FC Thun’s recent win and a 4-3 high-scoring result hint at an attacking game, and the model’s probabilities back a home win at 38%. The draw sits at 24% while Lausanne’s chances are 37%. The expected total of 3.5 goals aligns with the most likely total of three, a 22% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.3% probability, distinct from the total-goals expectation. Thun averages 2.42 goals scored and 2.08 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Lausanne, away, nets only 0.83 and concedes 1.67 against comparable teams. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7% with a 5% edge, Under 7.5 at 97.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.9% with a 6% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.8% with a 4% edge, Under 6.5 at 93.7% with a 2% edge, Over 19.5 fouls at 92.7%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 91.8% with a 3% edge, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 90.6% with a 7% edge.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for FC Thun, failed to materialise as the match finished 0-0, a draw that extended both sides’ recent streaks of mixed results. The model’s call was wrong, its probability 38%. The final score of 0-0 matched the actual result, confirming the unexpected outcome. Every suggested pick was settled: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.6%, Under 7.5 hit at 97.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.0%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 94.1%, Under 6.5 hit at 93.8%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 92.6%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 92.2%, and Away under 3.5 goals hit at 90.4%. All probabilities were expressed as percentages, and the model’s selections were accurately reflected.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Thun win✗ Miss
38.5%
Avg Implied 45.1% · @ 2.07
Edge
-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Dafabet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Draw✓ Hit
24.3%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.50
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.70
BetVictor
3.60
Dafabet
3.60
10Bet
3.55
William Hil
3.50
Lausanne win✗ Miss
37.2%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.30
Edge
+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.56
Bet365
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.38
1xBet
3.38
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Thun
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
2.00
2.62
2.00
1.94
2.00
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
2.00
2.20
2.42
2.08
1.62
2.31
vs Weaker (4)
3.75
0.75
5.00
1.00
3.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
10% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Lausanne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lausanne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.80
1.33
1.87
1.00
1.73
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.09
1.91
1.40
2.20
0.83
1.67
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
1.71
1.25
1.50
1.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Thun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
87.0%
@ 1.18+7.9%
Under 1.5
13.0%
@ 4.45-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Under
Unibet
4.90
Betfair
4.80
Pinnacle
4.70
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
67.2%
@ 1.61+9.5%
Under 2.5
32.8%
@ 2.20-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.65
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.62
BetVictor
1.62
Under
Unibet
2.33
Pinnacle
2.27
10Bet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.5%
@ 2.52+8.4%
Under 3.5
54.5%
@ 1.49-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
1xBet
2.56
Betano
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Under
Unibet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.7%
@ 1.51+7.5%
No
31.3%
@ 2.38-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.55
1xBet
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
No
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.45
10Bet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Betano
2.37
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%@ 6.59+3.4%
2-1
8.2%@ 8.08+2.6%
1-2
8.1%@ 10.51+3.7%
2-2
7.0%@ 10.53+2.7%
2-0
4.8%@ 11.26+0.7%
3-1
4.8%@ 13.59+1.4%
0-2
4.6%@ 17.87+2.1%
1-3
4.6%@ 22.80+2.6%
FC Thun goals ↓
Lausanne goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
4.4%
4.6%
2.6%
1.1%
1
4.5%
10%
8.1%
4.6%
2.0%
2
4.8%
8.2%
7.0%
4.0%
1.7%
3
2.8%
4.8%
4.1%
2.3%
1.0%
4
1.2%
2.1%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Thun goals (down), columns = Lausanne goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Lugano
3.00
BSC Young Boys
2.33
FC Sion
1.80
FC Basel 1893
1.67
FC Thun
1.40
FC ST. Gallen
1.40
FC Luzern
1.33
FC Zurich
1.00
Lausanne
1.00
Grasshoppers
0.80
Servette FC
0.80
FC Vaduz
0.50
FC Thun is 0.40 points better than Lausanne in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BSC Young Boys
3.83
FC Lugano
2.80
FC Sion
2.20
FC Vaduz
2.17
FC ST. Gallen
2.00
FC Basel 1893
1.83
FC Thun
1.80
FC Zurich
1.50
Grasshoppers
1.40
FC Luzern
1.17
Lausanne
1.00
Servette FC
0.80
FC Thun is 0.80 goals better than Lausanne in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Lugano
0.60
Lausanne
1.17
Servette FC
1.20
FC Basel 1893
1.50
FC Luzern
1.67
FC Sion
1.80
BSC Young Boys
1.83
FC ST. Gallen
2.20
Grasshoppers
2.40
FC Zurich
2.67
FC Vaduz
2.67
FC Thun
2.80
FC Thun is 1.63 goals worse than Lausanne in terms of goals conceded per game (2.80 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sion
57%
FC ST. Gallen
56%
FC Lugano
55%
FC Vaduz
53%
Servette FC
53%
Lausanne
51%
FC Basel 1893
49%
BSC Young Boys
49%
FC Thun
46%
Grasshoppers
45%
FC Zurich
44%
FC Luzern
44%
FC Thun is 5.7 percentage points worse than Lausanne in terms of average possession (46% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Thun
For 4.5 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 12.6 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lausanne
For 4.7 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.6 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 14.0 · Total 27.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Thun
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.6
9.9
4.6
4.6
4.5
28.0
28.5
27.6
vs Stronger (1)
16.0
-
16.0
7.0
-
7.0
29.0
-
29.0
vs Similar (40)
10.1
10.6
9.7
4.9
4.9
4.9
28.2
28.2
28.1
vs Weaker (9)
10.0
10.3
9.7
2.9
3.2
2.6
26.8
30.3
23.3
% over line
57%
64%
50%
72%
70%
74%
91%
91%
92%
% under line
43%
36%
50%
28%
30%
26%
9%
9%
8%
This opponent (Lausanne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lausanne
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.2
11.0
5.0
4.5
5.6
24.6
24.0
25.2
vs Stronger (3)
11.0
10.5
12.0
4.3
3.0
7.0
26.7
24.5
31.0
vs Similar (39)
10.6
10.5
10.7
5.0
4.6
5.3
24.4
23.6
25.2
vs Weaker (8)
10.4
8.5
12.2
5.6
5.0
6.2
24.4
25.2
23.5
% over line
66%
56%
76%
78%
64%
92%
76%
72%
80%
% under line
34%
44%
24%
22%
36%
8%
24%
28%
20%
This opponent (FC Thun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Zurich
10.7
Lausanne
10.6
FC ST. Gallen
10.6
FC Luzern
10.5
Servette FC
10.3
FC Thun
10.2
FC Basel 1893
10.2
FC Vaduz
10.0
Grasshoppers
9.8
FC Sion
9.4
BSC Young Boys
9.4
FC Lugano
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC ST. Gallen
5.9
Grasshoppers
5.2
Lausanne
5.0
FC Thun
5.0
FC Zurich
4.9
FC Basel 1893
4.8
FC Vaduz
4.8
FC Lugano
4.7
Servette FC
4.6
FC Luzern
4.6
FC Sion
4.5
BSC Young Boys
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC ST. Gallen
30.4
FC Thun
28.0
FC Zurich
27.5
FC Sion
26.5
FC Basel 1893
26.4
FC Lugano
25.4
Grasshoppers
25.1
Lausanne
24.6
FC Vaduz
24.4
FC Luzern
24.0
Servette FC
23.8
BSC Young Boys
23.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
62.5%
@ 1.85+12.3%
Under 9.5
37.5%
@ 1.87-12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.92
1xBet
1.89
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.88
Marathonbet
1.84
Under
10Bet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.87
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.2%
@ 1.34+7.6%
Under 3.5
24.8%
@ 2.80-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.34
Under
Superbet
2.80
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
84.8%
Under 21.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Thun or Draw✓ Hit
62.8%
Avg Implied 71.7% · @ 1.30
Edge
-8.9%
38%
24%
37%
covers FC Thun + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.35
William Hil
1.33
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.30
Betfair
1.30
FC Thun or Lausanne✗ Miss
75.7%
Avg Implied 74.0% · @ 1.26
Edge
+1.7%
38%
24%
37%
covers FC Thun + Lausanne
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Lausanne✓ Hit
61.5%
Avg Implied 54.3% · @ 1.72
Edge
+7.2%
38%
24%
37%
covers Draw + Lausanne
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.80
Betano
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.70
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Thun over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
82.6%
@ 1.16+2.1%
Under
17.4%
@ 4.75-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
10Bet
4.75
FC Thun over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
52.1%
@ 1.83+1.1%
Under
47.9%
@ 1.91-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
Unibet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Betfair
1.91
