Defensive solidity is the headline for FC Voluntari, whose home form shows an average of just 0.33 goals conceded per match while scoring 1.17 against similarly ranked opponents. Chindia Targoviste, on the road, averages 1.33 goals both scored and conceded in comparable fixtures. The model favours a home win, with a 47% chance, a draw 33% and an away win 20%. The expected total goals is 1.9, centring on a 2-goal match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Voluntari, with a 16.6% probability. The suggested selections include Over 2.5 cards at 89.3%, Under 3.5 goals at 87.4% (hit), Under 11.5 corners at 77.6%, Over 3.5 cards at 76.5%, Under 25.5 fouls at 73.9%, Over 19.5 fouls at 73.3% and Under 2.5 goals at 70.2% (miss). The match is expected to be tight and low-scoring, with Voluntari’s defensive record giving them a slight edge.
Results analysis
The upset came early as FC Voluntari’s home form, a win that extended a mixed run, failed to materialise against Chindia Targoviste, who were coming off a defeat. The final score was 0-3, an away win that left the pre-match favourite, the model’s Home win at 47%, wrong. The model’s selection was therefore incorrect. The model’s other picks were mixed: Under 3.5, at 87.4%, hit, while Under 2.5, at 70.2%, missed. The most likely total of two goals, with a 28% chance, did not materialise, and the 1-0, 0-0 and 1-1 scorelines, each under 20%, were all missed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Voluntari win✗ Miss
46.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste win✓ Hit
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Voluntari
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.93
1.00
0.43
0.71
1.43
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
0.00
1.00
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.60
1.17
0.33
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Chindia Targoviste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chindia Targoviste
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.08
1.46
1.17
1.50
1.00
1.43
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.57
1.00
1.67
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (6)
1.33
1.33
1.33
1.33
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Voluntari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
58.0%
Under 1.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
29.8%
Under 2.5
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.6%
Under 3.5
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
36.6%
No
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.6%
0-0
16.1%
1-1
13.8%
2-0
10.7%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
4.4%
3-0
4.3%
FC Voluntari goals ↓
Chindia Targoviste goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
9.2%
3.7%
0.9%
0.2%
1
17%
14%
4.4%
1.0%
0.2%
2
11%
7.6%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
3
4.3%
3.0%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.3%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Voluntari goals (down), columns = Chindia Targoviste goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Farul Constanta
2.12
FCSB
1.85
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.80
Universitatea Craiova
1.68
Rapid
1.60
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.50
AFC Hermannstadt
1.44
U Craiova 1948
1.41
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.33
FC Voluntari
1.30
Universitatea Cluj
1.28
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.25
FC Botosani
1.21
Uta Arad
1.05
Chindia Targoviste
1.00
Arges Pitesti
0.98
CS Mioveni
0.56
SCM Gloria Buzău
0.50
FC Voluntari is 0.30 points better than Chindia Targoviste in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Bucuresti
4.00
Farul Constanta
1.90
FCSB
1.65
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.59
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.43
Rapid
1.43
Universitatea Craiova
1.30
U Craiova 1948
1.22
FC Voluntari
1.20
Uta Arad
1.07
AFC Hermannstadt
1.03
FC Botosani
1.00
Chindia Targoviste
1.00
Universitatea Cluj
0.95
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.95
