Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, as FC UFA have conceded just 1.11 goals per game at home while Enisey concedes 1.31 away. The model favours a home win, with a 43% chance, a draw 32%, and an away win 25%. The expected total is 2.1 goals, pointing to a tight 2-goal match. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.4% probability. FC UFA’s home form shows 1.44 goals scored and 1.11 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Enisey’s away form is 0.92 scored and 1.31 conceded. Suggested selections include Over 2.5 cards at 87.9%, Under 3.5 at 83.9%, Over 3.5 cards at 74.1%, and Over 8.5 corners at 73.7%. The home side’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 1-0 win over FK Neftekhimik add confidence, while Enisey’s recent draw and 0-0 against Shinnik Yaroslavl suggest a cautious approach. The match is poised for a low-scoring, defensive showdown with the home side slightly ahead.
Results analysis
The 2-2 draw was a shock, as the pre-match favourite, FC UFA, had been tipped to win with a 43% chance. The model’s call was wrong. The match ended in a draw, matching the actual result. The model’s other selections were mixed: Under 3.5 goals, with an 83.9% probability, missed, while Over 8.5 corners, at 73.7%, hit. FC UFA had been on a two-game winning run, their last five results reading WWDLD, and had just beaten FK Neftekhimik 1-0 at home. Enisey, coming off a draw and with a last-five of DLDDD, managed a 0-0 stalemate in their final match. The game’s outcome was far from the model’s expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC UFA win✗ Miss
43.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Enisey win✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC UFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.33
1.00
1.07
0.88
1.56
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.10
0.20
1.00
1.00
1.20
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.45
1.44
1.11
0.82
1.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Enisey
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.03
1.53
0.73
0.93
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
1.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.16
0.96
1.42
0.58
0.92
1.31
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FC UFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.4%
Under 1.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.1%
Under 2.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
16.1%
Under 3.5
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.5%
No
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
1-0
13.7%
0-0
13.6%
0-1
9.4%
2-0
9.2%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
5.7%
0-2
4.7%
FC UFA goals ↓
Enisey goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
9.4%
4.7%
1.4%
0.3%
1
14%
14%
5.7%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.2%
8.0%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
3
3.8%
3.3%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC UFA goals (down), columns = Enisey goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rubin
2.03
Baltika
1.97
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.82
Enisey
1.59
Rodina Moskva
1.47
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.38
FK Neftekhimik
1.38
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.35
Akron
1.35
Ska-khabarovsk
1.29
Volgar Astrakhan
1.29
KAMAZ
1.29
Arsenal Tula
1.21
Urozhay
1.09
Veles
0.97
Krasnodar 2
0.91
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.88
FC UFA
0.88
FC UFA is 0.71 points worse than Enisey in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.65
Baltika
1.65
Rubin
1.56
Ska-khabarovsk
1.47
Enisey
1.26
Rodina Moskva
1.24
Akron
1.12
Arsenal Tula
1.09
Volgar Astrakhan
1.09
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.06
Urozhay
1.06
Veles
1.03
KAMAZ
1.03
FK Neftekhimik
1.00
Krasnodar 2
0.94
FC UFA
0.94
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.74
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.68
FC UFA is 0.32 goals worse than Enisey in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.76
Rubin
0.79
Baltika
0.88
FK Neftekhimik
0.97
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.03
Enisey
1.03
Akron
1.06
KAMAZ
1.06
Rodina Moskva
1.12
Ska-khabarovsk
1.15
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.21
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.21
Volgar Astrakhan
1.21
Urozhay
1.21
Arsenal Tula
1.35
FC UFA
1.35
Krasnodar 2
1.59
Veles
1.62
FC UFA is 0.32 goals worse than Enisey in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC UFA
For 5.2 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Enisey
For 4.9 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC UFA
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (30)
9.2
10.3
7.8
1.8
1.6
2.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (10)
10.5
12.7
8.3
3.3
2.6
4.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
7.6
8.0
7.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
50%
40%
30%
29%
31%
-
-
-
% under line
55%
50%
60%
70%
71%
69%
-
-
-
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Enisey
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (30)
9.5
8.9
10.4
2.5
2.5
2.5
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
7.3
7.5
7.0
4.0
4.5
3.5
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
10.1
9.3
11.0
2.2
2.2
2.3
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
9.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
29%
20%
43%
33%
33%
33%
-
-
-
% under line
71%
80%
57%
67%
67%
67%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC UFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FK Neftekhimik
10.6
Arsenal Tula
10.4
Baltika
10.2
Akron
10.2
Urozhay
10.0
Krasnodar 2
9.8
Rubin
9.8
Shinnik Yaroslavl
9.7
Veles
9.7
Enisey
9.5
FC UFA
9.2
Volgar Astrakhan
9.1
Rodina Moskva
9.1
KAMAZ
8.5
Ska-khabarovsk
8.4
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.1
Dinamo Makhachkala
8.0
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
KAMAZ
6.8
Ska-khabarovsk
6.8
Krasnodar 2
5.5
Dinamo Makhachkala
5.4
Enisey
5.4
Rubin
5.3
Urozhay
5.2
Akron
5.2
Volgar Astrakhan
5.1
FC UFA
5.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
5.0
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.9
FK Neftekhimik
4.7
Baltika
4.7
Rodina Moskva
4.6
Arsenal Tula
4.5
Veles
4.5
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
62.2%
Under 9.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
74.1%
Under 3.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC UFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.40
0.20
0.40
0.20
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.65
0.56
0.56
0.36
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Enisey
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.93
0.33
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.44
0.92
0.25
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC UFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC UFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC UFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.57
0.57
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.70
0.00
0.60
0.80
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.80
0.89
0.56
0.45
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Enisey
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.40
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.52
0.50
0.33
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC UFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC UFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUB (27)
€45m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
RM (26)
€17m
AT (26)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
FC UFA and Enisey have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
DM (13)
€9m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
AT (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
FC UFA and Enisey have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUB (6)
€12m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
RM (4)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
FC UFA and Enisey have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
FC UFA and Enisey have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Russia: First League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →