FC Tallinn’s recent form shows a team that struggles to keep the ball, having lost two of its last three matches and conceding 2.15 goals on average at home. Tartu Welco, on the other hand, has been more potent away, scoring 2.5 goals per game and conceding only 1.7. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 55% probability, and a 22% chance of a draw. The expected total goals is 3.5, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.6% probability. The match is projected to be high-scoring, with the attacking output of Welco and the defensive frailty of Tallinn driving the 3-goal average. The model’s selection set includes Under 7.5 (97.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.3%), Under 6.5 (93.5%), Away +2 handicap (90.2%), Away over 0.5 goals (88.5%), Over 1.5 (87.3%), Under 5.5 (85.8%) and Home under 2.5 goals (84.8%). The probabilities for the match result are 22% for a home win, 22% for a draw and 55% for an away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Tallinn win
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco win
55.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.97
1.60
1.80
1.80
2.13
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.58
1.96
1.21
1.86
2.00
2.08
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
2.33
7.00
1.00
1.50
3.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tartu Welco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.0
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.63
1.70
2.43
1.64
2.81
1.75
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
5.00
-
-
1.00
5.00
vs Similar (20)
2.60
1.65
2.27
1.73
3.00
1.56
vs Weaker (9)
2.89
1.44
3.00
1.33
2.83
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.3%
Under 1.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.9%
Under 2.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.3%
Under 3.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.1%
No
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
7.1%
1-3
6.8%
2-2
6.3%
2-1
5.9%
0-1
5.7%
0-3
5.1%
FC Tallinn goals ↓
Tartu Welco goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
5.7%
7.1%
5.1%
2.7%
1
3.2%
9.6%
9.4%
6.8%
3.7%
2
2.7%
5.9%
6.3%
4.6%
2.5%
3
1.2%
2.6%
2.8%
2.0%
1.1%
4
0.4%
0.9%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Tallinn goals (down), columns = Tartu Welco goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
FC Tallinn is 0.28 points worse than Tartu Welco in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
FC Tallinn is 1.74 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 2.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
FC Tallinn is 0.65 goals better than Tartu Welco in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Tallinn or Draw
44.7%
Avg Implied -
22%
22%
55%
covers FC Tallinn + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn or Tartu Welco
77.7%
Avg Implied -
22%
22%
55%
covers FC Tallinn + Tartu Welco
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tartu Welco
77.6%
Avg Implied -
22%
22%
55%
covers Draw + Tartu Welco
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5
Over
73.8%
Under
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5
Over
38.7%
Under
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5
Over
88.5%
Under
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5
Over
63.6%
Under
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5
Over
36.6%
Under
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 3.5
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Tallinn, so a minus line means FC Tallinn give that many goals of a start and Tartu Welco receive them. At -1, FC Tallinn must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Tallinn win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Tallinn)
FC Tallinn -2
3.3%
Draw -2
6.5%
Tartu Welco +2
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Tallinn)
FC Tallinn -1
9.8%
Draw -1
12.6%
Tartu Welco +1
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Tallinn)
FC Tallinn +1
44.7%
Draw +1
20.9%
Tartu Welco -1
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Tallinn)
FC Tallinn +2
65.6%
Draw +2
16.8%
Tartu Welco -2
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.40
1.07
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.46
1.04
0.29
1.07
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tartu Welco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.07
1.00
1.00
1.31
1.12
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.10
1.00
1.00
1.56
1.22
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.78
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.97
1.20
0.73
1.13
1.20
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.12
0.92
0.93
0.79
1.33
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.67
5.00
0.00
0.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tartu Welco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.63
1.43
0.64
1.50
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.35
0.55
1.27
0.73
1.44
0.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.89
0.67
2.00
0.33
1.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
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Elva
Maardu
Viimsi
FCI Levadia II
Flora II
Tallinna Kalev
Nõmme United II
Nõmme Kalju II