FC Thun over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
25.5%
@ 3.60-0.3%
Under
74.5%
@ 1.25+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.77
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.58
Under
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
FC Thun over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 7.87-1.8%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.05+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.60
Superbet
7.60
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Lausanne over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
82.0%
@ 1.28+9.4%
Under
18.0%
@ 3.39-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.59
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Lausanne over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
51.2%
@ 2.41+12.4%
Under
48.8%
@ 1.53-12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.54
Betfair
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.46
BetVictor
2.40
Under
Unibet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Lausanne over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.7%
@ 5.54+7.9%
Under
75.3%
@ 1.12-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.75
Superbet
5.50
Under
Unibet
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Lausanne over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.6%
@ 12.16+1.8%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.02-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Betano
10.50
Under
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Thun, so a minus line means FC Thun give that many goals of a start and Lausanne receive them. At -1, FC Thun must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Thun win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Thun)Actual: Lausanne
FC Thun -2
8.7%
@ 7.42-3.4%
Draw -2
11.8%
@ 5.91-3.4%
Lausanne +2
79.5%
@ 1.23+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.60
Away
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Handicap -1 (FC Thun)Actual: Lausanne
FC Thun -1
20.5%
@ 3.62-4.2%
Draw -1
18.0%
@ 3.96-4.6%
Lausanne +1
61.5%
@ 1.70+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Superbet
3.55
Unibet
3.50
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.05
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Unibet
3.85
Away
Superbet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
Bet365
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Handicap +1 (FC Thun)Actual: FC Thun
FC Thun +1
62.8%
@ 1.32-5.6%
Draw +1
17.7%
@ 5.06-0.1%
Lausanne -1
19.5%
@ 6.50+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.25
Superbet
5.15
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Away
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
6.55
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.20
Handicap +2 (FC Thun)Actual: FC Thun
FC Thun +2
80.5%
@ 1.08-3.7%
Draw +2
11.3%
@ 9.33+1.6%
Lausanne -2
8.2%
@ 15.00+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.09
Bet365
1.09
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
8.00
Away
Betfair
18.00
Bet365
15.00
Unibet
12.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Thun
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.97
1.08
1.00
0.88
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.80
1.08
1.00
1.00
0.62
1.15
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lausanne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lausanne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.73
0.60
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.59
0.90
0.60
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.86
0.50
0.75
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Thun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
72.8%
@ 1.29+1.0%
Under 0.5
27.2%
@ 3.29-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.40
William Hil
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.3%
@ 2.35-2.3%
Under 1.5
62.7%
@ 1.54+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.49
Betano
2.47
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.36
Under
Unibet
1.58
SBO
1.58
Superbet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.3%
@ 5.44-2.7%
Under 2.5
85.7%
@ 1.12+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.80
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Thun over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
53.3%
@ 1.76+0.5%
Under
46.7%
@ 1.97-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.80
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
10Bet
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
Unibet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.95
FC Thun over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
19.0%
@ 4.74-0.5%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.15+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.65
Superbet
4.50
Under
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
FC Thun over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 12.08-1.9%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.02+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Lausanne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.2%
@ 2.09-5.2%
Under
60.8%
@ 1.67+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
Superbet
2.10
Under
Unibet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Superbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Lausanne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.5%
@ 6.76-3.2%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.07+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.10
Marathonbet
7.10
Betano
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Lausanne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 19.17-3.6%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Thun
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.03
1.54
1.00
1.06
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.20
1.12
1.42
1.08
1.00
1.15
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.25
3.00
0.00
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Lausanne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lausanne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.17
0.60
1.27
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.45
1.32
0.50
1.60
0.42
1.08
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.86
0.75
0.75
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Thun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
80.9%
@ 1.17+1.2%
Under 0.5
19.1%
@ 4.59-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.60
Superbet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
49.0%
@ 1.81-2.2%
Under 1.5
51.0%
@ 1.91+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Under
Betano
1.95
Unibet
1.95
William Hil
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.1%
@ 3.58-0.9%
Under 2.5
74.9%
@ 1.25+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.75
Superbet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Thun over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
60.8%
@ 1.51-0.5%
Under
39.2%
@ 2.40+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.52
10Bet
1.48
Under
10Bet
2.45
Betano
2.42
Superbet
2.37
1xBet
2.34
FC Thun over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
26.6%
@ 3.41-0.6%
Under
73.4%
@ 1.27+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Superbet
3.45
10Bet
3.30
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
FC Thun over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 8.72-2.9%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.04+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.80
Superbet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Lausanne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.9%
@ 1.75-3.2%
Under
50.1%
@ 1.98+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Under
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Lausanne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.9%
@ 4.71-4.7%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.15+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Superbet
4.70
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.45
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Lausanne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 12.08-3.8%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.02+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
93.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.2%
1.04
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
90.4%
1.02
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.0%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+7.9%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
86.2%
1.05
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.7%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.1%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.6%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.15
+2.1%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
82.0%
1.28
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.29
+9.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.0%
1.15
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.17
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
+1.2%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
80.5%
1.08
Unibet
1.09
Bet365
1.09
Betfair
1.07
-
-
-3.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.5%
1.23
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.7%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+1.7%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
75.3%
1.12
Unibet
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
-7.9%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.2%
1.34
Superbet
1.34
-
-
-
-
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.9%
1.25
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
74.5%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.9%
1.53
10Bet
1.67
Unibet
1.57
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.50
+13.7%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.4%
1.27
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
73.2%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
-5.9%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.8%
1.29
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
+1.0%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Thun
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Brighton Labeau50%
Furkan Dursun33%
Layton Stewart25%
Marc Gutbub25%
Nicolas Bürgy17%
N. Maier17%
N. Reichmuth17%
J. Bamert0%
Justin Roth0%
N. Steffen0%
F. Fehr0%
F. Saiz0%
Michael Heule0%
N. Zoukit0%
Lucien Dähler0%
Valmir Matoshi0%
Dorian Derbaci0%
S. Lengen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
F. Fehr50%
Nicolas Bürgy33%
Furkan Dursun33%
N. Zoukit20%
Justin Roth17%
N. Steffen17%
N. Reichmuth17%
Brighton Labeau0%
J. Bamert0%
Layton Stewart0%
N. Maier0%
F. Saiz0%
Michael Heule0%
Lucien Dähler0%
Valmir Matoshi0%
Dorian Derbaci0%
Marc Gutbub0%
S. Lengen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marc Gutbub50%
Furkan Dursun33%
Dorian Derbaci33%
F. Fehr25%
F. Saiz20%
N. Zoukit20%
Lucien Dähler20%
Nicolas Bürgy17%
Brighton Labeau0%
J. Bamert0%
Justin Roth0%
Layton Stewart0%
N. Maier0%
N. Steffen0%
N. Reichmuth0%
Michael Heule0%
Valmir Matoshi0%
S. Lengen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Furkan Dursun33%
S. Lengen33%
N. Reichmuth17%
Brighton Labeau0%
J. Bamert0%
Nicolas Bürgy0%
Justin Roth0%
Layton Stewart0%
N. Maier0%
N. Steffen0%
F. Fehr0%
F. Saiz0%
Michael Heule0%
N. Zoukit0%
Lucien Dähler0%
Valmir Matoshi0%
Dorian Derbaci0%
Marc Gutbub0%
Lausanne
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
F. Mollet33%
Enzo Molebe33%
Ibrahim Bah Mendes33%
N. Butler-Oyedeji17%
Omar Janneh17%
M. Poaty0%
Kevin Mouanga0%
Olivier Custodio0%
B. Soppy0%
Jamie Roche0%
Alban Ajdini0%
M. Mastil0%
K. Sow0%
Theo Bergvall0%
S. Koné0%
S. Traore0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Olivier Custodio50%
K. Sow50%
M. Poaty33%
F. Mollet33%
Ibrahim Bah Mendes33%
Theo Bergvall25%
N. Butler-Oyedeji17%
B. Soppy17%
S. Koné17%
Omar Janneh17%
Kevin Mouanga0%
Jamie Roche0%
Alban Ajdini0%
M. Mastil0%
S. Traore0%
Enzo Molebe0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
S. Traore25%
K. Sow17%
S. Koné17%
Omar Janneh17%
M. Poaty0%
Kevin Mouanga0%
F. Mollet0%
Olivier Custodio0%
N. Butler-Oyedeji0%
B. Soppy0%
Jamie Roche0%
Alban Ajdini0%
M. Mastil0%
Theo Bergvall0%
Enzo Molebe0%
Ibrahim Bah Mendes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Omar Janneh17%
M. Poaty0%
Kevin Mouanga0%
F. Mollet0%
Olivier Custodio0%
N. Butler-Oyedeji0%
B. Soppy0%
Jamie Roche0%
Alban Ajdini0%
M. Mastil0%
K. Sow0%
Theo Bergvall0%
S. Koné0%
S. Traore0%
Enzo Molebe0%
Ibrahim Bah Mendes0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (28)
€66m
FB1 (26)
€49m
FL (26)
€39m
FSG (28)
€32m
FS (28)
€30m
LAU (23)
€27m
FL (28)
€26m
SF (27)
€21m
FT (25)
€17m
GRA (35)
€16m
FZ (27)
€15m
FV (26)
€6m
FC Thun's squad is €10m less valuable than Lausanne's (€17m vs €27m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (11)
€16m
FL (11)
€15m
BYB (4)
€15m
FS (10)
€15m
FSG (11)
€12m
LAU (8)
€9m
FL (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€7m
FZ (7)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
FT (7)
€4m
FV (9)
€2m
FC Thun's attack is €5m less valuable than Lausanne's (€4m vs €9m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (8)
€18m
FB1 (5)
€16m
SF (9)
€7m
FL (5)
€7m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (6)
€6m
LAU (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
GRA (10)
€4m
FL (5)
€3m
FZ (6)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
FC Thun and Lausanne have a similar midfield value (both €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (16)
€33m
FL (14)
€24m
FB1 (10)
€16m
FSG (11)
€14m
LAU (10)
€13m
FS (12)
€9m
SF (12)
€8m
FL (12)
€8m
FT (10)
€8m
GRA (15)
€7m
FZ (14)
€6m
FV (9)
€2m
FC Thun's defence is €5m less valuable than Lausanne's (€8m vs €13m).
Switzerland: Super League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Lugano
BSC Young Boys
FC Basel 1893
FC Sion
FC Luzern
FC ST. Gallen
FC Zurich
Servette FC
Grasshoppers
FC Vaduz