FC Thun host BSC Young Boys in the Switzerland: Super League on August 1st. The home side's recent form has been concerning, coming off a defeat to FC Basel 1893, but they have a relatively strong home record against similar opponents, scoring 1.71 goals on average and conceding 2.29. Meanwhile, BSC Young Boys have been unbeaten in their last 5 away matches, but their away form is less impressive, scoring 2.33 goals on average and conceding 2.83.
The model predicts a home win for FC Thun, with a 44% chance of victory, 21% chance of a draw, and 35% chance of an away win. The expected total goals is 4.3, with the most likely score being 2-2, occurring 7.2% of the time. The model's selection is the Home win, the favourite match result.
The model also suggests several other selections, including Over 1.5 (93.6%), Over 21.5 fouls (83%), Over 2.5 (80.7% with a 14% edge), BTTS Yes (78.9% with an 11% edge), and Over 3.5 cards (70.1%). The home win percentage is 44%, the draw percentage is 21%, and the away win percentage is 35%.
FC Thun finished 0-6 against BSC Young Boys (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 44% home win, 21% draw and 35% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (94%), Over 19.5 fouls (93%), Over 21.5 fouls (85%), Over 2.5 (81%), Over 23.5 fouls (73%). Missed: Over 2.5 cards (86%), BTTS Yes (79%), Over 3.5 cards (71%).
FC Thun| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.17 | 1.43 | 2.53 | 1.53 | 1.80 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.50 | 1.92 | 1.71 | 2.29 | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 2.65 | 1.00 | 3.25 | 0.88 | 2.11 | 1.11 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
BSC Young Boys| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.10 | 1.80 | 2.31 | 1.38 | 1.86 | 2.29 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (10) | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 2.33 | 2.83 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 2.33 | 1.72 | 2.82 | 1.64 | 1.57 | 1.86 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| BSC Young Boys goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 2.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| 2 | 3.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
FC Thun
BSC Young Boys
FC Thun| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 28.1 | 28.5 | 27.8 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 16.0 | - | 16.0 | 7.0 | - | 7.0 | 29.0 | - | 29.0 |
| vs Similar (16) | 9.0 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 30.6 | 30.0 | 31.2 |
| vs Weaker (33) | 11.3 | 11.5 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 26.4 | 27.5 | 25.4 |
| % over line | 62% | 68% | 57% | 64% | 58% | 69% | 92% | 95% | 90% |
| % under line | 38% | 32% | 43% | 36% | 42% | 31% | 8% | 5% | 10% |
BSC Young Boys| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 24.0 | 23.2 | 24.7 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 6.5 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 22.0 | 21.0 | 23.0 |
| vs Similar (21) | 9.5 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 23.2 | 22.1 | 24.3 |
| vs Weaker (27) | 9.9 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 24.7 | 24.1 | 25.2 |
| % over line | 58% | 68% | 48% | 54% | 52% | 56% | 62% | 52% | 72% |
| % under line | 42% | 32% | 52% | 46% | 48% | 44% | 38% | 48% | 28% |
FC Thun| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.67 | 1.07 | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.42 | 0.58 | 0.43 | 0.71 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 1.24 | 0.76 | 1.62 | 0.75 | 0.89 | 0.78 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
BSC Young Boys| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.87 | 0.88 | 0.50 | 0.64 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 0.89 | 0.83 | 1.09 | 0.64 | 0.57 | 1.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 93.6% | 1.10 | 1.13 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.11 | +9.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 92.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 86.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 84.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 80.7% | 1.39 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.40 | +14.0% | ✓ Hit |
| BTTS Yes | 78.9% | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.36 | +10.7% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 73.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 71.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 8.5 corners | 70.2% | 1.37 | 1.46 | 1.41 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.32 | +3.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/26 | H | 3-8 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/01/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 28/09/25 | A | 4-2 |
FC Thun| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 25/07/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/05/26 | H | 3-8 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-1 |
BSC Young Boys| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 14/05/26 | A | 3-8 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 0-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 8.7 | 33% | 2.7 | 0% | 21.7 | 67% | 69 | 8 | 9 | 52 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 56% |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 5.3 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 8.0 | 33% | 4.0 | 33% | 28.0 | 100% | 83 | 18 | 21 | 44 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 55% |
| 3 | FC ST. Gallen | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 12.0 | 67% | 4.7 | 67% | 26.7 | 67% | 41 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 45% |
| 4 | FC Sion | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 8.7 | 67% | 3.7 | 33% | 21.3 | 33% | 29 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 51% |
| 5 | FC Basel 1893 | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 2.7 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 11.0 | 67% | 5.5 | 100% | 27.7 | 100% | 70 | 37 | 17 | 15 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 55% |
| 6 | Lausanne | 3 | 5 | 33% | 1.7 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 2.3 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 7.7 | 33% | 7.0 | 100% | 31.0 | 100% | 47 | 18 | 9 | 20 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 7 | Servette FC | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 13.0 | 100% | 6.5 | 100% | 24.7 | 100% | 17 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 8 | FC Zurich | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 8.7 | 33% | 4.0 | 67% | 30.3 | 100% | 58 | 23 | 16 | 19 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 51% |
| 9 | FC Thun | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 5.3 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 11.0 | 33% | 3.3 | 67% | 26.0 | 100% | 30 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 46% |
| 10 | Grasshoppers | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 8.7 | 33% | 5.7 | 67% | 24.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 45% |
| 11 | FC Luzern | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 12.7 | 67% | 4.7 | 67% | 22.0 | 67% | 41 | 15 | 5 | 20 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 50% |
| 12 | FC Vaduz | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 12.0 | 100% | 3.7 | 33% | 19.3 | 33% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | 2.7 | - |