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FC Vitebsk vs ML Vitebsk Result & Analysis

Date: 04/06/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
Vs
20%
27%
54%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Vitebsk win✓ Hit
19.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk win✗ Miss
53.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC VitebskFC Vitebsk

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L11D00D21W01L21W01L02L01L30WH·FC 06/11A·NEM12/11H·ZHO08/04A·NIV15/04H·FC 22/04A·LID29/04H·ARS08/05A·LOK14/05H·BAR20/05A·SLO27/05← Premier League1. Division →
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.430.601.471.201.40
vs Stronger (2)0.501.000.000.001.002.00
vs Similar (27)0.851.520.641.571.081.46
vs Weaker (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-523L31W50W31W32W02L21W02L22D11DA·ARS16/11H·ARS20/11A·SLO01/04H·OST14/04A·MOL22/04H·SHA01/05A·OSI08/05H·ORS14/05A·BUM20/05H·VOL27/05← Premier League1. Division →
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.071.531.811.562.361.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)2.071.531.811.562.361.50
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.9%
Under 1.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.5%
Under 2.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.8%
Under 3.5
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
0-1
11.5%
0-2
10.5%
1-2
9.6%
0-0
8.8%
1-0 ✓
5.8%
0-3
5.8%
1-3
5.3%
FC Vitebsk goals ↓
ML Vitebsk goals →
01234
08.8%11%10%5.8%2.4%
15.8%13%9.6%5.3%2.2%
23.2%5.3%4.4%2.4%1.0%
31.0%1.6%1.3%0.7%0.3%
40.2%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Vitebsk goals (down), columns = ML Vitebsk goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.53
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.28
FC Vitebsk
2.28
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.94
ML Vitebsk
1.91
Baranovichi
1.50
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.44
Volna
1.34
Lida
1.28
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.28
Niva
1.28
Ostrovets FC
1.22
Bumprom
1.19
Orsha
0.97
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.69
Slonim
0.69
Osipovichy
0.16
FC Vitebsk is 0.38 points better than ML Vitebsk in terms of average points per game (2.28 vs 1.91).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.69
ML Vitebsk
2.62
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.34
FC Vitebsk
2.12
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.72
Ostrovets FC
1.69
Niva
1.66
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.59
Orsha
1.56
Baranovichi
1.44
Bumprom
1.41
Lida
1.38
Volna
1.28
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.03
Slonim
0.81
Osipovichy
0.66
FC Vitebsk is 0.50 goals worse than ML Vitebsk in terms of goals scored per game (2.12 vs 2.62).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.69
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.75
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.25
Lida
1.50
Baranovichi
1.53
Volna
1.53
ML Vitebsk
1.62
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.62
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.75
Orsha
1.94
Ostrovets FC
1.94
Bumprom
1.94
Slonim
1.97
Niva
2.06
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.25
Osipovichy
2.66
FC Vitebsk is 0.94 goals better than ML Vitebsk in terms of goals conceded per game (0.69 vs 1.62).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC VitebskFC Vitebsk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L00D10W00D00D00D01L00D20WH·FC 06/11A·NEM12/11H·ZHO08/04A·NIV15/04H·FC 22/04A·LID29/04H·ARS08/05A·LOK14/05H·BAR20/05A·SLO27/05← Premier League1. Division →
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.670.400.600.470.73
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (27)0.410.700.430.640.380.77
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W10W00D21W00D01L02L21W00DA·ARS16/11H·ARS20/11A·SLO01/04H·OST14/04A·MOL22/04H·SHA01/05A·OSI08/05H·ORS14/05A·BUM20/05H·VOL27/05← Premier League1. Division →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.530.810.441.210.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)1.000.530.810.441.210.64
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Vitebsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC VitebskFC Vitebsk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L10W00D11D01L21W01L01L01L10WH·FC 06/11A·NEM12/11H·ZHO08/04A·NIV15/04H·FC 22/04A·LID29/04H·ARS08/05A·LOK14/05H·BAR20/05A·SLO27/05← Premier League1. Division →
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.770.200.870.730.67
vs Stronger (2)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (27)0.440.810.210.930.690.69
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W21W40W31W11D02L20W00D01L11DA·ARS16/11H·ARS20/11A·SLO01/04H·OST14/04A·MOL22/04H·SHA01/05A·OSI08/05H·ORS14/05A·BUM20/05H·VOL27/05← Premier League1. Division →
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.001.001.121.140.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)1.071.001.001.121.140.86
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Vitebsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
FC Vitebsk's squad is €11m less valuable than ML Vitebsk's (€3m vs €14m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
FV (13)
€2m
FDM (9)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
FC Vitebsk's attack is €4m less valuable than ML Vitebsk's (€2m vs €6m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
FDM (6)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
FC Vitebsk's midfield is €2m less valuable than ML Vitebsk's (€0m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
FC Vitebsk's defence is €4m less valuable than ML Vitebsk's (€1m vs €5m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
FV wins
0
Draws
0
MV wins

Head-to-head

FC Vitebsk vs ML Vitebsk · H/A from FV
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

FC VitebskFC Vitebsk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/05/23ASlonim Vs FV0-3
20/05/23HFV Vs Baranovichi0-1
14/05/23ALokomotiv Gomel Vs FV2-0
08/05/23HFV Vs Arsenal (Belarus)0-1
29/04/23ALida Vs FV1-2
22/04/23HFV Vs FC Dnepr Mogilev0-1
15/04/23ANiva Vs FV1-2
08/04/23HFV Vs Zhodino Yuzhnoe0-0
12/11/22ANeman Vs FV1-1
06/11/22HFV Vs FC Isloch Minsk R.1-3

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/05/23HMV Vs Volna1-1
20/05/23ABumprom Vs MV2-2
14/05/23HMV Vs Orsha0-2
08/05/23AOsipovichy Vs MV1-2
01/05/23HMV Vs Shakhtyor Petrikov0-2
22/04/23AMolodechno-DYuSSh 4 Vs MV2-3
14/04/23HMV Vs Ostrovets FC3-1
01/04/23ASlonim Vs MV0-5
20/11/22HMV Vs Arsenal (Belarus)3-1
16/11/22AArsenal (Belarus) Vs MV3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLW0.84
HomeLDLLL0.68
AwayDWWLW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%11%26%
AVG goals2.392.162.63
Over 1.5 %71%58%84%
Over 2.5 %45%42%47%
Over 3.5 %18%21%16%
Scored0.920.681.16
Conceded1.471.471.47
BTTS42%37%47%
Clean Sheet18%16%21%
Corners9.008.809.20
Cards4.253.605.33
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDD1.71
HomeWWLLD1.71
AwayLWWWD1.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%47%53%
AVG goals3.383.183.59
Over 1.5 %79%82%76%
Over 2.5 %68%59%76%
Over 3.5 %59%59%59%
Scored1.941.712.18
Conceded1.441.471.41
BTTS59%59%59%
Clean Sheet26%18%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Arsenal (Belarus)Arsenal (Belarus)3281
81%
2.5
8630+56
3.6
84%
69%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.70.9
-
2FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev3273
69%
2.3
7524+51
3.1
75%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.8
-
3FC VitebskFC Vitebsk3273
72%
2.3
6822+46
2.8
72%
66%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2012.10.7
-
4Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel3262
59%
1.9
5540+15
3.0
88%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.2
-
5ML VitebskML Vitebsk3261
59%
1.9
8452+32
4.2
94%
81%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6352.61.6
-
6BaranovichiBaranovichi3248
44%
1.5
4649-3
3.0
81%
53%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.5
-
7Zhodino YuzhnoeZhodino Yuzhnoe3246
41%
1.4
6252+10
3.6
88%
72%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
8VolnaVolna3243
38%
1.3
4149-8
2.8
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.5
-
9LidaLida3241
38%
1.3
4448-4
2.9
72%
62%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.5
-
10Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 43241
34%
1.3
5156-5
3.3
88%
72%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.8
-
11NivaNiva3241
38%
1.3
5366-13
3.7
88%
69%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.72.1
-
12Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC3239
31%
1.2
5462-8
3.6
84%
69%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.71.9
-
13BumpromBumprom3238
31%
1.2
4562-17
3.3
88%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.9
-
14OrshaOrsha3231
25%
1.0
5062-12
3.5
88%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.9
-
15SlonimSlonim3222
16%
0.7
2663-37
2.8
62%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.0
-
16Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov3222
19%
0.7
3372-39
3.3
81%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
17OsipovichyOsipovichy325
3%
0.2
2185-64
3.3
84%
62%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.7
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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