FC Volendam are tipped to win this Eerste Divisie clash, with a 52 % chance of a home victory, 26 % for a draw and 22 % for a Dordrecht win. The match is expected to see 2.8 goals on average, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.3 % probability. Volendam’s home form shows they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded against opponents of similar strength, while Dordrecht, on the road, averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.44 conceded. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.0 %, Under 7.5 at 98.6 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.5 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0 %, Under 6.5 at 96.2 %, Home +2 handicap at 95.2 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.4 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.5 %. Both sides have recently come off defeats, with Volendam losing 0-1 to MVV and Dordrecht losing 0-1 to Roda.
Results analysis
FC Volendam’s recent win extends their run, and the Pythia model’s favourite, a home win, proved correct as the final score was 6-1. The model’s pre-match probability for a Volendam victory was 52%. Every suggested selection is addressed: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99%; Under 7.5 hit at 98.7%; Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.5%; Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98%; Under 6.5 missed at 96.3%; Home +2 handicap hit at 95%; Home under 2.5 HT goals missed at 94.3%; and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 93.7%. The model’s predictions largely came through, confirming its accuracy for this match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Volendam win✓ Hit
51.6%
Avg Implied 48.0% · @ 1.94
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.09
SBO
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Superbet
1.95
Unibet
1.94
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied 25.2% · @ 3.69
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.96
Betfair
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.80
1xBet
3.78
Dordrecht win✗ Miss
22.3%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.47
Edge
-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Betano
3.60
Pinnacle
3.57
Superbet
3.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Volendam
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.47
1.21
1.29
0.75
1.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.50
1.17
1.00
0.17
2.00
vs Similar (17)
1.06
1.53
1.00
1.71
1.10
1.40
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Dordrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dordrecht
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.70
1.27
1.40
1.13
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.17
1.69
1.21
1.36
1.13
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Volendam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
@ 1.16-2.1%
Under 1.5
22.2%
@ 4.65+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.19
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Pinnacle
4.99
BetVictor
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.8%
@ 1.58-6.6%
Under 2.5
47.2%
@ 2.31+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.64
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.43
Betfair
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
Bet365
2.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.6%
@ 2.41-7.9%
Under 3.5
69.4%
@ 1.51+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.60
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.45
Betano
2.42
10Bet
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.0%
@ 1.51-6.3%
No
45.0%
@ 2.40+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.56
Betfair
1.53
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.50
No
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.45
Betfair
2.45
1xBet
2.42
William Hil
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%@ 7.01+6.0%
2-1
9.7%@ 8.01+4.1%
1-0
9.5%@ 9.31+4.6%
2-0
9.1%@ 10.66+4.9%
0-0
7.3%@ 13.44+3.9%
1-2
6.0%@ 10.79+1.9%
3-1
5.6%@ 12.50+2.0%
0-1
5.4%@ 12.60+1.9%
FC Volendam goals ↓
Dordrecht goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
5.4%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
1
9.5%
12%
6.0%
2.1%
0.6%
2
9.1%
9.7%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
5.2%
5.6%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.3%
2.4%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Volendam goals (down), columns = Dordrecht goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
FC Volendam is 0.26 points better than Dordrecht in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
FC Volendam is 0.24 goals better than Dordrecht in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
FC Volendam is 0.03 goals worse than Dordrecht in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Volendam
For 4.7 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 12.7 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dordrecht
For 5.9 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 13.3 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Volendam
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.9
10.9
3.0
4.1
2.1
22.0
22.9
21.3
vs Stronger (16)
9.7
9.5
9.9
2.7
3.9
1.5
19.7
21.9
17.5
vs Similar (33)
10.6
9.5
11.3
3.2
4.3
2.4
23.2
23.5
23.0
vs Weaker (1)
17.0
17.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
24.0
24.0
-
% over line
60%
50%
69%
36%
61%
15%
56%
68%
46%
% under line
40%
50%
31%
64%
39%
85%
44%
32%
54%
This opponent (Dordrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dordrecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.6
12.0
11.2
4.2
4.0
4.5
25.8
25.1
26.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
11.5
12.3
10.7
4.1
3.8
4.4
25.8
24.9
26.7
vs Weaker (3)
12.7
5.0
16.5
6.3
8.0
5.5
25.7
30.0
23.5
% over line
72%
80%
64%
56%
56%
56%
78%
68%
88%
% under line
28%
20%
36%
44%
44%
44%
22%
32%
12%
This opponent (FC Volendam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.7
Dordrecht
11.6
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.6
Jong AZ
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
FC Volendam
10.4
FC Eindhoven
10.4
Emmen
10.3
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
10.0
NAC Breda
9.8
Vitesse
9.7
Jong Utrecht
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Jong Ajax
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Emmen
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Jong AZ
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.3
Roda
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
MVV
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Almere City FC
3.0
Jong Utrecht
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.9
Emmen
25.9
Dordrecht
25.8
Jong Utrecht
25.6
Helmond Sport
25.6
Jong Ajax
25.1
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
Jong PSV U21
23.9
VVV Venlo
23.8
Jong AZ
23.6
Den Bosch
23.2
NAC Breda
23.2
De Graafschap
22.8
MVV
22.7
FC Eindhoven
22.6
Waalwijk
22.5
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.61
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
Under
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Unibet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Volendam or Draw✓ Hit
85.6%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.28
Edge
+12.5%
52%
26%
22%
covers FC Volendam + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
FC Volendam or Dordrecht✓ Hit
78.5%
Avg Implied 75.3% · @ 1.24
Edge
+3.2%
52%
26%
22%
covers FC Volendam + Dordrecht
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Draw or Dordrecht✗ Miss
35.9%
Avg Implied 51.6% · @ 1.81
Edge
-15.7%
52%
26%
22%
covers Draw + Dordrecht
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.81
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Volendam over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.2%
@ 1.13+6.2%
Under
11.8%
@ 5.14-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.30
BetVictor
5.25
10Bet
5.25
FC Volendam over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
63.0%
@ 1.72+8.7%
Under
37.0%
@ 2.04-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.78
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.10
BetVictor
2.05
Betano
2.05
FC Volendam over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
36.0%
@ 3.21+7.1%
Under
64.0%
@ 1.30-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.45
BetVictor
3.30
Pinnacle
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Under
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
FC Volendam over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
16.8%
@ 6.44+2.4%
Under
83.2%
@ 1.09-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.60
Betfair
6.50
Betano
6.10
1xBet
6.00
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Dordrecht over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
60.6%
@ 1.30-10.9%
Under
39.4%
@ 3.24+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.43
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
Superbet
3.20
Dordrecht over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
23.9%
@ 2.48-13.5%
Under
76.1%
@ 1.48+13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
10Bet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.54
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.48
Under
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Superbet
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Betano
1.50
Dordrecht over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.8%
@ 5.72-9.4%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.11+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.70
Superbet
5.55
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Dordrecht over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 13.83-5.4%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.02+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Volendam, so a minus line means FC Volendam give that many goals of a start and Dordrecht receive them. At -1, FC Volendam must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Volendam win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Volendam)Actual: FC Volendam
FC Volendam -2
21.6%
@ 6.34+7.5%
Draw -2
19.7%
@ 5.40+3.1%
Dordrecht +2
58.7%
@ 1.29-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
6.75
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.20
Draw
Marathonbet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Away
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
Handicap -1 (FC Volendam)Actual: FC Volendam
FC Volendam -1
41.3%
@ 3.31+14.3%
Draw -1
22.8%
@ 3.84-0.5%
Dordrecht +1
35.9%
@ 1.80-13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.35
Betfair
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Away
10Bet
1.91
Betfair
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Unibet
1.76
Handicap +1 (FC Volendam)Actual: FC Volendam
FC Volendam +1
85.6%
@ 1.26+14.4%
Draw +1
9.4%
@ 5.38-7.3%
Dordrecht -1
5.0%
@ 7.37-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Away
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
6.85
Unibet
6.75
Handicap +2 (FC Volendam)Actual: FC Volendam
FC Volendam +2
95.0%
@ 1.06+7.7%
Draw +2
3.7%
@ 11.50-4.3%
Dordrecht -2
1.3%
@ 20.00-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
11.00
Away
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Volendam
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.50
0.57
0.38
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.67
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.88
0.43
1.14
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Dordrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dordrecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.53
0.67
0.33
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.38
0.86
0.43
0.64
0.33
1.07
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Volendam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.7%
@ 1.27+1.6%
Under 0.5
25.3%
@ 3.45-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.60
William Hil
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.3%
@ 2.29-0.4%
Under 1.5
59.7%
@ 1.56+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Unibet
2.38
Pinnacle
2.36
1xBet
2.31
Marathonbet
2.29
Under
10Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
BetVictor
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
14.6%
@ 5.20-3.3%
Under 2.5
85.4%
@ 1.13+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.40
1xBet
5.15
Marathonbet
5.15
Under
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Volendam over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
63.6%
@ 1.67+8.2%
Under
36.4%
@ 2.08-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
Under
10Bet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
1xBet
2.12
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.05
FC Volendam over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
22.0%
@ 4.24+0.2%
Under
78.0%
@ 1.18-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
Betano
4.30
Superbet
4.25
1xBet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Under
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
FC Volendam over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
5.7%
@ 10.58-3.1%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.03+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Dordrecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
35.5%
@ 2.11-8.4%
Under
64.5%
@ 1.65+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.16
Betano
2.15
Unibet
2.12
Superbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
Superbet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Dordrecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.3%
@ 6.80-7.4%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.07+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.60
Superbet
6.60
1xBet
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Dordrecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 20.50-3.7%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Volendam
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.71
0.71
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.17
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.65
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Dordrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dordrecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
0.73
0.73
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.79
0.83
0.79
0.71
0.80
0.93
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Volendam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.7%
@ 1.15+2.2%
Under 0.5
17.3%
@ 4.77-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
Under
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
Betano
4.80
William Hil
4.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
52.2%
@ 1.79+0.4%
Under 1.5
47.8%
@ 1.93-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.83
William Hil
1.80
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.78
Under
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Superbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
24.1%
@ 3.40-3.1%
Under 2.5
75.9%
@ 1.27+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.36
1xBet
3.36
Under
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Volendam over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
69.8%
@ 1.46+6.0%
Under
30.2%
@ 2.56-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Under
10Bet
2.62
1xBet
2.60
Betano
2.57
Superbet
2.45
FC Volendam over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
33.7%
@ 3.14+4.2%
Under
66.3%
@ 1.31-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
10Bet
3.10
Betano
3.05
1xBet
3.00
Under
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.29
Superbet
1.29
FC Volendam over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
9.3%
@ 7.83-2.5%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.05+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
8.20
1xBet
8.10
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Dordrecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
42.1%
@ 1.78-10.1%
Under
57.9%
@ 1.94+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Under
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Dordrecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 4.86-9.7%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.14+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
4.85
1xBet
4.80
Betano
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Dordrecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 13.42-5.1%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.7%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Superbet
1.01
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
95.0%
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+3.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.7%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.2%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
BetVictor
1.04
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.7%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
+9.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
+2.5%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
88.2%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Betfair
1.13
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
85.6%
1.28
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
+12.5%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
85.6%
1.26
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+14.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.4%
1.13
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
+3.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
83.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Superbet
1.08
-2.4%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.7%
1.15
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
80.4%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
78.5%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
78.0%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
-0.2%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
77.8%
1.16
Unibet
1.19
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
76.1%
1.48
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Superbet
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Betano
1.50
+13.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.9%
1.27
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
+3.1%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.7%
1.27
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
+1.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Volendam
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Henk Veerman67%
Reuven Niemeijer33%
Nick Doodeman33%
Alex Plat0%
Mawouna Amevor0%
Daan Huisman0%
Roy Steur0%
Kayden Wolff0%
Precious Ugwu0%
Nordin Bukala0%
Luca Blondeau0%
Jesper Tielemans0%
Jaïr Haakmat0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nick Doodeman33%
Daan Huisman33%
Jaïr Haakmat33%
Henk Veerman0%
Reuven Niemeijer0%
Alex Plat0%
Mawouna Amevor0%
Roy Steur0%
Kayden Wolff0%
Precious Ugwu0%
Nordin Bukala0%
Luca Blondeau0%
Jesper Tielemans0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nick Doodeman67%
Reuven Niemeijer33%
Alex Plat33%
Henk Veerman0%
Mawouna Amevor0%
Daan Huisman0%
Roy Steur0%
Kayden Wolff0%
Precious Ugwu0%
Nordin Bukala0%
Luca Blondeau0%
Jesper Tielemans0%
Jaïr Haakmat0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Henk Veerman33%
Reuven Niemeijer33%
Alex Plat0%
Nick Doodeman0%
Mawouna Amevor0%
Daan Huisman0%
Roy Steur0%
Kayden Wolff0%
Precious Ugwu0%
Nordin Bukala0%
Luca Blondeau0%
Jesper Tielemans0%
Jaïr Haakmat0%
Dordrecht
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Vetkal50%
Nicolás Rossi33%
Dario Sits25%
Ayoub Ouarghi25%
Nick Venema0%
Calvin Raatsie0%
Yannis M'Bemba0%
Jurre van Aken0%
Jaden Pinas0%
Adil Lechkar0%
Beni Mpanzu0%
Siginho Gerardo0%
Robin van Asten0%
Senne Vugts0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ayoub Ouarghi75%
Martin Vetkal50%
Beni Mpanzu50%
Jurre van Aken25%
Dario Sits25%
Jaden Pinas25%
Nick Venema0%
Calvin Raatsie0%
Yannis M'Bemba0%
Nicolás Rossi0%
Adil Lechkar0%
Siginho Gerardo0%
Robin van Asten0%
Senne Vugts0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dario Sits50%
Nick Venema25%
Ayoub Ouarghi25%
Martin Vetkal0%
Calvin Raatsie0%
Yannis M'Bemba0%
Jurre van Aken0%
Nicolás Rossi0%
Jaden Pinas0%
Adil Lechkar0%
Beni Mpanzu0%
Siginho Gerardo0%
Robin van Asten0%
Senne Vugts0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dario Sits75%
Beni Mpanzu25%
Ayoub Ouarghi25%
Nick Venema0%
Martin Vetkal0%
Calvin Raatsie0%
Yannis M'Bemba0%
Jurre van Aken0%
Nicolás Rossi0%
Jaden Pinas0%
Adil Lechkar0%
Siginho Gerardo0%
Robin van Asten0%
Senne Vugts0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
FC Volendam and Dordrecht have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
FC Volendam and Dordrecht have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
FC Volendam and Dordrecht have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
FC Volendam's defence is €2m more valuable than Dordrecht's (€3m vs €2m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
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Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht