42%54%
AVG goals3.363.503.21
Over 1.5 %78%81%75%
Over 2.5 %60%62%58%
Over 3.5 %48%50%46%
Scored2.021.962.08
Conceded1.341.541.12
BTTS64%65%62%
Clean Sheet28%23%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3692
83%
2.6
12527+98
4.2
92%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.50.8
-
2ViimsiViimsi3678
67%
2.2
8327+56
3.1
81%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.8
-
3Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3663
50%
1.8
7656+20
3.7
86%
72%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.6
-
4ElvaElva3658
47%
1.6
6259+3
3.4
86%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
5Flora IIFlora II3648
36%
1.3
6156+5
3.2
83%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
6FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3645
33%
1.2
6267-5
3.6
89%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
7Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II3645
36%
1.2
5679-23
3.8
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn3842
29%
1.1
6377-14
3.7
89%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
9Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3627
14%
0.8
5396-43
4.1
94%
81%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.7
-
10LuunjaLuunja3610
8%
0.3
40137-97
4.9
89%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.13.8
-
11PhoenixPhoenix22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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