This opponent (FC Luzern) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Luzern
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.50
1.25
1.19
1.64
1.86
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.33
1.00
1.00
1.50
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.38
1.46
1.14
1.29
1.67
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Winterthur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.2%
Under 1.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.5%
Under 2.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.3%
Under 3.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.2%
No
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
7.8%
0-1
6.9%
1-3
6.4%
2-1
6.1%
2-2
6.0%
0-3
5.2%
FC Winterthur goals ↓
FC Luzern goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
6.9%
7.8%
5.2%
2.6%
1
3.9%
11%
9.7%
6.4%
3.2%
2
3.0%
6.1%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
3
1.3%
2.5%
2.5%
1.6%
0.8%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Winterthur goals (down), columns = FC Luzern goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Basel 1893
1.92
Servette FC
1.66
BSC Young Boys
1.61
FC Aarau
1.50
FC Lugano
1.42
FC Zurich
1.39
Lausanne
1.39
FC ST. Gallen
1.37
FC Luzern
1.37
FC Sion
1.16
FC Winterthur
1.05
Grasshoppers
1.05
Yverdon Sport
1.03
FC Winterthur is 0.32 points worse than FC Luzern in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Basel 1893
2.39
FC Luzern
1.74
Servette FC
1.68
Lausanne
1.63
BSC Young Boys
1.58
FC Zurich
1.47
FC Lugano
1.45
FC ST. Gallen
1.37
FC Sion
1.24
Grasshoppers
1.18
FC Winterthur
1.13
Yverdon Sport
1.05
FC Aarau
0.50
FC Winterthur is 0.61 goals worse than FC Luzern in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Basel 1893
1.13
BSC Young Boys
1.29
Grasshoppers
1.35
FC ST. Gallen
1.39
Lausanne
1.42
Servette FC
1.45
FC Zurich
1.50
FC Sion
1.50
FC Lugano
1.53
FC Luzern
1.68
FC Winterthur
1.79
Yverdon Sport
1.79
FC Aarau
2.00
FC Winterthur is 0.11 goals worse than FC Luzern in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Lugano
60%
FC Zurich
55%
FC Basel 1893
54%
BSC Young Boys
52%
FC ST. Gallen
50%
Servette FC
50%
Lausanne
48%
FC Luzern
48%
FC Sion
47%
Grasshoppers
46%
FC Winterthur
45%
Yverdon Sport
44%
FC Winterthur is 2.6 percentage points worse than FC Luzern in terms of average possession (45% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Winterthur
For 4.2 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.1 · Against 10.8 · Total 18.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Luzern
For 7.2 · Against 4.8 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 14.9 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Winterthur
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.0
9.6
4.9
5.1
4.7
22.6
23.4
21.8
vs Stronger (43)
9.8
9.9
9.8
5.0
5.1
4.8
22.6
23.7
21.5
vs Similar (7)
9.6
10.7
8.8
4.6
4.7
4.5
22.3
21.0
23.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
52%
52%
62%
60%
64%
60%
64%
56%
% under line
48%
48%
48%
38%
40%
36%
40%
36%
44%
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Luzern
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.1
10.5
5.0
5.2
4.8
24.6
24.9
24.2
vs Stronger (4)
15.5
20.0
14.0
5.8
6.0
5.7
29.8
38.0
27.0
vs Similar (43)
10.6
11.0
10.1
4.8
5.0
4.6
24.1
24.5
23.6
vs Weaker (3)
8.0
7.5
9.0
6.3
7.0
5.0
24.7
23.0
28.0
% over line
58%
58%
58%
72%
77%
67%
74%
73%
75%
% under line
42%
42%
42%
28%
23%
33%
26%
27%
25%
This opponent (FC Winterthur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Luzern
10.8
BSC Young Boys
10.8
FC ST. Gallen
10.7
FC Basel 1893
10.6
Servette FC
10.5
Yverdon Sport
10.5
FC Sion
10.2
FC Winterthur
9.8
Lausanne
9.6
FC Zurich
9.6
Grasshoppers
9.3
FC Lugano
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Sion