Arges Pitesti
0.88
CS Mioveni
0.62
SCM Gloria Buzău
0.50
FC Voluntari is 0.20 goals better than Chindia Targoviste in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
AFC Hermannstadt
0.92
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.02
Universitatea Craiova
1.02
Farul Constanta
1.02
U Craiova 1948
1.05
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.10
FC Voluntari
1.15
Rapid
1.15
Universitatea Cluj
1.18
Uta Arad
1.24
FCSB
1.25
FC Botosani
1.26
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.36
Chindia Targoviste
1.38
Arges Pitesti
1.46
CS Mioveni
1.64
Dinamo Bucuresti
2.50
SCM Gloria Buzău
2.50
FC Voluntari is 0.23 goals better than Chindia Targoviste in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Universitatea Craiova
55%
U Craiova 1948
54%
Farul Constanta
53%
FCSB
52%
Uta Arad
52%
Petrolul Ploiesti
51%
Universitatea Cluj
51%
Rapid
50%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
50%
FC Voluntari
49%
AFC Hermannstadt
49%
FC Botosani
49%
Dinamo Bucuresti
48%
Arges Pitesti
48%
CFR 1907 Cluj
47%
Chindia Targoviste
45%
SCM Gloria Buzău
45%
CS Mioveni
45%
FC Voluntari is 3.9 percentage points better than Chindia Targoviste in terms of average possession (49% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Voluntari
For 3.2 · Against 3.8 · Total 7.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 9.0 · Total 18.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chindia Targoviste
For 4.0 · Against 5.8 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Voluntari
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (14)
7.0
7.3
6.0
1.3
2.0
0.6
18.0
20.0
12.0
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
7.0
7.3
6.0
1.8
2.3
1.0
18.0
20.0
12.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
21%
29%
14%
50%
67%
0%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
79%
71%
86%
50%
33%
100%
This opponent (Chindia Targoviste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chindia Targoviste
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (13)
9.8
8.5
10.7
1.6
1.2
2.0
23.8
25.0
23.0
vs Stronger (7)
11.3
11.0
11.5
2.4
2.0
2.8
22.7
25.0
21.5
vs Similar (6)
7.5
6.0
9.0
0.7
0.3
1.0
25.5
25.0
26.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
50%
33%
23%
17%
29%
80%
100%
67%
% under line
60%
50%
67%
77%
83%
71%
20%
0%
33%
This opponent (FC Voluntari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Petrolul Ploiesti
10.7
FC Botosani
10.2
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
10.1
Farul Constanta
10.0
Chindia Targoviste
9.8
Rapid
9.6
Uta Arad
9.2
FCSB
9.1
Universitatea Craiova
8.9
CFR 1907 Cluj
8.3
U Craiova 1948
8.2
CS Mioveni
8.0
Universitatea Cluj
7.7
Arges Pitesti
7.6
AFC Hermannstadt
7.2
FC Voluntari
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
U Craiova 1948
6.2
Universitatea Craiova
5.8
Petrolul Ploiesti
5.7
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
5.5
Rapid
5.4
Universitatea Cluj
5.3
Uta Arad
5.2
FC Botosani
5.2
Farul Constanta
5.2
FCSB
4.9
CFR 1907 Cluj
4.9
FC Voluntari
4.5
Chindia Targoviste
4.2
AFC Hermannstadt
4.0
Arges Pitesti
3.8
CS Mioveni
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Universitatea Craiova
27.2
U Craiova 1948
26.6
FC Botosani
26.4
Petrolul Ploiesti
25.0
Farul Constanta
24.8
Universitatea Cluj
24.7
Chindia Targoviste
23.8
CFR 1907 Cluj
23.7
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
23.6
Uta Arad
22.8
CS Mioveni
22.4
Rapid
22.4
FCSB
22.2
AFC Hermannstadt
21.6
Arges Pitesti
21.0
FC Voluntari
18.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.8%
Under 9.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
76.5%
Under 3.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
57.5%
Under 21.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Voluntari
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.29
0.71
0.14
0.29
0.43
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.30
0.83
0.17
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
79% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Chindia Targoviste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chindia Targoviste
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.62
0.69
0.50
1.00
0.71
0.43
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.43
0.67
1.00
0.75
0.00
vs Similar (6)
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Voluntari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Voluntari over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Voluntari over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Voluntari over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Voluntari
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.36
0.64
0.29
0.29
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.30
0.33
0.17
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Chindia Targoviste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chindia Targoviste
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.46
0.77
0.67
0.50
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.14
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
46% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Voluntari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Voluntari over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Voluntari over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Voluntari over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Voluntari · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Remus Guțea29%
Mihai Roman II20%
Cristian Merloi17%
Marvin Schieb14%
Matko Babić0%
Daniel Toma0%
Radu Crişan0%
Ion Gheorghe0%
Denis Haruț0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Metod Jurhar0%
Daniel Dumbrăvanu0%
Florian Haită0%
Adrian Chică-Roșă0%
Mihael Onișa0%
Matej Mamić0%
Alexandru Șuteu0%
Robert Petculescu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Adrian Chică-Roșă50%
Mihai Roman II40%
Radu Crişan29%
Daniel Toma20%
Florian Haită20%
Ion Gheorghe14%
Denis Haruț14%
Daniel Dumbrăvanu14%
Mihael Onișa14%
Matko Babić0%
Marvin Schieb0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Metod Jurhar0%
Cristian Merloi0%
Matej Mamić0%
Alexandru Șuteu0%
Robert Petculescu0%
Remus Guțea0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cristian Merloi17%
Ion Gheorghe14%
Matej Mamić14%
Matko Babić0%
Marvin Schieb0%
Daniel Toma0%
Radu Crişan0%
Mihai Roman II0%
Denis Haruț0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Metod Jurhar0%
Daniel Dumbrăvanu0%
Florian Haită0%
Adrian Chică-Roșă0%
Mihael Onișa0%
Alexandru Șuteu0%
Robert Petculescu0%
Remus Guțea0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Matko Babić29%
Remus Guțea29%
Alexandru Șuteu14%
Marvin Schieb0%
Daniel Toma0%
Radu Crişan0%
Mihai Roman II0%
Ion Gheorghe0%
Denis Haruț0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Metod Jurhar0%
Daniel Dumbrăvanu0%
Florian Haită0%
Cristian Merloi0%
Adrian Chică-Roșă0%
Mihael Onișa0%
Matej Mamić0%
Robert Petculescu0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UC (25)
€37m
RAP (31)
€30m
FCS (27)
€26m
DB (26)
€20m
UC (26)
€17m
C1C (22)
€14m
AP (26)
€13m
AH (37)
€11m
FC (32)
€11m
FB (25)
€9m
UA (21)
€8m
SOS (31)
€6m
PP (20)
€6m
FV (24)
€6m
CT (21)
€3m
FC Voluntari's squad is €2m more valuable than Chindia Targoviste's (€6m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UC (10)
€14m
RAP (13)
€14m
FCS (9)
€12m
C1C (6)
€8m
DB (10)
€8m
UC (8)
€7m
AH (13)
€5m
FC (10)
€4m
FB (8)
€4m
AP (11)
€4m
UA (8)
€4m
SOS (12)
€2m
FV (11)
€2m
CT (8)
€2m
PP (5)
€1m
FC Voluntari and Chindia Targoviste have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UC (6)
€10m
DB (4)
€5m
UC (6)
€4m
FCS (5)
€4m
RAP (4)
€3m
AP (6)
€3m
AH (9)
€2m
FC (7)
€2m
C1C (5)
€2m
PP (7)
€2m
FB (5)
€2m
SOS (7)
€1m
UA (3)
€1m
FV (2)
€1m
CT (2)
€0m
FC Voluntari and Chindia Targoviste have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UC (9)
€13m
RAP (14)
€12m
FCS (13)
€11m
DB (12)
€7m
AP (9)
€6m
UC (12)
€5m
AH (15)
€5m
FC (15)
€4m
C1C (11)
€4m
UA (10)
€4m
FB (12)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
PP (8)
€3m
SOS (12)
€2m
CT (11)
€1m
FC Voluntari's defence is €2m more valuable than Chindia Targoviste's (€3m vs €1m).
Romania: Liga I 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga I stats & trends →