5.7
FC Lugano
5.2
FC Basel 1893
5.2
Lausanne
5.2
FC ST. Gallen
5.1
FC Winterthur
5.0
Yverdon Sport
5.0
FC Luzern
5.0
BSC Young Boys
5.0
FC Zurich
4.8
Grasshoppers
4.7
Servette FC
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Yverdon Sport
26.3
BSC Young Boys
25.4
FC Luzern
24.6
FC Lugano
24.5
Lausanne
24.3
FC Zurich
24.0
FC Basel 1893
24.0
Grasshoppers
23.5
FC ST. Gallen
23.3
FC Sion
23.2
Servette FC
22.9
FC Winterthur
22.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.9%
Under 9.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.7%
Under 3.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
65.2%
Under 21.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Winterthur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.77
0.13
0.67
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (26)
0.23
0.88
0.15
0.77
0.31
1.00
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Luzern
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.31
0.88
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.35
0.85
0.29
0.93
0.42
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Winterthur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Winterthur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Winterthur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.13
0.93
1.00
0.53
1.27
vs Stronger (26)
0.65
1.27
0.85
1.15
0.46
1.38
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.25
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Luzern) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Luzern
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.70
0.94
0.31
1.14
1.14
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (26)
1.04
0.62
0.86
0.36
1.25
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Winterthur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Winterthur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Luzern over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Winterthur
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Antoine Baroan19%
Labinot Bajrami19%
Matteo Di Giusto18%
Nishan Burkart18%
Christian Gomis15%
Roman Buess13%
Josias Lukembila12%
Luca Zuffi11%
Loïc Lüthi8%
Fabian Frei7%
Granit Lekaj6%
Basil Stillhart5%
Randy Schneider3%
Remo Arnold3%
Fabian Rohner0%
Markus Kuster0%
Boubacar Fofana0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Lukas Mühl0%
Silvan Sidler0%
Tobias Schättin0%
Dario Ulrich0%
Musa Araz0%
Alexandre Jankewitz0%
Adrian Durrer0%
Stéphane Cueni0%
Souleymane Diaby0%
Carmine Chiappetta0%
Ledjan Sahitaj0%
Albin Krasniqi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ledjan Sahitaj60%
Alexandre Jankewitz40%
Adrian Durrer28%
Fabian Rohner25%
Carmine Chiappetta25%
Dario Ulrich22%
Souleymane Diaby22%
Albin Krasniqi20%
Silvan Sidler19%
Granit Lekaj18%
Remo Arnold17%
Fabian Frei17%
Randy Schneider16%
Basil Stillhart14%
Roman Buess13%
Tobias Schättin13%
Loïc Lüthi12%
Christian Gomis11%
Musa Araz10%
Antoine Baroan10%
Stefanos Kapino9%
Boubacar Fofana8%
Labinot Bajrami5%
Josias Lukembila4%
Luca Zuffi4%
Markus Kuster0%
Lukas Mühl0%
Matteo Di Giusto0%
Nishan Burkart0%
Stéphane Cueni0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fabian Rohner25%
Nishan Burkart23%
Antoine Baroan14%
Adrian Durrer11%
Randy Schneider9%
Josias Lukembila8%
Fabian Frei7%
Roman Buess7%
Dario Ulrich6%
Matteo Di Giusto5%
Basil Stillhart5%
Tobias Schättin4%
Luca Zuffi4%
Christian Gomis4%
Silvan Sidler3%
Remo Arnold3%
Markus Kuster0%
Boubacar Fofana0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Lukas Mühl0%
Granit Lekaj0%
Musa Araz0%
Alexandre Jankewitz0%
Stéphane Cueni0%
Souleymane Diaby0%
Carmine Chiappetta0%
Labinot Bajrami0%
Loïc Lüthi0%
Ledjan Sahitaj0%
Albin Krasniqi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Matteo Di Giusto13%
Carmine Chiappetta12%
Musa Araz10%
Nishan Burkart9%
Christian Gomis7%
Adrian Durrer6%
Antoine Baroan5%
Labinot Bajrami5%
Josias Lukembila4%
Fabian Rohner0%
Markus Kuster0%
Boubacar Fofana0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Lukas Mühl0%
Fabian Frei0%
Luca Zuffi0%
Basil Stillhart0%
Silvan Sidler0%
Roman Buess0%
Remo Arnold0%
Granit Lekaj0%
Tobias Schättin0%
Dario Ulrich0%
Alexandre Jankewitz0%
Stéphane Cueni0%
Randy Schneider0%
Souleymane Diaby0%
Loïc Lüthi0%
Ledjan Sahitaj0%
Albin Krasniqi0%
FC Luzern
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Donat Rrudhani27%
Adrian Grbić23%
Thibault Klidje22%
Luca Jaquez16%
Levin Winkler14%
Sinan Karweina14%
Lars Villiger13%
Kevin Spadanuda11%
Pius Dorn8%
Aleksandar Stanković8%
Stefan Knežević6%
Nicky Beloko5%
Bung Meng Freimann5%
Jakub Kadák4%
Severin Ottiger3%
Tyron Owusu3%
Andrejs Cigaņiks3%
Jesper Lofgren0%
Ismajl Beka0%
Dario Ulrich0%
Pascal Loretz0%
Ruben Dantas0%
Bung Hua Freimann0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ismajl Beka100%
Stefan Knežević36%
Nicky Beloko20%
Jesper Lofgren20%
Donat Rrudhani20%
Andrejs Cigaņiks17%
Pius Dorn16%
Severin Ottiger13%
Jakub Kadák13%
Levin Winkler11%
Bung Meng Freimann10%
Adrian Grbić10%
Aleksandar Stanković8%
Lars Villiger8%
Tyron Owusu6%
Kevin Spadanuda6%
Pascal Loretz5%
Luca Jaquez5%
Sinan Karweina5%
Dario Ulrich0%
Thibault Klidje0%
Ruben Dantas0%
Bung Hua Freimann0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bung Hua Freimann33%
Donat Rrudhani20%
Pius Dorn19%
Lars Villiger13%
Andrejs Cigaņiks11%
Kevin Spadanuda11%
Levin Winkler11%
Severin Ottiger10%
Sinan Karweina9%
Jakub Kadák9%
Thibault Klidje8%
Aleksandar Stanković5%
Nicky Beloko5%
Adrian Grbić3%
Tyron Owusu3%
Jesper Lofgren0%
Stefan Knežević0%
Ismajl Beka0%
Dario Ulrich0%
Pascal Loretz0%
Luca Jaquez0%
Ruben Dantas0%
Bung Meng Freimann0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thibault Klidje38%
Adrian Grbić16%
Sinan Karweina14%
Donat Rrudhani10%
Kevin Spadanuda6%
Aleksandar Stanković5%
Luca Jaquez5%
Lars Villiger5%
Andrejs Cigaņiks3%
Pius Dorn0%
Nicky Beloko0%
Jesper Lofgren0%
Stefan Knežević0%
Ismajl Beka0%
Dario Ulrich0%
Jakub Kadák0%
Tyron Owusu0%
Pascal Loretz0%
Severin Ottiger0%
Ruben Dantas0%
Levin Winkler0%
Bung Meng Freimann0%
Bung Hua Freimann0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (28)
€66m
FB1 (26)
€49m
FL (26)
€39m
FSG (28)
€32m
FS (28)
€30m
LAU (23)
€27m
FL (28)
€26m
SF (27)
€21m
GRA (35)
€16m
FZ (27)
€15m
FW (25)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
FC Winterthur's squad is €19m less valuable than FC Luzern's (€6m vs €26m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (11)
€16m
FL (11)
€15m
BYB (4)
€15m
FS (10)
€15m
FSG (11)
€12m
LAU (8)
€9m
FL (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€7m
FZ (7)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
FC Winterthur's attack is €13m less valuable than FC Luzern's (€2m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (8)
€18m
FB1 (5)
€16m
SF (9)
€7m
FL (5)
€7m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (6)
€6m
LAU (5)
€5m
GRA (10)
€4m
FL (5)
€3m
FZ (6)
€3m
FW (7)
€2m
FA (4)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
FC Winterthur and FC Luzern have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (16)
€33m
FL (14)
€24m
FB1 (10)
€16m
FSG (11)
€14m
LAU (10)
€13m
FS (12)
€9m
SF (12)
€8m
FL (12)
€8m
GRA (15)
€7m
FZ (14)
€6m
FA (13)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
FC Winterthur's defence is €6m less valuable than FC Luzern's (€2m vs €8m).
Switzerland: Super League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Basel 1893
Servette FC
BSC Young Boys
FC Lugano
Lausanne
FC Zurich
FC ST. Gallen
FC Sion
Grasshoppers
Yverdon Sport
FC Aarau